953
FXUS61 KPBZ 100828
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
428 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry and cool conditions into the upcoming
weekend. The next chance of rain arrives on Saturday, as
weakening Great Lakes low pressure combines forces with a
developing coastal storm system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Clear and quiet
- Frost/freeze conditions
---------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will continue to be in place across the area as
the dry period continues. Expect a few areas of valley fog
during the morning but most of the impact will be due to frost
and below freezing morning lows. These temperatures are
expected to rise out of the 30s by 9am - 10am.

The high will weaken as it moves eastward off the New England coast
by tonight with a ridge axis extending southwestward to eastern
Kentucky. This will help to maintain mostly clear skies
tomorrow. Wind is forecast to shift out of the southeast
allowing for air to warm as result of downsloping along the
ridges. Highs are forecast to reach into the mid to upper 60s,
around average temperatures for this part of autumn. Light
southeasterly wind will persist overnight inhibiting efficient
radiative cooling, resulting in warmer overnight lows into the
40s which is actually near normal values. The other factor in
helping maintain slightly warmer temps will be the cloud cover
approaching ahead of a trough from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight warming trend and dry conditions through Saturday.
- Increasing clouds Saturday afternoon.
----------------------------------------------------------------

The ridge will weaken as it moves eastward on Saturday. Most of the
region expected to remain dry with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
Increasing clouds expected to the northwest moving into Saturday
afternoon with an upper level trough approaching from the
northwestern Great Lakes region. In fact, the NBM is giving
roughly a 40% to 60% probability of temps over 70 degrees for
points south of Pittsburgh. With an increasing gradient due to
the approach of the trough from the northwest.

By late day on Saturday, a cold front will track southeast
into the Upper OH River Valley. This, combined with a low
pressure system tracking up the east coast will bring a chance
of showers to the northern and eastern forecast points. The high
center that has moved northeast over the New England area, will
effectively impede the track of the coastal low, keeping
rainfall chances over mainly the eastern portions of the
forecast area through Monday. There is some concern on the track
as to a slight shift to the east may take a lot of the moisture
to the east that expected. In fact, owing to a more eastern
location such as Latrobe, the NBM amounts give about a 20% of 1
inch of rainfall through 72 hours, and this is mainly east of
Pittsburgh. The lack of instability will mean thunder potential
will be the best Saturday night but cooler temps and a legit
lack of instability will mean showers for Sat through Mon. Thus,
no excessive rainfall nor severe thunderstorm outlook from WPC
and SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier pattern returns next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The Monday night period will feature clearing conditions as the
high center over New England finally exits allowing the coastal
low to track north into the Canadian Maritimes. Expect the
possibility of fog in the valleys when dealing with an exiting
system. A high center over the northern Midwest area will slowly
track southeast with the ridge axis extending southeast into the
Upper OH Valley. Besides some lake effect showers on Wed and Thu
over the northern counties, the bulk of the forecast area is
expected to remain dry through through Thursday. An approaching
trough may provide the potential for showers by late Thursday
and into Friday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the
TAF period as high pressure centered over the Northeast drifts
east. Steam fog may occur once again on the larger rivers given
expected cold air temperatures, but any terminal impact should
be brief at best. Light wind will become southeasterly this
morning.

.OUTLOOK...
VFR is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
Restriction and shower potential returns Saturday night through
early Monday as an upper level low tracks southeast across the
region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ020-021-029-
     031-073>076-078.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-077.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057-058.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001-002-
     510>513.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley