765
FXUS63 KPAH 152258
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
558 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather continues through the middle of the week
  with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy
  rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern.

- The best chance of a few strong to severe storms will be
  Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Damaging winds and
  large hail will be the main concern, especially across
  portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.

- Hot, humid, and dry conditions remain on track for next
  weekend with highs in the 90s and heat index values in the
  lower 100s. Moderate heat related impacts are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The synoptic setup remains unsettled through the middle of the week
as mid-level troughing prevails. A 500 mb shortwave will
approach the FA from the west tonight bringing increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms into the day on Monday.
Spatial coverage this afternoon will remain more sparse across
southwest Indiana and western Kentucky, but turns more numerous
and widespread over the entire FA during the morning hours. The
12z HRRR and HREF PMM continue to indicate the potential for a
narrow swath of 2 to 4 inches over southeast Missouri with up
to 1 to 2 inches across the rest of the FA. Given PWATs in the
99th percentile around 2 inches and a warm cloud layer of 13-14
kft AGL, torrential downpours will be probable with the
potential for localized flash flooding due to poor drainage and
runoff in prone low-lying locations. While the RAP supports
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, the lapse rates are very meager with
about 20-30 kts of sfc-6km shear at best. This should inhibit
the potential for organized strong storms in the afternoon
during peak heating, but a brief stray gusty storm cannot be
ruled out.

Moist southerly flow with dewpoints in the lower 70s will support
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday with heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remaining a concern. With that said, Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night will be more favorable for strong to severe
storms as a more amplified 500 mb shortwave ejects across the
central Plains with increasing forcing for ascent. In the wake
of a sfc cold front that will begin to approach from the
northwest, models support 340 to 345K of 0-3km theta-e combined
with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and a modest 30 kts of deep-layer
shear. Given 3-6 km lapse rates between 7.0 to 7.5 C/km and a 25
to 30K max theta-e difference, damaging winds and large hail
will be the main hazards of concern as storms will be parallel
to the 0-3 km shear vectors. SPC currently has a slight risk
progged in their D4 outlook in the far northwest while the
CSU-MLP and NSSL-ML guidance is higher with severe weather
probabilities for the entire FA. With the better forcing lifting
northeast Wednesday evening, uncertain how far southeast severe
storms will reach, especially in the vicinity of the Ohio River
with waning kinematics and thermodynamics. Overall, the severe
risk looks to be more of a lower end one that is typical for the
summer months.

While shower and thunderstorm chances may linger into Thursday,
a dry weather pattern settles over the FA Friday as a 594 dam
ridge of high pressure builds into next weekend. Although this
week will certainly be more hot and humid with highs trending
into the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s, the first 90s remains on track to arrive Saturday for much
of the region with a 60 to 80% probability progged by the NBM.
Lows at night do not provide much relief in the mid 70s. In
fact, NBM heat index values in the lower 100s are not far off
from reaching advisory criteria as the heat looks to persist
into early next week. The Heat Risk index supports at least
moderate heat related impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the next few hours at TAF sites.
Convection will start working in this evening from the southwest
with trailing rain and MVFR ceilings anticipated. More on than
off rain appears probable before potentially more of a break in
the early afternoon before thundershowers redevelop.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG