372
FXUS61 KPBZ 190631
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
231 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Severe thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and evening
with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather returns Friday
with excessive heat probability increasing through the middle of
next week under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and isolated chances continue early this morning
- Severe storm chances increase between 12pm and 7pm today with
  an approaching cold front.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Scattered and disorganized showers and storms are ongoing early
this morning. The severe weather threat through this morning
remains lows, activity has become outflow-dominant. As a result,
the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled early.
Rainfall rates across the region are generally 0.25 to 1" per
hour. Despite moderate areas of rain, shear (20-25kts) has
diminish the potential for training or back-building storm
formation. Therefore, the threat for flooding remain low over
the next 12 hours.

The threat for severe weather increases from early afternoon
into late this evening as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The probability of organized convection rises
significantly after 12pm, with elevated chances above 70%
through at least 8pm. Areas east and south of Pittsburgh show
the highest joint probabilities of effect shear >= 30kts and
surface CAPE >= 1000J/kg.

High-resolution guidance indicates mid-level dry air will build
by late morning (after 9am), boosting DCAPE values above
500J/kg and enhancing the risk for damaging downdraft winds.
Strong updrafts exceeding 18,000ft will be most capable of
producing damaging wind gusts during the late afternoon hours.

In addition to severe winds, training showers and storms may
lead to localized flooding, particularly in areas that received
excessive rainfall over the last 24 to 48 hours. With saturated
soils in place, any heavy rain will quickly convert to surface
runoff in a short amount of time.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier conditions expected Friday into Friday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

The risk of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
will rapidly decrease after 10pm tonight as a cold front moves
through and high pressure builds from the west. However, a few
lingering showers may be observed east of Pittsburgh (near the
Laurel Highlands) through 2am to 4am.

If skies begin to clear overnight-particaularly across eastern
Ohio-patchy fog may develop early Friday morning.

Friday should finally see a drier day in the wake of the boundary,
though a change in airmass doesn`t appear too likely with a brief
bout of northwest flow quickly flipping west to southwest again
as high pressure builds in across West Virginia. NBM MaxT
spread is pretty small with highs likely in the low to mid 80s
and the start of a significant warm up headed into the weekend
and next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Excessive heat risk increases over the weekend and continues
  into early next week.
- Heat headlines are likely
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The story of the long term period is going to turn from rain and
flooding to a prolonged period of dangerous, excessive heat.
Saturday will be dry with highs ramping up into the mid to upper 80s
and dew points in the upper 60s.

Sunday begins the period of excessive heat. Longer range ensembles
exhibit quite a bit of certainty on a strong upper ridge building
across the eastern CONUS with a 90+% chance of 500 mb heights >590
dam. NBM probability for highs >95F peak at 70-80% in the urban
areas and valleys Monday and Tuesday. Combined with dew points into
the 70s, heat indices are likely to top the 100-105F range for
multiple days. Climatological tools point toward heights 2-3+ SD
above normal for late June. While we can get plagued by
diurnally driven clouds and precipitation in these patterns with
localized effects, a significant warm up to well-above normal
temperatures is likely, and the threat may be long lived over
the course of several days with little relief at night.
Probability for lows >70F is 80- 90+% Monday-Wednesday nights.
The takeaway message at this point is that several days
excessive, dangerous heat is increasing probability across the
entire area and compounding effects could be significant. If
trends hold, heat headlines will be likely. Record lows and
highs may be in jeopardy as well... see the climate section for
more.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our line of thunderstorms has largely fractured and moved east of
many of our ports. Largely VFR conditions exist behind this in drier
air. VFR and light rain is expected to persist over the next couple
of ours before moisture begins to increase near sunrise ahead of an
approaching front. This should allow CIGs to degrade and by 12z all
ports sport an at least 70% chance to see MVFR CIGs with IFR
probabilities favoring ports north and west.

An initial pre-frontal trough may help to spur some more intense
shower coverage across the region during the morning hours. Daytime
heating and mixing help to raise CIGs again (possibly back to VFR
areawide) as we move into the afternoon hours and allow for a
SW`erly breeze near 20 KTs to pick up across the region. The cold
front is expected to cross through the region after 18z and can help
initiate thunderstorms. These thunderstorms have been included in
Prob30 groups for all ports at this time. Damaging wind gusts remain
the largest threat for these storms.

Outlook... Outside of lingering moisture fueling isolated to
scattered showers Friday, the outlook favors a prolonged period
of VFR Friday afternoon into next week under the influence of
high pressure and large ridging overhead.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high maximum (left) and daily record high minimum (right)
temperatures will be in jeopardy starting this coming Sunday:

Sunday June 22nd
Pittsburgh, PA:         98F (1988)              75F (1988)
Zanesville, OH:         99F (1988)              71F (1997)
Morgantown, WV:         96F (1923, 1988)        73F (1988)
Dubois, PA:             92F (2024)              69F (2024)
Wheeling, WV:           95F (1923, 2024)        72F (2011)
New Philadelphia, OH:   97F (1988)              71F (1997)

Monday June 23rd
Pittsburgh, PA:         95F (1894)              76F (1888)
Zanesville, OH:         96F (1899)              70F (1975)
Morgantown, WV:         95F (1899)              71F (1957)
Dubois, PA:             88F (1966)              66F (2017)
Wheeling, WV:           94F (1948)              69F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH:   97F (1988)              72F (1948)

Tuesday June 24th
Pittsburgh, PA:         96F (1882)              72F (1884)
Zanesville, OH:         98F (1930)              73F (1937)
Morgantown, WV:         94F (1921, 1949)        76F (1924)
Dubois, PA:             88F (1966)              67F (2013)
Wheeling, WV:           98F (1933, 1943)        73F (1908)
New Philadelphia, OH:   94F (1964)              70F (1975)

Wednesday June 25th
Pittsburgh, PA:         98F (1988)              75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH:         101F (1988)             72F (1952)
Morgantown, WV:         94F (1921, 1952, 1988)  74F (1952)
Dubois, PA:             91F (1966)              67F (2000)
Wheeling, WV:           97F (1943)              75F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH:   92F (1966, 2002, 2005)  68F (2013)

Thursday June 26th
Pittsburgh, PA:         95F (1966)              75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH:         97F (1952)              73F (1952)
Morgantown, WV:         96F (1952)              74F (1952)
Dubois, PA:             91F (1966)              66F (2000)
Wheeling, WV:           96F (1943, 1952)        73F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH:   99F (1988)              71F (2022)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...MLB/Hefferan
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Cermak/AK
CLIMATE...MLB