700
FXUS61 KPHI 101739
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1239 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front has moved offshore, and a much colder
airmass will continue to filter in behind it. High pressure will
be centered near the South Central US building in through
Tuesday. Another cold front crosses our area later Wednesday.
High pressure then starts to arrive later Thursday and remains
nearby through the the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front is now offshore, and cold advection is ushering
both chillier temperatures and drier air. Falling heights aloft
have resulted in some deformation showers developing in a north
to south oriented band as of late morning. This activity will
continue to lift northeast and away from the area by later this
afternoon. The deep upper level trough over the Ohio Valley
region will progress towards the region delivering a shot of
modified, arctic air. With cold air advection increasing under
cyclonic flow, this should support a pretty hefty strato-
cumulus cloud deck, resulting in mostly cloudy to at times
overcast skies.

With the cloudy skies and ongoing cold advection, today`s
maximum temperatures have likely already occurred. Temperatures
will continue to gradually fall through dusk. Winds post
frontal should be fairly brisk as the pressure gradient remains
fairly strong. Expect winds will start picking up towards mid
afternoon, with gusts of 20-30 mph developing across the
region.

Heading into the overnight hours, the gusts will weaken as high
pressure centered over the Gulf Coast starts building into the
Mid Altantic. WNW winds will remain near 10-15 mph much of the
night. This combined with temperatures falling to the mid 20s to
near 30 degrees will result in wind chills in the teens and low
20s by dawn Tuesday.

Modest westerly flow develops across the region, and this leads
to a rather raw day Tuesday with highs peaking in the low to
mid 40s. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, even overcast
much of the day northwest of I-95. Westerly winds will increase
substantially during the morning to around 20-30 mph with gusts
near 40 mph much of the day. Wind chill values will only
rebound to the low to mid 30s by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The Mid- Atlantic region will be situated between strong low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and strong high pressure
over the Southeastern US. This results in a tight pressure
gradient over the area that will linger through Wednesday High
pressure will keep the region mostly dry through Wednesday. A
weak cold front will then move through late Wednesday, though it
looks to remain rather moisture-starved.

With an upper level trough moving out of the region Tuesday
night, our cold airmass will moderate aloft. This along with
winds shifting more southwesterly at the surface, low
temperatures for Tuesday night will not be as cold compared to
the night before with upper 20s to mid 30s.

A modest warming trend continues into Wednesday thanks to SW to
WSW winds staying elevated and helping bring a slightly warmer
airmass into the region. Afternoon highs will warm back up into
the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. A weak cold front moves through
late Wednesday with little moisture and only a minor change to
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure across the Southeast US will gradually gain a
stronger hold over the Mid Atlantic late week and into the
weekend. Mostly dry conditions with cool temperatures a few
degrees below climo. Our next storm system will begin to
approach the region Sunday afternoon/night as an amplified upper
level trough pushes through the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR ceilings. West to northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with
20 to 25 kt gusts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20
kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts 20-25 knots with gusts
increasing to near 35 knots during the day, diminishing some at
night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 knots.

Friday...VFR. Winds diminishing to 10-15 knots, becoming less
than 10 kts at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Today, sensible weather will be fair with west-northwest winds
increasing to around 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt possible
during the afternoon. Seas of 3-5 feet.

Tonight...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Northwest
winds increasing to 20-30 kts and seas building to 3-5 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Westerly winds increasing to 25-35 kts with gusts up
to 40 kts possible. Seas 4-7 feet. Gale Watch has been upgraded
to a Gale Warning for Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Winds
gradually diminish overnight, decreasing below Gale criteria,
though gusts will still be around 25-30 kts.

Wednesday and Thursday...SCA conditions possible. West winds
gusting around 25 kts. Seas 4 to 7 feet Wednesday diminish to 3
to 5 feet Thursday.

Friday...SCA conditions possible. WNW winds gusting to around
20 kts.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night
     for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...Deal/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...Deal/MJL/Staarmann
MARINE...Deal/MJL/Staarmann