674
FXUS63 KPAH 030716
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
116 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy and cold start today with the potential for
  areas of freezing fog early in the Ozarks.

- Cold, winter-like temperatures hold thru the rest of the week
  with lows each night falling into the teens and 20s. Single
  digit wind chills are forecast late Wednesday night into early
  Thursday morning for northern portions of southeast Missouri
  and southern Illinois.

- The remainder of the cold week is mostly dry, but there are
  several small chance precipitation events that clip nearby
  later this week and weekend; something to keep an eye upon in
  case they become more of an influence in the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Return flow southerlies develop today as surface high pressure
ridging overhead shifts to the east. Nighttime microphysics
satellite channel shows low stratus developing in the Ozarks
where there has been clearing; we`ll have to watch for the
development of freezing fog, where our headline exists, as some
guidance suggests TDD`s stay AOA 2-3F.

As the aforementioned surface high shifts east, a cold front
drops down and makes passage across the Ohio Valley. It is
moisture starved on its southern end in the lower OH Valley, so
we don`t expect much out of it in terms of pcpn; maybe a few
flurries or light snow flakes are seen along/north of the I-64
corridor. A strong 1030 mb surface high reinforces our cold air
mass with another blast of arctic cold, with lows in the teens
in our north/west, where Thursday morning wind chills drop into
the single digits along our northwest border counties in
SEMO/SIL. And Thursday temperatures remain largely below
freezing, with highs only in our southern border counties
exceeding the 32F mark but staying in the 30s. That`s the
coldest part of the week of below normal temps...we moderate
back a little closer to seasonal norms but remain just (5-10F)
shy thru the weekend.

Another glancing shot of low end pcpn comes late Thursday night
into Friday morning as moisture overruns from the south, and the
NBM clips our southeastern counties. At this stage of the game,
pops are low enough with minimal qpf that unless the system
wobbles closer, it should keep the bulk of its impacts just
outside our CWA.

Something to watch: the late weekend pop/system. The 00Z GFS is
aggressive and develops a system that shows similarity to our
recent snow system, in establishing a deformation zone field of
qpf to our northwest (up to .3 liquid) that ultimately phases
with a deeper overrunning field of qpf to our southeast. A sharp
upper trof develops a surface reflected wave of low pressure
and rides it across the lower MS Valley on a track not too far
to our south. With respect to pops here, the NBM dismisses this
solution almost entirely, but it bears watching if things
should eventually swing toward, or closer to, its particular
output from this run.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

It looks like our terminals will remain largely socked in as low
MVFR to at times IFR bases hold; satellite does show some
BINOVC in our west that could scatter bases at the nearest
terminal at KCGI. Otherwise we`ll need the daytime to work on
eating at the clouds, which should occur by afternoon as return
flow southerlies establish on the backside of the departing
ridge...when an improvement to an all VFR bases/vsbys forecast
ensues. More low bases however, may be incoming with a front
that drops into the picture late tonight...so restricted cigs
are anticipated again at least at KMVN toward the end of the
planning phase hours of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ100-
     107>109.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$