279
FXUS63 KPAH 211137
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
637 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning.

- A small 10 to 20% chance of thunderstorms returns to the
  forecast Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Daily thunderstorm chances of 15 to 30% are forecast during
  the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Wednesday.

- Temperature and humidity levels will be near typical late
  August levels through the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Following Thursday morning`s very active weather, more tranquil
conditions are expected today. High pressure centered over the
Midwest will bring pleasant weather for late August today.
However, with clear skies, calm winds, and recent rain in spots,
areas of locally dense fog will be a concern this morning. A
Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory could be needed
later this morning.

Synoptically, the pattern over the next week will see H5 ridging
build and expand over the southwest and southern CONUS and
persistent troughing over the northern and northeast CONUS.
This will put the region into an NW flow pattern aloft.
Disturbances moving around the H5 ridge will bring the potential
for shower and storms, but predictability in these setups can
be quite low when it comes to details.

Right now, model guidance is in poor agreement about a surface
low moving through the Great Lakes region on Saturday with a
trailing cold front possibly kicking of a few storms Saturday
afternoon and evening. The NBM is pretty dry during this time,
but some models like the ECMWF are more bullish, so wanted to
call attention to this. Additional shower and thunderstorm
chances are forecast each afternoon and evening from Monday
through Wednesday. Details will become clearer as we get closer,
but it could possibly be an active pattern next week. Temperature
and humidity levels will be near normal levels for late August.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Lingering areas of MVFR fog or low stratus will give way to
quiet weather through the forecast period. Skies will be mostly
clear, save for passing high clouds and diurnal CU this
afternoon near EVV and OWB. Winds will be light from the N
around 4-6 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS