Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190705
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
305 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain chances
return with a cold front tonight and Saturday. Rain and snow
chances continue Saturday night and part of Sunday with another
reinforcing cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Dry weather should continue today as high pressure moves E
across the region. Mid and high clouds are expected to increase
this afternoon in warm advection ahead of an approaching
shortwave tracking across the Midwest. Highs should be around 5
degrees below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave trough, and its associated cold front, is progged
to cross the Upper OH Valley region tonight with a period of rain
expected. Reduced POPs for part of the day Saturday as the next
shortwave and reinforcing cold front drop SE across the Great
Lakes.

This trough is progged to cross our region later Sat
afternoon/night with rain showers expected. The rain should mix
with and change to snow in cold advection after FROPA. Some lake
and terrain enhancement is expected in NW flow, and some minor
accumulation is possible N of I 80. A better chance of
accumulation is expected especially in the higher terrain of WV
and MD, though the best moisture is progged below the dendritic
growth layer. This should keep potential snowfall rates limited.

Lake enhancement should continue early Sunday, though thinning
moisture profiles, lowering inversion heights, and building high
pressure should result in decreasing POPs through the day. Dry
weather is expected by Sunday night under the building high.
Below average temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure should maintain dry weather Monday. A crossing
trough should return minimal rain chances N of I 80 Tue. Dry
weather is then expected for the rest of the week under building
high pressure. Temperatures should continue to average 5 to 10
degrees below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence VFR forecast through this afternoon as high
pressure moves E across the region. Deterioration to MVFR is
expected for most ports this evening/overnight as a cold front
and rain moves across the region. SW wind should also become
gusty overnight with an increasing pressure gradient.

Outlook...
Widespread restrictions are likely with a reinforcing cold front
Sat/Sat night. Restrictions are possible in cold NW flow Sun.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ049-050-059-
     069.
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ014-020>023-
     029-031-073-075.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001>004-012-
     021-509.

&&

$$


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