645
FXUS61 KPHI 300526
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
126 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section with the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through at
least the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally tranquil weather is expected to
prevail through at least the beginning of next week.

High pressure continues to shift offshore through the rest of
today and tonight as low pressure moves through eastern Canada.
A dry cold front associated with this low will move through
tomorrow morning. High pressure will then return through early
next week with continuing mild and dry conditions expected.

After a relatively warm day today, it will be mild tonight with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Friday will turn breezy in
the wake of the morning cold frontal passage. Northwest winds
10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph can be expected.

Conditions will turn cooler again for the weekend. Lows Friday
night through Sunday night will be mainly in the mid 30s to mid
40s, but frost currently appears unlikely where the growing
season continues. Highs will be coolest on Halloween, in the
upper 50s to low 60s, under partly cloudy skies. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies Sunday, but a bit milder with highs in the
low to mid 60s.

The system which had potential to affect the region early next
week now appears to weaken and miss our region for the most
part. This will keep our region dry, but still increase cloud
cover. We cannot totally rule out a few showers midweek, but the
next period to keep an eye on for widespread rainfall looks to
be toward the end of next week (Thursday into Friday), when
guidance suggests a more prolific system may impact the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR. Southwest winds near 5 kts, shifting WSW
after 09Z due to an approaching cold front. Can`t fully rule
out some patchy shallow fog, but this is not expected to be a
prevailing condition. High confidence.

Today...VFR. Westerly winds shifting northwest by 14-15Z with a
cold frontal passage and increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts
near 20 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. NNW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions expected on the waters with no hazards
through tonight.

For Friday into Friday night, Northwest winds increasing to
15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front, with gusts up to 25 kts
(30 kts offshore). At this time, the greatest probability of 25
kt gusts is still across the northern New Jersey coast, thus a
Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 2 PM Friday through 2 AM
Saturday for this area. This may need to be expanded farther
south in a future update, but the stronger gusts may stay mostly
confined to the offshore waters.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...No marine hazards expected. Fair weather.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann
AVIATION...Staarmann
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann