972
FXUS61 KPBZ 282323
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
723 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light rain shower/sprinkles chances increased slightly this
afternoon. No other major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mostly dry stretch of weather through Thursday with
warming temperatures, before a late week front returns
precipitation chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wraparound moisture/clouds from the lingering nor`easter will
continue to spin across our region today in northerly flow. A
few sprinkles or light rain showers remain possible near and
north of Pittsburgh this afternoon, especially in upslope-prone
regions, but limited lift and instability will keep any
precipitation totals very light. Temperatures should continue to
run a few degrees below climatology, save for areas near ZZV
that are receiving more sunshine and will be a bit closer to
normal.

The upper low associated with the coastal system will drift
northward across southern New England tonight towards the Gulf
of Maine, finally devolving into an open wave over the Canadian
Maritimes tomorrow night. Clouds will begin to break tonight as
this process begins. Any locations that manages to clear may
quickly fog in given the nearly saturated boundary layer and a
very weak surface pressure gradient.

The cloud decrease continues Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid-level
ridging crosses the Upper Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure
also arrives and remains in control into Thursday. The increased
sunshine and rising heights will push temperatures back above
normal while maintaining dry conditions. NBM probabilities for
80F or greater high temperatures that day remain in the 55 to
80 percent range for most non-ridge locations south of I-80.
Dewpoints in the lower 60s that day, however, point to less heat
stress - probabilities for Moderate or higher HeatRisk values
remain under 20 percent for the most part.

500mb flow flattens after Thursday as a shortwave trough crosses
eastern Canada. Strength and timing issues remain with this
disturbance, although most of the uncertainty lies to our north.
That said, at least scattered shower activity becomes more
likely Thursday night/Friday in the moistening warm sector with
an approaching front, with rain chances lingering into the
weekend. Severe weather potential looks muted by meager
instability, and probabilities for problematic rainfall totals
remain quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some light improvements have been seen in CIGs this evening
with HLG/BVI recently coming up to VFR. These minor
improvements likely stick around for a few hours before clouds
begin to break as the nor`easter moves further east. The
underlying saturated boundary layer and light winds favor fog
and low stratus formation beginning close to 06z and lingering
until after sunrise. Expectations of widespread IFR to LIFR
remain.

Fog and stratus lift and break by mid-morning tomorrow and
restrictions quickly flee the lowlands. Restrictions in BKN
MVFR stratocu could linger anchored to the ridges into the
afternoon hours but widespread VFR is expected by late tomorrow
afternoon.

With continued light winds, and high pressure settling in,
potential remains for another round of fog impacts Tuesday night
into early Wednesday.

Outlook...
VFR is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Restrictions are
possible Friday with showers returning.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...CL/AK