402
FXUS61 KPBZ 110011
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
711 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather through the weekend will bring rounds of
snow, occasionally mixed with rain, as well as fluctuating
temperature and gusty winds. Overall, snowfall accumulations
favor areas north of Interstate 80 and the ridges of southwest
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Crossing cold front changes rain to snow
- Winter Weather Advisory near I-80 extended to 10 AM Thursday
- Overnight gusty wind pushes wind chills into the 5 to 15
  degree range for many
---------------------------------------------------------------

The cold front now lies just northwest of Pittsburgh,
illustrated nicely on WSR-88D velocity images. Temperatures are
starting to nose down towards freezing behind the front in some
locations north of I-80 and into central Ohio. The changeover to
snow occurs just behind the boundary as well and will overspread
the region this evening. The initial shot of snow this evening
will be followed by more isolated/scattered snow showers in
northwest flow overnight, focusing on mainly lake-effect prone
regions near I-80 and upslope-prone regions. These match the
area of the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory, also where most of
the non-trivial accumulation will take place. The Blizzard
Warning continues as well, with the highest-impact period being
the 3-6 hour period following the frontal passage with the
ramp-up of wind gusts and period of heavier snow.

The main change to headlines was to extend the I-80 adjacent
portion of the Winter Weather Advisory through 10 AM. Hi-res
models continue to hint at banded lake-effect snow overnight,
with one or more semi-persistent bands possible into Thursday
morning. This, along with the likelihood of icy spots on
untreated roads due to the freezing of lingering moisture, led
to the extension. A further extension may be needed by future
shifts depending on snow shower evolution. Outside of the
Advisory/Warning areas, a Special Weather Statement mentioning
scattered snow showers and potential icy spots has already been
issued.

By sunrise, the bulk of the snow shower activity should be
related to Lake Erie effects. Temperatures will have plunged
into the upper teens/lower 20s. Gusty northwest wind thanks to
ongoing overnight mixing will drop wind chill values into the 5
to 15 degree range by morning, and below zero on the higher
ridges.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Transition to lingering upslope and lake-effect snow Thursday
- Two more quick-hitting disturbances bring snow potential to
  areas south of I-70 late Thursday night into Friday morning,
  and then to the I-80 corridor and ridges Friday night
- Temperatures well below average
----------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday will see post-frontal northwest flow with lake-effect
snow showers/banding possible through the day. The best chance
for additional accumulations will be along and north of I-80
where these bands could locally add another couple inches to the
snowpack. That said, confidence at this time in the details
regarding locations and amounts is low with snowfall totals
between 3 and 5 inches with a few locations seeing an isolated 6
inch amount.

The active pattern continues through the end of the work week as
guidance points toward two more quick-hitting mid-level
shortwave troughs impacting the region overnight Thursday into
Friday and then again overnight Friday into early Saturday. The
first wave is currently projected to dive south of the local
area, bringing precipitation mainly to areas along and south of
I-70. With cold air already entrenched across the region,
precipitation type is likely to be all snow. At this time,
roughly 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall appear possible
south of I-70, with higher amounts to 3 to 5 inches possible in
the Laurels and both WV ridges in Preston and Tucker. The latest
trends slightly nudged the snow south a bit putting the higher
amounts in E. Tucker. This is the first run to do this so will
hang with the probabilities and keep a 1 to 3 inch chance in
Laurels and Preston Ridges with a 3 to 5 mention in eastern
Tucker.

The second wave moves over the Great Lakes after sunset Friday
evening. The orientation of this second wave appears to mostly
favor a redevelopment of lake-effect snow showers/banding north
of Pittsburgh and upslope-forced snow showers along the ridges.
Any additional accumulations with this second wave appear light.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Alberta Clipper returns snow chances to portions of the region
  late Saturday into Sunday.
- Cold temperatures continue into early next week; Cold Weather
  Advisory along the ridges may be needed early Monday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long-range guidance continues to strongly favor a trough over
the Great Lakes, maintaining cold air across the region through
the weekend. A fast-moving Alberta Clipper is expected to track
in late Saturday into early Sunday, potentially causing travel
impacts from accumulating snow. Current projections place the
highest chances of impacts south of Pittsburgh. The most likely
range is 2-4 inches, through a few scenarios support higher
totals if localized bands develop. Winter Weather Advisories may
be needed.

Behind this system, clearing skies will likely allow
temperatures to drop sharply Sunday into early Monday. Wind
chill values may fall below zero, reaching Cold Weather Advisory
thresholds across the ridge tops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Crossing cold front will foster a change over to snow at all
  terminals through 06z
- On and off snow showers with fluctuating VFR/MVFR conditions
  favoring western PA through rest of TAF period
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A cold front will cross the region starting at TAF issuance time
through 06z in conjunction with upper shortwave movement; expect
MVFR cigs/VFR vsbys with light rain showers ahead of the
boundary and then a brief period of MVFR to IFR cigs/IFR vsbys
after the frontal passage with a sharp NW veering of winds.

Strong cold advection and deeper mixing within the post-frontal
environment favors ceilings improvements that fluctuate between
1.5kft - 4kft and become predominantly VFR by 17z Thursday (amid
increasing subsidence). However, narrow bands of lake effect
snow showers and the isolated convective snow shower may provide
brief heavier snow that temporarily reduces visibility;
northwest PA terminals (FKL/DUJ) are the most likely to see
impact from these heavier bands of snow between 03z - 14z.

Diurnal mixing Thursday afternoon may elicit light snow
showers/flurries that last longer than TAF mention, but are
unlikely to offer accumulations. Otherwise, high pressure moving
through the OH river valley will slowly end snow showers through
the end (or just after) the TAF period.


Outlook...
A fast-moving shortwave may develop a relatively narrow band of
synoptically-forced snow early Friday morning into the
afternoon, but variances in its path remain large. Even without
snow, reinforcing cold air likely will maintain periods of MVFR
to lower VFR stratocu across the region.

The active weather pattern continues Saturday into Sunday with
additional upper shortwave trough movement; expect additional
periods of restrictions with any falling precipitation being
snow.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for
     PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076-078.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ511-
     513.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ512-514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak
NEAR TERM...CL/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier