079
FXUS64 KOUN 122234
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
534 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

  - Elevated fire weather conditions are ongoing this afternoon
    across west central into northern Oklahoma.

  - Rain and storms likely across the northwest of Oklahoma
    tonight through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Very warm and breezy conditions will continue this afternoon with
a modest surface pressure gradient in tandem with a low-level
thermal ridge. Afternoon highs this afternoon will range from the
mid 80s to mid 90s deg F, which is ~15 deg F normal.

Tropical moisture (remnants of what was once Tropical Storm
Raymond) is lifting to the northeast into the Southern Plains,
which is resulting in abundant mid to high level clouds across
western Oklahoma/north Texas into northern Oklahoma.

Elevated fire weather conditions are ongoing due to these warm
and breezy conditions, especially across west central into north
central Oklahoma. This area is between the denser mid to high
level clouds to the west and the lighter sustained winds to the
east. Elevated fire weather conditions should end around sunset.

By tonight, a trailing cold front will advance southward into
northwest Oklahoma as the parent mid/upper-level trough lifts to
the northeast across the Northern Plains. The aforementioned
tropical moisture will interact with the weak cold front. As a
result, scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected to develop across northwest half of Oklahoma late
tonight/toward sunrise.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected on Monday
across the northwest half of Oklahoma. There will be a tight
gradient with rain chances decreasing markedly southeast of I-44.
Some locations will likely receive appreciable rainfall with the
potential for 0.50 to 1" of rainfall across west central into
north central Oklahoma.

There will also be a tight temperature gradient along the I-44
corridor with the cold front and widespread precipitation.
Temperatures will range from the 60s across northwest Oklahoma to
near 90 deg F across southeast Oklahoma.

The cold front will stall and dissipate Monday night into
Tuesday. As a result, warm, above-average temperatures will return
across the entire area Tuesday afternoon with highs generally in
the 80s to near 90 deg F. Dry conditions will return Tuesday
afternoon as well.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Upper ridge will then take control, at least for a short time before
stronger western trough takes shape and shifts east toward the
central part of the conus by late week. This will bring another cold
front and additional rain chances to the area by Friday. Model
differences then begin to emerge as we go into the following weekend
with regards to strength and timing of upper troughs and surface
cold fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Light rain/sprinkles will be
possible this evening/overnight with rain chances increasing
Monday morning generally along and northwest of I-44. A front is
expected to move into NW parts of the area late tonight/early
Monday and continue to move across portions of the area during the
day Monday causing winds to shift.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  68  79  65 /  10  20  50   0
Hobart OK         91  68  79  62 /  10  20  50   0
Wichita Falls TX  92  70  86  63 /   0  10  20   0
Gage OK           85  60  69  60 /  10  30  70  20
Ponca City OK     91  66  75  64 /  10  30  70  10
Durant OK         90  65  89  62 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25