616
FXUS63 KPAH 211111
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
511 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than normal temperatures and breezy conditions are expected
  the next two days. Jacket weather is finally here.

- A light rain/snow mix is expected across southwest Indiana and nearby
  areas of southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky late this
  afternoon and evening. No impacts though.

- Temperatures moderate back to near normal (50s) on Saturday
  and above normal (60s) Sunday and Monday. Afterwards a return
  to below normal temps appear likely mid to late week
  including Thanksgiving Day.

- Light rain is possible Sunday night into Monday. A better
  chance for widespread rains may return next Wednesday into
  Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A deep upper low over the Great Lakes will carve out an amplified
trough across the eastern U.S. through Friday. An initial lobe of
energy diving south may lead to some very light rain (possibly mixed
with a few snow flakes) this morning near I-64. At the surface, low
pressure across Lake Michigan will dive south into Indiana through
this evening. Forcing will be rather strong for widespread
precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, to develop to the
northeast of our cwa this afternoon and continue into tonight.
Southwest Indiana and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and
northwest Kentucky appear likely to be clipped by some of this late
this afternoon and evening. Soundings indicate the freezing level
isn`t far off the surface, suggesting some snow mixing in is
certainly a possibility. No impacts/accumulations are expected
though given air temps in the upper 30s to around 40 along with warm
ground temps.

Tight pressure gradient will be in place today with northwest winds
gusting 25 to 30 mph. Wind chills likely will remain in the 30s for
most of the area through the afternoon and then drop into the 20s
again tonight into Friday morning. Winds slacken somewhat on Friday
but still remain elevated with gusts of 15 to 20 mph.

A brief bout of upper level ridging develops on Sunday with
southerly flow returning helping to boost highs back into the 60s.
Northern stream energy will slide across the Great Lakes on Monday
leading to a cold front moving through our area. Best forcing
remains well north of us though, so precip should be rather light. A
return to below normal temperatures is expected starting on Tuesday
and could linger through much of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

The ECMWF and it`s ensemble have been suggesting a stronger low
pressure system to track into the mid-Mississippi Valley region on
Thanksgiving Day resulting in a rather wet holiday. The GEFS is
starting to show that as well, although with less QPF. Meanwhile,
the deterministic GFS and Canadian keep us dry with high pressure
entrenched across the region. Therefore, confidence isn`t great, but
would tend to lean slightly toward the wetter solution
materializing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

West-northwest winds will increase this morning becoming
sustained 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Low VFR cigs are
sinking south into northern terminals currently and may become
MVFR for a period later this morning before scattering out this
afternoon. Another period of MVFR cigs are likely to slide
southwestward this evening and overnight. -RASN showers are
possible around KEVV/KOWB this evening accompanied by some vsby
restrictions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP