220
FXUS63 KPAH 062250
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect till 8 PM for areas south of
  a line from Greenville, MO to Murray, KY for heat indices over
  100 degrees.

- Tomorrow (Labor Day) still looks to be the best day so far
  with highs right around 90 and dew points in the mid to upper
  50s.

- Heat indices climb into the 100-105 degree range again on
  Wednesday afternoon.

- Widespread showers and storms are possible Wednesday night
  through Thursday with a 70% chance up north to a 30% chance
  down south. Conditions potentially remain unsettled through
  the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Looking at increasing northeast winds today with sfc high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes. Even with the cold front just south
of the area this afternoon, the cooler and drier air is lagging
behind a bit. Therefore a Heat Advisory is in effect till 8 PM for
areas south of a line from Greenville, MO to Murray, KY for one more
day of heat indices over 100 degrees. Tomorrow (Labor Day) still
looks like the best day with highs right around 90 and dew points in
the mid-upper 50s. However, the upper ridge to the west looks to
shift and build back over the region and brings us a warming trend
for Tuesday and Wednesday unfortunately.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be uncomfortably hot again with highs
in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday, and highs in the upper 90s to 100
in a few places Wednesday. Dew points back in the mid-upper 60s are
expected both days. This puts heat indices back into the 100-105
degree range on Wednesday afternoon. The ridge breaks down to weaker
zonal flow by Wednesday morning and allows a cold front to swing
through Wednesday night into Thursday. NBM PoPs have increased in
the north this run to 70% up north and closer to 30% down south
Wednesday night. Thursday morning most of the Quad State is under 50-
70% PoPs with chances diminishing in the afternoon and evening. QPF
has also increased across the north with now around 0.75" up to
1.25" (this high end being more localized) from Wednesday night
through Thursday.

The weak zonal flow aloft continues through the weekend allowing for
some messy 15-25% PoPs each day. However, temperatures will be more
pleasant and hover right around or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure
over the Great Lakes produces dry northeasterly flow across the
region. Winds should remain elevated overnight, generally
staying in the 4-5 kt range before increasing to around 6-8 kts
during the day on Monday. Mainly clear skies are expected aside
from a FEW high cloud.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ100-107>112-
     114.
IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>003-006-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...SP