543
FXUS63 KPAH 170551
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will produce heavy rain and areas of flash
  flooding through late tonight. A Flood Watch remains in effect
  for most of the area.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening.
  Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are the main
  threats.

- The hottest temperatures of the season are expected this
  weekend. Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are forecast,
  and there will be an elevated risk of heat-related health
  impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A quasi-stationary boundary remains so overtop the PAH FA, and
it will serve as a focus for our warm sector overrunning pool of
updrafts tapping good source moisture with dew points in the
lower half 70s. PW`s exceeding 2" are running top of the charts
at 99th percentile, so while overall instability is limited due
to existing pops/clouds, what does develop has good downpour
potential. We`ll be most on the lookout for repeat
showers/storms producing localized flooding, which will be
along and mainly south of the boundary. We like the coordinated
Flood Watch as drawn over all the area along/south of Route 13,
though we acknowledge minor adjustments could be forthcoming
pending the pm`s developments.

After a more-or-less busy convective 24 hours, tmrw may offer
some sort of relative pause before another spike in pops during
the mid week. The best chance of storms, including strong
storms, looks to be late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Instability/shear will ramp up just as the front is poised to
make Ohio Valley approach/passage. A slight risk of severe
storms is now projected along/ahead of the front for a good
portion of the PAH CWA. The main svr threat looks to be bowing
along the line with damaging winds/large hail potential, but
isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Last but not least will be a forthcoming weekend warmup that
looks to draw in the hottest air of the season. Strong ridging
aloft will help temperatures warm into the lower to middle 90s,
and with no break in 70F+ dew points, this will push the HI`s
into triple digits that may well last into new week, as the
8-14 Day outlook continues a slight heat risk.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

There will be a lull in shower activity overnight, but
additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected after
16-18z window, with isolated to scattered coverage nearest to
EVV, PAH, and OWB. Cig will drop to MVFR or IFR overnight, with
gradual improvement back to VFR expected by the late morning or
afternoon hours. Winds will be light and variable overnight,
coming light from the S to SSW after daybreak.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS/JGG