177
FXUS63 KPAH 020432
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1132 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front begins to move in from west to east tonight into
  Friday bringing rain showers with PoPs peaking (80-100%) in
  the morning and early afternoon hours. No severe weather is
  expected, but some rumbles of thunder are possible.

- Small rain chances (10-30%) linger Saturday, but high pressure
  will build Sunday brining dry conditions once again.
  Temperatures should be close to seasonal norms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The large swirling upper low over the central Plains is hard to
miss when you take a look at our weather picture this morning.
Ahead of that low is rich east Pacific and Gulf moisture through
a deep column with PWAT values over 2 inches producing areas of
rain across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. A combination of jet
level and frontal ascent should keep a fairly broad area of rain
and embedded showers and a storm or two going. These will move
over the area tonight and through the day Friday. Peak rain
chances look to be Friday morning, but expect at least some
lingering rain to trail behind the cold front that should get
through the area by midday tomorrow. Instability continues too
look too meager for severe weather threats, and rainfall
coverage and intensity look too limited for much flood risk
given the antecedent conditions over the area.

Highs behind the front fall into the mid 70s. A reinforcing
front moves through Monday bringing drier and slightly cooler
air into the area which should help morning minimum temperatures
fall into the 40s. A little bit of a trend to warmer
temperatures looks plausible towards the end of next week but
nothing to the degree we are seeing today.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A frontal system is progressing from west to east through the
area overnight tonight. Showers are expected along and behind
the front into the morning hours. Some may be heavy at times and
reduce vsbys. Cigs are expected to gradually lower behind the
front and will remain MVFR with pockets of IFR through much of
the period and into tomorrow night. Winds will shift from
southerly to northerly behind the front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...HICKFORD