942
FXUS61 KPBZ 031107
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
707 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A small chance of rain on Sunday and the frost next week seem to
be more certain. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler and mainly dry from this weekend into early next
week. Frost is a possibility Tuesday and Wednesday mornings,
mainly northeast of Pittsburgh.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The broad trough will remain in place through the weekend and
into next week, with temperatures returning to seasonal values
for early October. The cooler temperatures will be reinforced by
a shortwave digging through the upper trough on Sunday. This
wave could pull moisture, from the boundary that becomes diffuse
to the south of our region after crossing today, northward,
leading to some possible showers south and east of Pittsburgh.
At this time the probability of more than a few light
showers/sprinkles is fairly low (Prob > 0.05 inches around 30%
in the WV ridges). At this point, the ridges are mainly an
slight assist in lift through the day on Sunday. After Sunday,
building surface high pressure looks to keep the region dry for
much of the rest of the week.

With the passage of the front finally on Sunday, the core of the
colder moving in behind that will be cold enough for a frost
potential on Monday night and Tuesday night. This probability
will mainly be east and northeast of Pittsburgh. The NBM still,
gives a good >50% prob for the frost. Otherwise, a dry forecast
persists.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expected to be the rule through the TAF period, broken
by fog formation along our rivers and ridges. Bouts of mist are
currently impacting FKL and LBE as MGW deals with low stratus.
These issues are expected to break by 14-15z.

High pressure is filtering into the north and will provide
mainly clear, calm and dry conditions across the region today.
Our boundary from yesterday is lingering south of the Mason
Dixon Line. Although we don`t anticipate precipitation across
MGW, mid-level clouds associated with a trough can continue
through the day. Winds are expected to be generally
northeasterly and less than 12 kts through the afternoon before
continuing to veer to southeasterly by tomorrow morning.

Continued surface troughing and the advance of an upper level
trough return cloud cover across the region closer to sunrise on
Sunday. At this time, most ports look to stay VFR but the sites
closest to the ridges would stand the highest chance of
restrictions.

Outlook... Troughing to the south may briefly lift north Sunday
morning bringing the potential for ceiling restrictions at the
southern terminals. High pressure returns by Monday and brings
VFR conditions likely only broken by bouts of morning fog.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Shallenberger
AVIATION...AK