Area Forecast Discussion
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021
FXUS61 KPBZ 210917
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
517 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather is expected through the weekend, with only isolated
shower chances today. A cold front will likely generate showers on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Isolated showers continue to develop in warm, moist advection along
and near a sfc boundary. These should gradually diminish this
morning as convergence lessens as the boundary dissipates.

Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms develop during the
afternoon as a weak shortwaves rotates around the northern periphery
of the upper ridge in place across the region. Coverage of the
showers should be limited, so included the "isolated" description in
the forecast. Highs are expected to be around 10 degrees above
seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The wave should exit this evening, as the ridge builds back in
through Sunday. This should return dry and warm weather to the
forecast. The ridge is expected to break down late Sunday, as a
trough advances out of the Upper Midwest.

The trough, and its associated sfc cold front, should return showers
to the forecast late Sunday night and Monday as it approaches and
crosses the Upper OH Valley region. Left out a thunder mention with
little to no instability progged.

Dry weather should return Monday night as sfc high pressure begins to
build in. Highs Sunday should be around 15 degrees above average in
warm srly sfc flow, with more seasonable temperatures returning
after the Monday FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flat ridging ahead of a is progged to build across the region
through midweek, with dry weather and seasonable temperatures
expected. A trough is progged to advance out of the nrn Plains,
reaching the Ern Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley region Thu, returning
shower chances to the area. Dry and warmer weather is expected by Fri
under a building Ern CONUS ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increasing moisture under an approaching, albeit weak, disturbance
will result in additional cloud coverage but VFR should be
maintained. Isolated convection will be possible through the
afternoon.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely with a Monday mrng cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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