044
FXUS63 KPAH 042318
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through tomorrow for
  a prolonged dangerous heatwave with daily heat index values
  ranging from 103-110 degrees. There is a 30-80% chance of
  triple digit heat index values continuing into Sunday over
  southeast Missouri, the Purchase Area of Kentucky, and
  adjacent portions of southern Illinois.

- Near record high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100
  degrees and near record warm overnight low temperatures in
  the mid to upper 70s are expected to continue through at least
  Saturday. These high and low temperatures are 10-15 degrees
  above normal, and will elevate heat impacts to an extreme
  level even more through the start of the holiday weekend.

- An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over
  much of the region this afternoon, and widely scattered
  showers and storms will be possible mainly over the Evansville
  Tri State and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky Saturday
  afternoon. Little relief from the heat is expected, with only
  a 10-25% chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch where
  isolated showers and thunderstorms occur.

- Labor Day will be the choice day of the weekend, with highs
  mostly in the lower 90s, much less humidity, and a light
  northeast wind. The relative cool down will be short-lived, as
  triple digit heat indices return for much of the Quad State
  Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The region continues to sit squarely in the middle of upper
level ridging this afternoon. 500mb heights are about 594 dm,
surface temperatures are headed back to the upper 90s once again
with dewpoints in the low 70s. Noontime heat index readings are
108 to 112. High based cu are firing at around 6000-7000 ft. A
small shower or few may cook up through late afternoon. Extreme
heat and humidity persists tomorrow. Although jet- level flow
shifts to the northwest just enough to give us a little more
prospect of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Added a 15-20%
chance for most of the area in the late afternoon.

A "cold" front continues to be advertised for Sunday. There is
still a fair chance (40-60%) for 100-105 degree heat index
values for a few hours Sunday morning in the southwestern part
of the area but the front may slide through just quickly enough
to prevent that. It will still be hot however, with afternoon
maxes in the 91-93 range with dewpoints in the mid 60s.

A pocket of drier air at 850mb or so looks to mix down strongly
on Monday which should help make the humidity quite a bit
better. Max temps will be around 90. Tuesday and Wednesday look
hot with heat index values pushing back to or above 100 degrees.
Thursday and beyond there is model disagreement on the
prospects of another front moving through from the northwest.
Deterministic GFS is the strongest advocate for that in the 12z
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle. Can`t rule out
some patchy fog overnight, but like the last several nights the
pattern isn`t very conducive for it. SCT-BKN cu deck develops by
midday tomorrow and with a backdoor front sinking into the
region we likely will have at least isolated convection during
the afternoon. May eventually need some PROB30s for that.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Saturday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...SP