461
FXUS63 KPAH 042344
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
544 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest air this snap is ongoing, and well below normal
  temperatures ride into and thru the weekend. Temperatures
  finally return to more seasonable levels by the middle of
  next week.

- Low end precipitation chances along the KY/TN and MO/AR border
  tonight and area-wideSaturday night into Sunday morning, but
  amounts and impacts look to remain negligible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The right rear quadrant of a 150-160kt jet maxima sits overhead
this afternoon. Just to our south, and right along the southern
CWA border fifth rain/snow is blossoming, the vast majority of
this activity should stay to the south of the CWA and what
precip does fall is unlikely to cause any kind of impact, or
even measurable precip. We are on the cold side of a front that
moved through last night with moderate, and slowly easing north
to northeasterly winds and persistent lower level clouds that
are starting to break up from west to east but will probably
tend to stick around most of the day today.

Tonight that cloud cover should start to back down and we look
to drop into the mid to lower 20s for mins tonight. We stand to
see a little more sun tomorrow although temperatures likely
remain well below normal. Another polar front is progged to plow
through on Sunday. Small snow chances are associated with this
front but moisture remains highly limited jammed between two
polar airmasses. Sunday afternoon looks cold and windy behind
this front. The surface high pressure ridge behind the front
quickly establishes during the day Monday and our flow looks to
turn out of the south becoming quite brisk.

A strong shortwave then approaches mid next week bringing yet
another strong front. The airmass behind this front is cold but
it didn`t have as much time to "charge up" over the poles and
northern Canada but will likely be sufficient to drop our
temps back to below normal by late next week after a couple days
closer to seasonal norms. No significant precipitation systems
are apparent through the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Low MVFR or even flirting with IFR cigs likely will continue
across the southeast half of the region into Friday morning
before gradually eroding. Further northwest, KCGI has gone to
VFR and likely will stay there. A low stratus deck continues to
pester KMVN but guidance hints at them clearing by later
evening. Some fog is possible at these terminals that clear.
Soundings indicate BR continuing overnight in areas socked in
with the low status, which may limit vsbys to at least MVFR
levels.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...SP