844
FXUS63 KPAH 041835
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1235 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest air this snap is ongoing, and well below normal
  temperatures ride into and thru the weekend. Temperatures
  finally return to more seasonable levels by the middle of
  next week.

- Low end precipitation chances along the KY/TN and MO/AR border
  tonight and area-wideSaturday night into Sunday morning, but
  amounts and impacts look to remain negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The right rear quadrant of a 150-160kt jet maxima sits overhead
this afternoon. Just to our south, and right along the southern
CWA border fifth rain/snow is blossoming, the vast majority of
this activity should stay to the south of the CWA and what
precip does fall is unlikely to cause any kind of impact, or
even measurable precip. We are on the cold side of a front that
moved through last night with moderate, and slowly easing north
to northeasterly winds and persistent lower level clouds that
are starting to break up from west to east but will probably
tend to stick around most of the day today.

Tonight that cloud cover should start to back down and we look
to drop into the mid to lower 20s for mins tonight. We stand to
see a little more sun tomorrow although temperatures likely
remain well below normal. Another polar front is progged to plow
through on Sunday. Small snow chances are associated with this
front but moisture remains highly limited jammed between two
polar airmasses. Sunday afternoon looks cold and windy behind
this front. The surface high pressure ridge behind the front
quickly establishes during the day Monday and our flow looks to
turn out of the south becoming quite brisk.

A strong shortwave then approaches mid next week bringing yet
another strong front. The airmass behind this front is cold but
it didn`t have as much time to "charge up" over the poles and
northern Canada but will likely be sufficient to drop our
temps back to below normal by late next week after a couple days
closer to seasonal norms. No significant precipitation systems
are apparent through the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Persistent low (IFR to low MVFR) clouds seem more likely than
not to hang on for most of the rest of the day south of I-64.
Poorer visibilities and lower ceilings are expected the closer
you get to the KY/TN and MO/AR border through the next few
hours as weak precip moves across western TN. There is some
pressure from the west to clear out and places like CGI have the
best chance today but the highest probability - through 06z or
so is for the clouds to stick around.

Some improvement is possible early Friday morning but clearing
may only serve to lead to ground fog. Better overall conditions
seem plausible for Friday as the parent upper storm system
slides slightly further east.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG