034
FXUS61 KPBZ 032323
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
723 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains dominant through Monday, leading to
continued dry weather and warm temperatures. The next chance of
a wetting rainfall arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues, with above-normal afternoon highs and
  near-normal overnight lows
-------------------------------------------------------------

The pattern is being dominated by expansive upper ridging across
the Mississippi Valley into the eastern CONUS. Surface high
pressure edging off of the New Jersey coast is inducing
southerly low- level flow, leading to an increase in temperature
and dewpoints while maintaining a mostly sunny sky. Afternoon
highs will reach into the upper 70s to near 80F in some
locations.

Tonight, the dry and quiet pattern continues. Mostly clear
skies and increased surface moisture will allow better
conditions for near-dawn river valley fog. Overnight lows will
end up seasonably cool.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Continued dry weather under high pressure
- High temperatures reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal while
  nighttime temperatures will be just above normal
----------------------------------------------------------------

The overall pattern remains high confidence through the weekend.
The upper ridge will slowly shift eastward across the Ohio
Valley and the Appalachians, maintaining mostly clear skies.
Daytime high temperatures will warm to values 10 to 15 degrees
above climatology. Overnight lows should not be as anomalous as
a dry air mass and the lack of cloud cover leads to good
radiational cooling, yet values may still edge to just above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in dry and warm conditions Monday
- Good chance of a wetting rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday
- Cooler temperatures from Tuesday on, although it is uncertain
  exactly how much cooler values will be
----------------------------------------------------------------

Clustered ensemble guidance continues to show a high-confidence
pattern for Monday, with the main ridge axis along the Eastern
Seaboard during the morning. This will maintain the dry and warm
pattern for one more day.

Thereafter, guidance generally agrees that a troughing pattern takes
hold for the midweek period, with the mid-level system traversing
the Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday night and reaching the northeast
CONUS by Wednesday. Differences remain among the various clusters
regarding depth and timing, which lends particularly
uncertainty to the temperature forecast. NBM 10th to 90th
percentile max temperature spreads are near or over 10 degrees
from Tuesday on, with values from a bit below to a bit above
normal all plausible. The current forecast will continue to
mirror the ensemble means, which are near normal this time of
year.

Despite the model differences, this trough still represents the next
decent chance of a widespread rainfall. NBM 48-hour probabilities of
half-inch or more of rain ending at 8 AM Thursday are in the 45 to
55 percent range for the Upper Ohio Valley. This will not be a
drought-ending event by any means, but a welcome wetting rainfall
does seem like a likely outcome. The most likely precipitation
timing appears to be in the Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday
morning window. Thereafter, encroaching high pressure may
provide a dry end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Save a very low probability of fog tonight for valley-influenced
ports, VFR is expected to prevail for the period. Clear skies
are expected overnight with most experiencing a calm or light
southerly wind. Into tomorrow, mostly clear is maintained in
light southeast flow. There a small chance of a widely scattered
VFR cumulus deck, but this remains low probability.

.OUTLOOK....
VFR conditions are expected on the whole through Mon as high
pressure centered in the nern CONUS remains assertive. The
exception will be during late night/early morning Sun and Mon
when river-valley fog could ensue coincident with increasing
boundary-layer moisture and diurnal slackening of the wind.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Milcarek