826
FXUS61 KPBZ 190637
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
137 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will end overnight, with rain chances returning Friday and
into Saturday. Milder temperatures can be expected with a
gradual warming trend the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
by
- Rain east of the ridges by sunrise.
- Stagnant overnight temperatures moderate to near normal this
  afternoon
- Dry conditions resume
----------------------------------------------------------------

Latest WV imagery shows the crossing shortwave trough axis just
moving into eastern Ohio. Stratiform rain associated with this
feature will continue early this morning with the highest
additional QPF south and east of PGH (trending higher to the
south), where 850-700 mb warm advection is strongest, and
consequently, the strongest lift as well. Latest analysis shows
the range of observed precipitation from 0.01" to 0.15 along and
north of I-80, gradually increasing to the south where sites in
WV have seen around 0.75" so far. Additional amounts overnight
will range from less than a tenth to 0.15" to 0.25" by the time
the shortwave exits east and rainfall ceases before sunrise,
particularly east of PGH.

Surface high pressure will build over the Great Lakes today
with h500 heights increasing between 6dm and 8dm by late
afternoon. The associated subsidence and drying should break up
lingering stratus by late morning to midday and allow high
temperatures to recover to near normal during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quiet through Thursday with rain returning Friday and
  Saturday
- Seasonable temperatures
----------------------------------------------------------------

The mentioned surface high should be centered over NY State by
this evening, and will continue to slowly transition ENE
overnight and Thursday, maintaining dry conditions and near
normal temperatures through Thursday.

An upper trough dropping across the northern Great Lakes
Thursday night will return rain to the region on Friday as the
as warm air advection, moisture, and lift ramps ahead of the
associated surface low. The surface low is progged to cross the
region overnight into Saturday morning.

24hr QPF Friday morning to Saturday morning ranges from (south
to north)-->

90th percentile: around a little over an inch across northern
WV to 0.70" along I-80...and 10th percentile: 0.00" everywhere.

Either way, there is decent confidence that the highest
amounts will be across southern Ohio and central/southern West
Virginia. Differences in the speed and depth of the trough is
the reason for overall forecast uncertainty and spread in
outcomes. The current forecast is slightly higher (but close
to) the latest NBM mean values, ranging from 0.25" along and
north of I-80 to 0.60" across northern WV zones.

Regarding temperatures...By Friday, high temperatures will be
5-10 degrees above average behind the warm front. The associated
cold front is then progged to cross the region Friday night
into Saturday. The northwesterly flow behind the front may cause
showery precipitation to linger through Saturday, especially
along the ridges due to orographic lift. Despite cold FROPA,
temperatures are expected to remain near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slightly above average temperatures continue into next week
- Dry conditions on Sunday, rain chances increase early next
  week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Zonal flow and surface high pressure will become the dominant
feature by Sunday, which will return dry conditions with subtle
height rises favored for a brief period of time. By Monday,
ensembles hint at upper- level troughing advancing towards the
region. This will bring the next best chance for rain Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last breath of rain has just cleared ZZV and is moving its
way quickly east. Rainfall is expected to be out of the region
by 09z. DUJ can see a little mix of rain and snow here over the
coming hours as temperatures have fallen, but recent rainfall
and warm ground temperatures support little, if any
accumulation. Behind the organized precipitation, BR is expected
to pick up across most, if not all, ports amid low CIGs and
ample moisture near the SFC.

The higher chance of restrictions remains in CIGs staying near
the floor, with FKL being the only port not sporting a >90%
chance of IFR CIGs between 06-12z (FKL is around 70%). Surface
moisture and a stable environment will likely keep restrictions
ongoing through daybreak with only meager rising and scattering
into the day tomorrow. The exception to this could be near I-80,
where models are rather enthusiastic in showing scattering out
perhaps as early as sunrise. For the remainder of the ports, the
most likely scenario remains slowly mixing into a broken MVFR
deck with probabilities of reaching VFR between 20-30% for most
ports south of I-80.

Winds remain largely light through the TAF period with a slight
Nerly or NEerly component through the day time.

Outlook... High pressure continues Thursday but surface
moisture will maintain a 50/50 shot at VFR/MVFR cigs through the
period. Chances of restrictions and rain increase with a
passing disturbance Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...AK