843
FXUS63 KPAH 151644
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1144 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and storm chances continue through mid week.
  Highest chances appear to be focused tonight through Monday
  and again late Wednesday into early Thursday. Localized heavy
  rainfall may lead to flooding issues.

- Humidity levels will remain high through the week and temperatures
  will creep into the upper 80s by mid week.

- Hot, humid, and dry conditions are forecast next weekend with
  highs in the 90s and heat index readings around 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The upper level pattern will feature troughing across the central
CONUS sandwiched in between ridging near the Southeast U.S. coast
and across the southwest U.S. through Thursday. At the surface,
moist southerly flow (dewpoints in the lower 70s) will continue to
stream northward across our region through mid week. This will
provide fuel for daily chances for showers and storms (typical
summer-time!). There does appear to be two periods where more
widespread activity is expected. The first is from tonight through
Monday associated with a weak wave pushing east from the Ozarks and
across our cwa. The second is a northern stream wave and associated
cold front that move into the region later Wednesday and may linger
into Thursday.

Precipitable water values will remain high, particularly Sunday
night/Monday and again later Wednesday into early Thursday. They
should be around 2" both of these periods, supporting very efficient
rain producers from convection. HREF probability matched mean
indicates pockets of 2-3" through Monday evening. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some 4" reports again, as indicated by the HRRR and
ARW (which would support some fairly substantial flash flooding).
Again, this should be fairly localized, with many areas only
receiving 0.5" or less.

Regarding severe storms, the best chance looks to be late Wednesday
afternoon into the night when a cold front sinks south towards our
region. Should see 0-6 km shear values of at least 30 kts (although
the stronger flow certainly looks to remain north of us). CSU-MLP
probabilities indicate some 15% severe. Beforehand, there actually
is a little bit of shear showing up in guidance on Monday. Maybe
pushing 25 kts or so. Could be just enough to gen up somewhat
organized convection that could produce some stronger wind gusts.

The upper ridge to our west will build east Friday into next
weekend, becoming centered over the Ohio Valley by next Sunday. This
will effectively squash our daily precipitation chances, keeping us
dry for several days. Looks like our first 90s of the year are very
likely next weekend, which combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, should lead to heat index readings around or just above 100
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Lingering low cigs, especially at KEVV will become VFR this
afternoon with isolated showers and storms confined to mainly
southwest Indiana and western Kentucky. A greater risk for
showers arrives early Monday morning with a risk for scattered
convection developing towards the end of the TAF period. Patchy
fog is possible around 08z that may lead to MVFR/IFR conditions,
but model time heights indicate some of this may simply be low
stratus that will continue to build in from the southwest
through the morning hours. Light & variable winds turn south to
southeast between 3-5 kts on Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DW