584
FXUS61 KPBZ 231438
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1038 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through most of today. Shower chances
return late this afternoon and overnight. Seasonable
temperatures continue with several low probability shower
chances through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions this morning as ridging transitions over the
  region.
- High temperatures close to seasonal norms.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

The earlier valley fog has dissipated with daytime heating.
Surface ridging will begin to edge east of the region through
the day. High clouds are then forecast to increase form the west
through the morning, before starting to lower during the
afternoon as the middle levels start to moisten. High
temperatures will end up not too far from climatology as flat
ridging aloft moves through. The first rain will likely arrive
in the Zanesville area during the late afternoon, as dry low
levels inhibit precipitation from reaching the ground initially.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Precipitation returns late this afternoon and overnight.
- Expected precipitation totals between 0.25-0.50 inches.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Surface low pressure will cross the upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes by tonight with an upper trough. This will bring a cold
front through the area tonight and spread mainly rain showers
across the area by late this afternoon. Latest CAMs time showers
into ZZV around 20z and into PIT near 00z. However, very dry air
remains in place below about 600mb, and the column is unlikely
to saturate until after 00z (8pm), meaning only some patchy
sprinkles are likely before then. The cold front will cross
overnight, passing PIT around 06z. Showers will taper off
through the overnight. Rainfall totals will remain light,
generally between 0.2-0.4 inches.

The surface low will remain over Huron for much of Monday with
the upper trough axis remaining to our west over the Upper
Mississippi Valley. This will mean little change in air mass on
Monday as flow remains southwesterly and colder/drier air
struggles to reach our region. Without widespread rain, high
temperatures Monday afternoon should actually run a few degrees
warmer than today.

The upper trough axis nears the area by Monday evening, with
flow becoming more westerly. This should allow for an increase
in rain/snow showers near the lake and into areas primarily
north of I-80. Any snow accumulation Monday night should be
negligible, owing to limited moisture and a warm ground.

Little change is expected on Tuesday as the trough slowly shifts
eastward. Models still highlight a shortwave trough traversing
this flow Tuesday afternoon into the overnight, but trends have
continued to shift this south of our region, keeping most
precipitation across Kentucky and the Virginias. Did continue to
carry chance PoPs south of the Mason-Dixon to account for some
uncertainty in coverage, but this will likely decrease in future
cycles.

Temperatures on Tuesday remain similar to today and Monday,
though a few degrees cooler as meager cold advection ensues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower chances remain elevated with upper troughing.
- Temperatures remain seasonable through midweek.
------------------------------------------------------------------

High confidence, prolonged upper troughing continues through at
least Wednesday, with medium confidence in this feature lifting
out late week. Uncertainty through the early long-term will be
tied to light precipitation chances from additional shortwaves
meandering around the upper trough. Greater rain chances appear
to arrive into the weekend, though considerable uncertainty
remains in the ensembles.

Largely seasonable temperature should continue through mid-week
with persistent upper troughing. Warmer temperatures look to
arrive late week into the weekend as this trough lifts out of
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR maintains through much of the day today. Light and variable
winds become SE and increase in speed through the day. Afternoon
gusts are expected between 15-20KTS. Precipitation filters into the
region from the west between 21-00z, but has a lot of dry air to
overcome at onset. As such, the first couple hours are likely
dominated by virga and a lowering cloud base more than any
restrictions. Probabilities of MVFR increase rapidly by 06z and
most terminals feature a >90% chance of seeing MVFR conditions
sometime between 06-12z Monday.

Outlook...
VFR is expected to return during the daylight hours of
Monday. Prolonged eastern CONUS troughing is likely to support
periodic precipitation and restriction chances through the rest of
the upcoming week, most common for FKL/DUJ.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...CL/88
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/AK
AVIATION...AK