Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 210832
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
332 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather should return today through Friday under building
high pressure. Rain chances return with weekend low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain will continue to exit the area early this morning behind an
exiting cold/occluded front. Clouds should gradually decrease
today with mixing, dry advection, and building high pressure.
After an initial drop in temperatures later this morning,
daytime highs should be within a couple of degrees of average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry weather is expected through Friday as high pressure
moves E across the region. A shortwave crossing the TN Valley
and Mid Atlantic region should result in increased cloud cover
tonight and part of Friday. A slight chance of snow is possible
in Tucker county WV overnight, though most of the precip is
progged S of the area.

A trough is progged to track from the Wrn CONUS to the Central
CONUS Friday and Saturday. Increasing moisture and shortwave
support in SW flow aloft ahead of the trough should return rain
chances late Friday night for areas S of I 70. The precip could
begin a brief period of freezing rain across Garrett county MD
until sfc temperatures rise.

Rain should overspread the area Saturday and Saturday night with
the increasing moisture and shortwave support and as sfc low
pressure develops and quickly tracks from the Plains to the
Great Lakes/Upper Midwest region, pulling a warm front N across
our area. Model progs indicate the best potential for heavy rain
should stay just S of the area. Above seasonal average
temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Precip chances should diminish Sunday as the trough/low track
across the NE CONUS. A tight pressure gradient on the wrn side
of the exiting low, and mixing, could also lead to strong wind
gusts. Weak ridging in zonal flow aloft should return dry
weather for Monday and Tuesday before the pattern amplifies and
another trough tracks SE across the region by midweek, returning
precip chances to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR is expected to prevail through the night, but improvement
to MVFR cigs is expected with passage of a cold/occluded front
in the immediate predawn hours. Light, variable wind will become
westerly with that passage and gust to around 20kts.

Otherwise, expect further improvement to VFR as Thursday
progresses on the strength of building sfc high pres and dry
advection.

Overall confidence is good.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely in rain on Saturday as low digs toward
the Great Lakes and invokes strong sly flow across the Upr OH
Region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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