492
FXUS61 KPBZ 111807
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
107 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake enhanced snow showers continue across the region, steadiest
north and east of Pittsburgh. Snow showers shift northward and
slowly come to an end this afternoon and evening. A weak disturbance
Wednesday brings a rain/snow mix to the northern and eastern
portions of the region. High pressure promotes dry weather to end
the week as temperatures moderate.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow to slowly shift northward and taper off today
- Gusty winds to continue
---------------------------------------------------------------

Radar imagery shows several areas of lake enhanced snow showers
continuing to stream into far eastern OH and western PA. Visibility
reductions have been the largest hazards as most of this snow is not
accumulating on roadways (except in the heaviest showers). These
showers are expected to steadily shift northeastward and slowly lose
organization as the flow backs to the west and the best lake
connection shifts northward, out of our region.

The most persistent areas of snowfall overnight saw between 8-10
inches fall near the Venango/Forest County line and saw over a foot
of snow fall across eastern Tucker County. Additional totals through
the remainder of the afternoon are expected to be generally just a
dusting south of I-80 and perhaps another 0.5 inches on
grassy/elevated surfaces north of I-80 as the axis of snow showers
swings to the northeast. Given these trends, all winter weather
headlines will be allowed to expire at 1 PM.

With a tight pressure gradient winds are expected to remain rather
gusty through the afternoon (frequent gusts between 25-35 mph)
before the pressure gradient slackens overnight and winds calm some
but don`t abate.

High temperatures across the region are expected to remain south of
40 degrees and the highest elevations may not even crack freezing
today.

POPs increase again tonight across the northern half of the forecast
area as a warm front tied to weak SFC disturbance crosses the
region. This reintroduces snowfall chances across the forecast area,
highest north of Pittsburgh.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Passing disturbance maintains lake effect snow showers north of I-
80 and in the ridges on Wednesday
- A rain/snow mix turns to all rain and then ends across the
lowlands
----------------------------------------------------------------

Another shortwave rounds the base of the long wave trough Wednesday.
At the SFC a low will track eastward across Ontario and Quebec,
draping a cold front down through the OH Valley. The crossing of
this front will return a rain/snow mix to the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

The highest POPs remain in the north and across the ridges in
westerly flow. This westerly flow likely keeps the best lake effect
to our north and isn`t the most efficient wind direction for upslope
across our ridges either. 850mb temps are expected to warm between 7-
8 C over the next 24 hours but still remain below freezing. Many of
the forecast soundings suggest a melting snow falling across much of
the region early, reaching a SFC layer near to several degrees above
freezing before turning to more widespread rain as temperatures warm
and a rain/snow mix retreats into the higher terrain. A rain/snow
mix may turn back over to all snow as temperatures drop overnight
but by then the SFC trough will be exiting the region and moisture
will be fleeting. All of these combine to yield low snowfall totals.
Probabilities for 1 inch of snowfall from the NBM are less than 10%
and from the HREF peak in the 40-50% range in the eastern ridges.

Rising heights and warming 850mb temperatures translate down to the
SFC as warming temperatures; our highs tomorrow are expected to
return to the 40s across much of the region and could strike 50
degrees in the southern river valleys. Winds will still be gusty as
the SFC pressure gradient begins to tighten again, but wind chill
will be less of an issue with moderating temperatures.

POPs trend downwards Wednesday night as the weak SFC trough flees
eastward and high pressure begins to filter into the area. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will come up several degrees compared
to previous nights and portions of the region could stay above
freezing all night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
- Dry weather with moderating temperatures Thursday and Friday
- Precipitation chances return this weekend, mainly in the form
  of rain
- Pattern uncertainty increases early next week; low rain
  chances and near to slightly below-normal temps best forecast
  for now
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Isolated rain/snow showers may linger initially north of I-80
Thursday morning, but these should end by afternoon as surface
ridging and slowly rising 500mb heights take hold. Mostly dry
weather is then foreseen into Saturday with surface high
pressure tracking to our south over the lower Ohio Valley into
the Central Appalachians. The warming trend continues through
this period, with temperatures getting to around climatology by
Friday.

An approaching warm front may return light rain chances as early
as late Friday night, but the daylight hours of Saturday look to
be a bit more favorable for that possibility. Better rain
chances return for Saturday night into Sunday thanks to Great
Lakes low pressure.

Most ensemble members have a 500mb ridge axis crossing at some
point Saturday or Saturday night, but they continue to diverge
greatly thereafter. Some solutions hold on to ridging longer by
developing a cutoff upper low to our west and slowing the
pattern down, which would keep us a bit warmer. Meanwhile,
others feature an Upper Midwest shortwave knocking down the
ridge somewhat on Sunday, which would lead to another cooldown.

For now, the forecast of least regret appears to be continued
precipitation chances from Sunday into early next week given the
uncertainty, along with a drop to slightly below normal
temperature, but not as cold as early this week. At this time,
another round of early-season winter weather does not appear to
be in the cards through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Largely MVFR conditions prevail across the region. As expected, the
axis of snow showers is shifting northeastward and clouds have begun
to erode and lift at western ports. Snow showers can continue for
FKL/DUJ but are expected to wind down over the coming hours as the
flow backs to the west and snow showers are pushed further to the
north. VFR is expected to prevail at all terminals by this evening.

Winds will remain elevated for the remainder of the afternoon with
gusts as high as 25-30 knots possible for most terminals. Gusts are
expected to subside before 00z for most ports as mid-level clouds
filter in ahead of our next passing trough.

Restriction chances begin to rise again during the early morning
hours of Wednesday as snow showers and MVFR CIGs return to our
northern ports. Snow showers will transition to rain showers during
the day as temperatures rise. The southern expanse of these showers
still remains somewhat in question and has been included in PROB30
groups for BVI/PIT/AGC/LBE. South of these ports, showers are not
expected to bring restrictions.

Outlook... Showers chances and thus restriction chances rapidly
decline across the lowlands by 18z tomorrow. Showers can linger
across our northern ports into the evening and overnight hours.
Showers can also turn back over to snow Wednesday night as
temperatures drop. Showers are expected to wind down before 12z
Thursday. VFR returns Thursday and Friday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL/AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...AK