632
FXUS61 KPBZ 011729
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
129 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable and dry conditions through Thursday will be followed
by a warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable conditions today.
- A frost advisory for portions of the area overnight.
-------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure and subsidence will dominate the pattern
through tonight with a light easterly wind. Mixing into the
subsidence inversion today may allow surface relative humidities
to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s in some areas and suppress
widespread cloud cover. Temperatures will remain near seasonal
normals.

Light easterly flow and mostly clear skies, save a few
transparent high clouds, will allow for efficient radiative
cooling tonight, particularly for sheltered valley drainages. A
frost advisory was issued accordingly where frost is most
likely, but frost could not be ruled our in isolated pockets
across much of western PA and the mountains of West Virginia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions prevail with a warming trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------

There is high confidence in continued high pressure through the
weekend with upper ridging setting in and taking high
temperatures up around five degrees between Thursday and
Saturday with a slow and steady warming trend each day. By
Saturday, highs will sit around ten degrees above normal with
lows near average with effective cooling each night. High
pressure will suppress rain chances with high confidence with
only a few high clouds most likely Thursday night into Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in a mostly dry and warm forecast through
  Sunday night.
- Lower confidence in Temperatures and rain thereafter.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

There has been slightly increased confidence in eastern
troughing sometime in the middle of next week, but there is
still some timing uncertainty in the arrival of that trough and
the amplitude of the longwave trough axis. This has reflected
in a downtrend and lowered standard deviation of the ensemble 2m
temperature outputs. It appears the most likely passage time
will be between Tuesday and Wednesday with temperature spread
roughly 6x to 8x more than Monday and a lowering of ensemble
medians. The range of "most likely outcomes hover with
temperatures somewhere around normal with probabilities of rain
 highest Tuesday and Tuesday night. Higher totals pushing 1"
would rely on a deeper and slower trough passage, while lower
end totals of rain would generally be more related to a weaker
or faster passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong high pressure over western Quebec with a ridge extending
southwestward to western Tennessee will maintain strength as it
gradually moves southeastward to northern New England by tomorrow.
During this time, northeasterly wind today will gradually veer
southeasterly by tomorrow morning. Mostly clear conditions today
with cirrus moving in overnight.

.OUTLOOK....
Patchy river valley fog is possible during the weekend,
otherwise VFR is expected through Sunday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ009-016.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...Lupo