178
FXUS64 KOUN 301830
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1230 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Below normal temperatures persist into early this week, with a
   chance for light wintry precipitation Monday. Little to no
   accumulation is expected.

 - Temperatures moderate Tuesday, ahead of a cold front that will
   bring colder weather late Wednesday into Thursday.

 - There is a chance for light wintry precipitation Thursday into
   Thursday night.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

In the wake of the departing trough that brought the cold front
yesterday, the surface ridge will push across the Plains with north
winds veering to the east through the day. Additionally, another
shortwave approaching the Great Basin with west-southwesterly flow
and ascent will give way to increasing cloud cover through the day
tonight and into tonight. Thus, temperatures may never warm above
freezing this today across portions of northern Oklahoma. In
general, highs will likely range from the lower 30s to lower 40s
(from north to south).

Cloudy skies tonight will help to keep temperatures slightly
insolated and around or above 20 degrees. Lighter winds will help
keep wind chill values in the mid-teens (across northern and western
Oklahoma) to the 20s (remainder of Oklahoma and into north Texas). A
shallow layer of moist mid-level isentropic ascent may generate some
light precipitation after midnight tonight, with increasing chances
from south to north across portions of south/central Oklahoma and
into northern Oklahoma. However, there is still a strong signal for
a dry sub-cloud layer in which any light precipitation may likely
evaporate before reaching the surface. Thus, a light drizzle of
rain/freezing rain would be the predominant precipitation prior to
sunrise with little to no accumulations expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Heading into Monday morning, the upper shortwave will continue to
bring stronger ascent and moisture into the Plains. Southerly
surface winds and warm air advection will attempt to warm
temperatures above freezing at the surface, especially across
portions of central/southern Oklahoma and into north Texas and play
a key role in the precipitation types. Surface moisture may also be
in question with soundings continuing to indicate a dry sub-cloud
layer, which may lead to virga (through evaporation/sublimation).
Thus any precipitation that develops is likely to be in the form
of a drizzle or light intensity. The highest chance for
accumulating precipitation amounts will be across southeast
Oklahoma where rain is the most likely precipitation type. The
best ascent and moisture in the dendritic growth zone (ice
formation) with the shortwave will be across Kansas and near the
Oklahoma state line with snow and/or ice pellets as the primary
type. There is a low-to-medium (20-60%) chance for snowfall
greater than 0.1" across far north-central and into northeast
Oklahoma. Potentially warmer surface temperatures across central
and southern Oklahoma and into north Texas will give way to light
rain to freezing drizzle as the primary precipitation types. Any
wintry accumulation of ice will be greatest along elevated
surfaces such as bridges and overpasses as ground/road
temperatures still appear warm enough for melting upon impact.

The shortwave will quickly move out by Monday evening with dry air
bringing an end to any precipitation chances and clearing skies from
west to east. Monday night will feature lows in the teens to lower
20s with radiation cooling from clear skies and light winds. Tuesday
will feature southerly return flow with temperatures warming back
into the upper 40s to 50s, along with sunny skies and low-end breezy
winds across western Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Temperatures will moderate by Tuesday as mid-level heights rise
with a return to southerly winds. High temperatures Tuesday
afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F.

The next cold front will move through during the day Wednesday
as a mid/upper-level trough embedded in the polar jet stream
amplifies across the Great Lakes region. Depending on the timing
of the front`s passage, some locations may experience falling
temperatures Wednesday afternoon. This cold front will return us
to below-normal temperatures Thursday with highs likely in the
30s and 40s deg F.

In addition, there is the potential a wave in the subtropical jet
stream may provide enough synoptic-scale ascent in the front`s
wake for a chance for precipitation Thursday into Friday.
Depending on temperature profiles, there is the potential for a
wintry mix--especially across the north and west (where the air
mass will likely be colder). However, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty on the exact track of the wave and the northwest
extent of any precipitation. Therefore, the highest chance of
precipitation is across southeast/south central Oklahoma, where
temperatures are expected to be above freezing.

Similar to the previous cold air mass, temperatures are expected
to quickly moderate by Friday and Saturday with a return to
southerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

All of our terminals are likely to remain in a VFR category
throughout the forecast period. Overcast Stratus deck expected to
increase under current broken/overcast mid-level deck after 00Z
and expecting ceilings to lower between 040-060 feet yet still
maintaining VFR conditions. With another night of subfreezing
temperatures there is a very low probability for a wintry
precipitation mix generally east of the I-35 corridor to a "cold"
rain in slightly warmer southeast Oklahoma after 06Z. However,
probabilities are too low at this time to placed into the terminal
forecasts except for KDUA in southeast Oklahoma. As a result
terminal KDUA has a PROB30 for "cold" rain between 14-18Z which
could lower the ceiling there to an MVFR category. As far as
winds, a surface high across the U.S. Northern Plains region will
maintain north to north-northeast surface winds across our
terminals around 10 kts through 00Z. After 00Z surface winds
should veer more easterly tonight at 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  28  36  21  50 /   0  20   0   0
Hobart OK         26  41  19  52 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  33  42  22  54 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           22  37  19  53 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     24  33  17  48 /  10  20   0   0
Durant OK         33  38  24  48 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68