818
FXUS63 KPAH 281631
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1131 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue today
  through the holiday weekend.

- A few showers are possible today in the Ozark Foothills of
  southeast Missouri.

- The Lakes and Pennyrile regions of west Kentucky could see a
  few showers and storms late Monday into Monday night.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible across the entire
  area Tuesday, with better chances Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Models show an upper level trof passing over the region today.
The last several NBM solutions had been trending farther west
with today`s precipitation chances, and as expected, the eastern
edge of any shower activity will now just skirt far western
portions of the PAH forecast area mainly this afternoon. We will
see an increase in clouds across our entire area, and this will
help keep temperatures below normal today in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Dry conditions can be then expected tonight through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the NBM brings some low chances of
showers and storms into the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky.
These chances spread across the entire PAH forecast area
Tuesday as low level moisture begins to increase and better
northwest flow aloft develops. By mid week, models show a cold
front approaching from the northwest, bringing increasing
chances of showers and storms to our region Wednesday. Although
overall timing is still in question, it does look like we will
see a more active pattern next week.

Temperatures will continue to be below normal on into next week,
although highs both Friday and Saturday will be a little warmer
with readings just 2 to 3 degrees below normal. Humidity will
remain low through Labor Day with dew points mostly in the 50s,
keeping conditions quite comfortable. Dew points will creep
upward Tuesday and especially Wednesday ahead of our next
weather system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the terminals with SCT/BKN high-
level clouds. FEW/SCT mid-level clouds around 7-10 kft AGL will
begin to build in from the northeast tonight as a backdoor front
pushes south on Friday. Cannot entirely rule out patchy fog in
the vicinity of KMVN/KCGI, but confidence is too low to include
TAF mention. Calm winds tonight turn northerly around 3-4 kts
Friday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DW