411
FXUS63 KPAH 271946
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will increase in coverage over the weekend
  and continue through Monday. Torrential downpours, lightning,
  and some gusty winds will be possible.

- Temperatures will be cooler this weekend (mid 80s to near 90),
  but humidity levels remain high keeping heat index readings
  in the mid to upper 90s.

- Dry weather is expected by Wednesday/Thursday of next week,
  along with somewhat lower humidity levels. Temperatures
  remain warm in the upper 80s.

- The 4th of July holiday currently looks rather hot (lower 90s)
  with a low chance (30%) for showers and storms.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The upper level ridge, which has resulted in 7 straight days of 100
degree heat index readings, continues to break down. Weak
disturbances in the flow aloft will lead to an increase in shower and
storm coverage this weekend. This will result in lower temperatures,
with highs ranging from the mid 80s to near 90. Humidity levels
remain high though (dewpoints in the low to mid 70s), so it will
still feel quite uncomfortable. Pwats are progged to be around 2",
maybe slightly higher on Sunday. Shear is very weak, so continue to
deal with very pulsy convection. Can`t rule out a strong or briefly
severe storm, but overall threat for that is quite low. Torrential
rainfall is possible, which could lead to localized flooding
concerns.

Shower and storm chances remain high on Monday ahead of a fropa
forecast to dive south across the area Monday night. Some lingering
activity is possible on Tuesday across the south (thanks to
lingering low level moisture). May finally start to get lower
dewpoints (below 70 degrees) in the north on Tuesday and across the
entire area on Wednesday. This may only last one or two days though
before higher humidity creeps back in by the 4th of July holiday.

Dry weather is expected mid next week, but additional rain chances
may return by the 4th of July associated with northwest flow on the
periphery of the upper ridge which appears to build back towards our
area late in the week. Not that we are expecting much of a cool down
in between, highs still in the upper 80s mid week before nudging
back into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Cu has developed along with some lingering high clouds. Will see
isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA develop this afternoon, with areas
near KMVN and in the KY Pennyrile most favored initially before
spreading to other areas of the cwa late afternoon into early
evening. The possibility exists for some convection to
linger/regenerate overnight into Saturday morning, but
confidence is too low to include mention at any terminal.
Depending how that evolves will dictate which areas see the more
pronounced activity tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions expected
through the period, outside of brief reductions due to
convection.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP