290
FXUS63 KPAH 151147
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
547 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures can be expected again today,
  along with gusty southwest winds.

- The passage of a cold front tonight will bring readings back
  down to seasonable readings Sunday into Monday.

- A warm front lifting into our area Monday night will bring
  showers and some thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday
  morning.

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will return for
  the second half of the work week, with rainfall amounts of 2
  to 3+ inches possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Models continue to bring a cold front through the PAH forecast
area tonight. Ahead of the front, well above normal temperatures
can again be expected today, with highs in the middle to upper
70s. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts of
25 to 30 mph. The front will move through this evening into the
early morning hours. Models keep any precipitation east of our
area, but a few sprinkles are not out of the question east of
Interstate 69 this evening. Behind the front, temperatures will
cool down to near seasonable readings for Sunday into Monday.

Late Monday into Monday night, models show a surface low in the
Central Plains lifting a warm front into the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys. The low will move along the front
through our area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a trailing
frontal boundary that will set up near our area into mid week.
Scattered showers will develop across the western half of the
PAH forecast area Monday afternoon, with chances quickly
increasing and spreading across our entire area Monday evening.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday night
into Tuesday morning as the low moves through our area. A few
stronger storms with some small hail are possible due to some
colder air aloft. Chances of showers will linger into Tuesday
night and Wednesday with the frontal boundary still in our area,
and temperatures will climb back to above normal values.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, another stronger surface low
and upper level wave will approach from the west. Widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop across our
region. Heavier rainfall will be possible, especially late
Wednesday night into Thursday night. Current rainfalls totals
have trended back upward, with amounts now in the 2 to near 4
inch range. The variability from run to run still lends itself
to lower confidence in timing of best chances and highest
rainfall axis, but we should see at least some decent rainfall
during the latter half of next week. Temperatures will remain
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Low level wind shear expected until 14-15z, then southwest
surface winds will increase to 12-16kts with gusts up to 25kts
that will persist into the afternoon. Winds will decrease to
6-12kt and shift to the west then northwest between 23z-05z with
the passage of a cold front. SCT-BKN clouds will be VFR through
the TAF period with no vsbys restrictions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST