292
FXUS63 KPAH 181804
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
104 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures expected this week as welcome relief
  from the hot weather.

- An overnight MCS may bring some severe weather to our western
  most counties by tomorrow morning. We are in a Marginal Risk
  (level 1 of 5) for damaging winds.

- Tomorrow evening and into the overnight brings another chance
  for severe weather. We`re in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
  mainly damaging winds, but some hail and a tornado or two
  can`t be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Sfc high pressure overhead today is making for a very pleasant day
with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. A developing upper
level wave to the west looks to spark an MCS tonight that will work
its way toward the CWA by morning. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) over the far western portions of the CWA for this MCS late
overnight with primarily a damaging wind threat. After a lull
tomorrow afternoon and depending on where the boundary sets up will
determine where storms fire up again in the evening and continue
through Thursday morning.

We`re in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for tomorrow evening`s
activity with maily a damaging wind threat, but some hail and a QLCS
tornado or two can`t be ruled out where low pressure rides along the
boundary. Right now, timing for tomorrow is the lowest confidence
thing, but thinking mainly after 4 PM with the severe threat winding
down overnight.

By Friday the broad trof axis aloft shifts east and sfc high
pressure fills in overhead and brings back the pleasant, seasonable
weather. Highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s to end the week
and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions expected till around 10Z when an MCS may
approach from the west and bring showers and storms to MVN and
CGI in the morning. As the system is dying it may reach as far
east as EVV, but confidence is lower at this time. High clouds
will move in along with the remnant MCS. Winds will generally be
calm overnight then light and variable tomorrow with the
exception of within showers/storms.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD