775
FXUS61 KPBZ 080858
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
358 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry weather is expected before rain returns later
tonight and Sunday. Rain will mix with and change to snow
Sunday night, with snow showers and much colder temperatures
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Patchy dense fog possible across southeast Ohio / western PA
  this morning
- Dry conditions through the afternoon

---------------------------------------------------------------

Patchy dense fog is likely across eastern OH and slightly
encroaching into western PA this morning with clearing skies and
light winds. Theses areas coincide with favorable hydrolapse(s)
and MRi values, while areas farther north and east tend to favor
low stratus based off latest forecast soundings. Have issued an
SPS based on the patchy nature but will monitor to see if an
advisory is needed.

A shortwave ridge transitioning over the region today will
result in dry conditions under increasing subsidence. Overall
though, heights/thickness will be lower as longwave troughing
over the midwest deepens as a jet max dives down the backside of
the trough, so daytime highs will top off several degrees lower
than observed Friday, but still slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances increase tonight into Sunday
- Colder with rain mixing with/changing to snow Sunday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

The deepening upper trough is progged to dig across the Upper
Midwest and western Great Lakes overnight and Sunday. Meanwhile,
surface low pressure will deepen as it tracks up the Ohio River
Valley. While there is a minimal chance of brief light rain
across northern zones this evening with a weak shortwave, rain
chances will substantially ramp up across much of the area
Sunday morning as the surface low traverses the eastern Great
Lakes and drags its trailing cold front across the region.

Coverage should become more scattered behind the front, but
showers will persist as the upper trough continues to deepen and
approach from the west. Temperatures drop quickly after midnight
Sunday night as rain mixes with and then transitions to snow.
With warm ground temperatures and prior rainfall Sunday, only
minor accumulations (a few tenths of an inch) are expected by
sunrise on Monday, mainly on grass and elevated surfaces.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Much colder with snow showers Monday into Tuesday
- Accumulation possible mainly north of I-80 and in the ridges
- Unsettled Wednesday and Thursday with occasional rain/snow
  chances mainly north of Pittsburgh
- Apparent temperatures in the teens Tuesday morning
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles continue to point towards the longwave trough digging
across the eastern CONUS on Monday. Differences remain in the
upper patterns between the GEFS and the Euro that would mean
different durations of NW flow and thus differing snow
accumulations through Tuesday. Despite these differences, the
picture remains the same that NW flow will bring scattered to
numerous snow showers across portions of the OH Valley.

850mb temperatures are expected to drop to between -8 to -10
deg C by Monday, while Lake Erie temperatures hover around +12
to +14 deg C. Lake and terrain enhancement will be likely Monday
into portions of Monday night and possibly early Tuesday before
flow backs to the W and the most efficient lake and terrain
enhancement is turned north of the region. Mesoscale features
(such as a reinforcing surface trough) will greatly affect SFC
to 850mb flow and thus the positioning, duration and intensity
of any heavier focused lake bands remains low confidence at this
time. Despite this, models continue to hint at the likelihood
of one or several lake bands yielding enhanced snowfall near and
south of Lake Erie. NBM probabilities continue to ebb and flow
but currently sit between 40- 50% for advisory level snow north
of I-80. These probabilities have remained rather steady for the
PA and WV ridges however where probabilities remain between
50-60%. We will continue to monitor the evolution of this system
and pattern over the coming forecast periods.

The trough is expected to begin to shift east of the area on
Tuesday, as boundary layer flow backs to the SW and snow chances
decrease through the day.

Broad upper troughing is then expected to persist across areas
from the Upper Midwest into New England. Occasional rain/snow
chances will be possible, mainly north of PIT, as individual
shortwaves rotate through the trough.

Temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below average
Monday and Tuesday, before moderating some by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Skies were clearing from W-E as a shortwave trough exits the
region. With low level moisture in place, fog and stratus was
developing after the clearing occurs. Expect LIFR to develop
initially across Ohio airports, with MVFR further east to
PIT/AGC. Additional MVFR stratocu was moving ESE toward the
region along a secondary surface trough/cold front. These should
move over FKL and DUJ overnight, which should preclude fog
formation.

MVFR is expected for most airports north of I-70 today, or north
of a ZZV-AFJ-VVS line as this front approaches and stalls
across the area. VFR is expected to the south, with scattered
cumulus and cirrus above. CIGS should improve to VFR this
evening ahead of an approaching shortwave and surface low
pressure.

Outlook...
Restrictions are likely Sunday in rain as low pressure crosses
the Upper Ohio Valley region. Periodic restrictions and snow
showers are then expected Sunday night through Tuesday as a deep
upper trough crosses the region, and lake/terrain enhancement
occurs. Another crossing trough will maintain restriction
potential Wednesday, with rain and snow possible.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88/AK
AVIATION...WM