489
FXUS63 KPAH 110438
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1038 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance of light snow Thursday night in southwest
  Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and portions of southern
  Illinois north of Route 13. Light accumulations, mainly in
  grassy areas, remain possible north of Interstate 64 in
  southwest Indiana.

- Much colder air will spread across the region this weekend
  with the coldest temperatures Saturday night into Sunday. Wind
  chills will fall into the single digits to below zero Sunday
  morning.

- Gradual warming begins early next week, with a chance of rain
  Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

An upper level trough moving across the Ohio Valley is bringing
a cold front through the region today. Behind it gusty
northwest winds are advecting a cooler airmass. Winds thus far
have remained below advisory criteria and have remained near
what was forecast. A few light radar echoes are still being
observed on radar but amounts look to be light. A northwest flow
pattern remains in place much of this week supporting colder
temperatures and mostly dry weather. An upper level disturbance
around late week will drive a surface low across the middle
Mississippi valley Thursday night. A warm front will lift north
across the region bringing slightly warmer temperatures with
lows in the 30s. Light snow is possible across the far north and
east areas of the forecast area, and very light snow
accumulations are possible mainly in grassy areas. At this point
no impacts are expected from this system.

High pressure nudges in from the northwest behind a frontal
boundary on Friday. This will bring a colder airmass spilling
into the region with an additional reinforcing round of colder
temperatures over the weekend. Another weak disturbance may
bring a round of flurries or light snow to far northern portions
of the area. The main story will be the cold temperatures
though. High temperatures on Saturday fall into the upper 20s
north of I-64 to as warm as the lower 40s across the TN state
line. After low temperatures in the single digits to mid teens
Saturday night, highs on Sunday may struggle to get out of the
20s followed my one more night of single digit to mid teens
lows. Factoring in the wind produces wind chills to below 0
across at least the north half of the region, with 0 to 5
degrees elsewhere.

Moderating temperatures will follow for early next week. Highs
on Monday warm into the mid to upper 30s, followed by 40s on
Tuesday with lows above freezing by Tuesday night. Much of the
period remains dry, although chances for showers do return to
the area Monday night into Tuesday as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

MVFR cigs across the northern terminals will gradually
transition to VFR Thursday morning. Intermittent periods of VFR
conditions are possible prior to then, especially at KMVN where
the clearing line is nearing. Otherwise, gradient winds will
gradually weaken overnight, with west to south winds between
5-10 kts during the day on Thursday. Clouds gradually thicken
again Thursday evening as a clipper passes by to the north. Any
brief precipitation across the northern terminals is expected to
not be impactful.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW