Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 030437
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1137 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than minimal snow chances with a Wednesday night cold front,
high pressure should maintain dry weather through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Clear skies are expected tonight as high pressure moves east across
the Upper Ohio Valley region. A sufficient pressure gradient should
result in light S-SW wind overnight, limiting radiational cooling.
Lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday morning, though
still near seasonable levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Continued warm advection and plenty of sunshine will help
temperatures rise above normal Wednesday afternoon, with the majority
of the region getting to or above 50 degrees. The models still bring
a cold front southward across the region Wednesday night. Moisture
will remain very shallow near and behind the boundary, although
Lake Erie may provide a modest contribution in the post-frontal
northwest flow. Still, cloud tops will likely struggle to cool to
-10C. This will bring ice nucleation into question, and for now only
scattered snow showers are expected at most, with very limited
accumulation potential mainly north and east of Pittsburgh. Some of
the precipitation may actually be realized as sprinkles or very light
freezing rain, but will leave that detail out for now. Precipitation
will end Thursday afternoon, with a clearing sky for Thursday night
as high pressure returns from the Great Lakes. Temperatures will drop
back a bit below normal behind the front for Thursday and Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will largely remain in control at the surface right on
through Tuesday, with a continued dry forecast into early next week.
Upper troughing will remain in place through the weekend, pointing to
continued below normal temperature. However, by early next week, we
return to more of an upper ridging pattern in response to deepening
low pressure over the western CONUS. This will thus lead to warming
temperatures, with readings well into the 50s projected for Monday
and Tuesday. The next decent chance of precipitation may hold off
until a day or two past the end of the forecast period, depending on
when the western low can approach.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue to provide a mostly clear sky through the
TAF period, although a few clouds will begin to show up north of
Pittsburgh by midday tomorrow ahead of a cold front. A low level jet
ahead of that same front will create low level wind shear conditions
overnight at FKL and DUJ. Light and variable wind will settle more
towards a southwesterly direction overnight and Wednesday.

Surface winds will increase Wednesday morning with gusts to 20kts
possible during the afternoon.

.Outlook...
Ceiling restrictions are possible with a Wednesday night/Thursday
cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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