912
FXUS63 KPAH 100506
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1106 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very breezy conditions are expected tonight and Wednesday,
  Wind gusts 30 to 40 mph will be possible. As a result, a mild
  night with well above normal low temperatures is expected. Highs
  on Wednesday may struggle to reach normal levels due to cloud
  cover. Some light rain may sweep across the Evansville Tri
  State mainly after midnight tonight into early Wednesday
  morning.

- A chance of rain and snow is forecast over the Tri State once
  again Thursday night into early Friday. Temperatures will be
  above freezing, so no impacts are expected.

- A small chance of rain is forecast mainly over west Kentucky
  Saturday night near and just ahead of an Arctic cold front.
  This will take the Quad State briefly into the deep freeze
  Sunday. Wind chills Sunday morning will range from 0-10
  degrees, while highs Sunday afternoon will not reach the
  freezing mark and wind chills may not reach 20 over much of
  the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A Clipper storm system will push a deep surface low east across
the Upper Midwest tonight and through the Great Lakes Wednesday.
This will lead to a very strong pressure gradient over the Quad
State tonight through Wednesday. Southwest winds will increase
through the night, maximize Wednesday morning and eventually
diminish by sunset. The winds will shift to the west and
eventually northwest by midday.

A Wind Advisory is not out of the question in the 06Z-18Z
period, but confidence is not high enough to go with one at
this time. When ECENS has a 100% chance of 35+kt gusts, it is
usually right, but it is not there, yet. The main concerns are
just how deep mechanical mixing will be tonight, and the strong
possibility of cloud cover holding down convective mixing
Wednesday. We will issue a Special Weather Statement to cover it
for now.

Also tonight, that clipper system will bring a chance of some
light rain through at least the Evansville Tri State overnight
into early Wednesday. Some of the guidance brings rain farther
southwest across the region, possibly all they way to the
Mississippi River, but the consensus keeps it up across the
Tri State. Temperatures will be well above freezing, so it
should be all rain regardless.

Thursday will be cooler after Wednesday`s cold frontal passage,
but south winds will return in the afternoon and continue
through Thursday night, as another disturbance dives southeast
from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley by Friday morning. The
associated precipitation will mostly stay northeast of the Quad
State, but a period of light snow will be possible over Pike
County Indiana. A light dusting will be possible on grassy
and elevated surfaces, but temperatures are expected to be above
freezing, so no travel impacts are expected.

As the disturbance exits the area, a weak cold front will pass
through the Quad State, but southwest to west winds for much of
the day will lead to a nice warm up to the upper 40s to lower
50s, if clouds cooperate.

A final disturbance may bring another period of rain mainly to
the southeast half of the region Saturday afternoon and evening.
Behind this disturbance, chilly surface high pressure will surge
through the area, briefly plunging the Quad State into the deep
freeze. Wind chills Sunday morning will be in the single digits,
while high temperatures will struggle to reach 30 degrees. Even
during the day, wind chills may not reach 20 degrees over much
of the region.

Heading into next week, a warming trend is expected with some
very small chances of precipitation. Temperatures will likely
remain below normal, but not nearly as cold as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Localized IFR to MVFR cigs at KCGI remain possible in the near
term; otherwise, gusty southwest winds will prevail through
Wednesday morning as a cold front approaches from the west.
Brief light rain showers are possible across the northern
terminals between 10-14z Wednesday, especially at KEVV/KOWB.
Behind the front, clouds will thicken, lowering to MVFR at
KMVN/KEVV/KOWB. Isolated sprinkles mixed with flurries are
possible, but no impacts are anticipated. Winds across all
terminals will shift west between 15-20 kts, with peak gusts
around 30-35 kts. WNW winds gradually lower to 7-10 kts
Wednesday evening, but MVFR to low VFR cigs will persist.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DW