398
FXUS63 KPAH 202312
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
512 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous to widespread rain showers continue this afternoon
  becoming more scattered tonight. More numerous to widespread
  showers on Friday into Friday night.

- Dry weather is expected for the weekend with near to slightly
  above normal high temperatures.

- Another storm system arrives early next week bringing more
  chances for rainfall to the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 511 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A front is lifting north through the region today producing
numerous rain showers. Overcast skies and weak lapse rates is
limiting instability today and as a result not expecting any
severe weather. Later tonight, there is indication that we see
drying in the 850-750mb layer which may result in some drier
periods or more scattered in nature overnight. Areas of fog may
also develop tonight especially in areas that see a lull in
precipitation. Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the
50s.

The front stalls out across the region tonight into Friday with
an additional wave of energy expected to traverse the Quad
State resulting in more chances of showers and storms. QPF
amounts generally look to range around a quarter to half inch on
Friday. Again, the lack of instability and forcing in general
should limit any severe weather chances. Precipitation looks to
linger into Friday night as a surface low tracks directly
through the region enhancing low level convergence. Eventually,
drier air filters in as high pressure builds in from the west.

High pressure building across the region this weekend will
bring dry weather conditions both Saturday and Sunday. High
temperatures Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and
low to mid 60s on Sunday. Another system will make its way
across the plains early next week. A surface low will lift into
the Midwest bringing a cold front into the region. Chances for
precipitation will return to the area on Monday and will
continue into the first half of Tuesday when a cold front
finally makes its way through the region. Behind the front,
longwave troughing becomes established across the country with
dry and cooler weather expected. The GFS develops another
shortwave late Wed night into Thu, but at this point it is an
outlier and the forecast will remain dry into Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

As a frontal boundary remains parked across the area, periods of
rain, drizzle, low clouds, and fog will impact all terminals
throughout the forecast period. Restrictions of IFR and LIFR
will be predominate, with cigs around 200 to 700 feet and vsbys
of 1 to 5 SM. Winds will be light and variable overnight,
increase from the S to SE around 5-10 kts Friday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DWS