454
FXUS61 KPHI 152241
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
641 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push well south of the area tonight, then cool
and dry high pressure will build through the end of the week.
High pressure will weaken and retreat offshore over the weekend,
then another cold front will impact the region Sunday night
bringing potential for widespread rainfall. Drier and seasonable
conditions will return into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight, winds diminish to around 10-15 mph under clear skies
with high pressure building over the northern Great Lakes. CAA
will continue as lows dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Still do
not think front development will be a threat in the cooler areas
as winds should remain elevated enough to preclude frost
formation.

For Thursday, wall to wall sunshine is expected as high
pressure remains parked over the Great Lakes. Highs top out in
the mid 50s to low 60s across the area. Winds will be a bit stronger
compared to today as a low over the northwest Atlantic deepens.
This results in a tightening pressure gradient over the area
where gusts between 25-35 mph are possible, especially in the
afternoon. Will need to watch potential fire concerns...more on
that in the Fire Weather section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure only moves slightly east Thursday night,
keeping enough gradient overhead to prevent a strong
radiational night thanks to a continued 5-10 mph breeze,
despite clear skies. Lows Thursday night in the mid 30s to lower
40s.

Even Friday, the high will still be just to our west, so while
the gradient is finally starting to relax more, the northwest
flow will continue. Otherwise, plenty of sun, so highs Friday
should reach the low to mid 60s.

Friday night may try to radiate as the high finally moves
nearly overhead, but warm advection will already be starting
aloft, which is not ideal for widespread frost development.
Lows Friday night in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A subtle warm front will cross the region on Saturday,
providing a bit more cloud cover but also boosting temps. Highs
Saturday rising to the mid to upper 60s.

Southerly flow becomes a bit more dominant on Saturday night
which may preclude strong radiational cooling. Additional cloud
cover may also begin moving overhead as a stronger storm starts
developing to our west. Thus, lows Saturday night should remain
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Despite increased cloud cover ahead of the aforementioned
strengthening storm to our west, stronger southerly flow should
also provide enough warm advection to make Sunday the warmest of
the forecast period. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 70s.

The aforementioned system likely doesn`t start spreading rain
into the region until Sunday night, but with southerly flow and
plenty of clouds, it should be the mildest night of the forecast
period. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 50s.

The storm pulls northeastward across the region Monday. Exact
timing still a little uncertain, but right now odds favor most
rain occurring earlier in the day, with some drying and maybe
even clearing possible later on. With weak cold advection behind
it, not to mention the rain and showers, highs Monday should
stay in the mid to upper 60s.

Depending on the speed of the departure, Monday night could
keep a few showers and many clouds around, or could see partial
clearing. For now keeping lows Monday night in the mid to upper
40s.

Upper trough may linger through Tuesday, which could keep
clouds and even a few showers nearby, but not a washout. Highs
Tuesday and Wednesday right now look to be in the mid to upper
60s and lows largely in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. North-northwest winds around 5-10 kt. High
confidence.

Thursday...VFR/SKC. North-northwest winds around 10-15 kt with
gusts 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. High confidence.

Thursday Night...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...

VFR should prevail through Saturday night. Sub-VFR likely
developing late Sunday through early Monday as an approaching
front increases the risk of showers and low clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic coastal waters are in
effect through Thursday. Small Craft Advisories on the Delaware
Bay go into effect at 4 PM today through Thursday.

North-northwest winds 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt tonight.
These winds will continue through Thursday. Seas of 5-7 feet.
Fair weather outside of SCA conditions.

Outlook...

Small Craft Advisory was extended into Friday due to continued
northwesterly gusts to 25-30 kts and ocean waves of 4-7 feet
gradually subsiding into Friday.

Beyond Friday, winds go solidly sub-SCA, while wave heights on
the ocean may still flirt with the 5 ft SCA criteria, but
overall a calmer period Friday night through Saturday night.
Fair weather.

Greater risk of SCA returns Sunday and Monday as at cold front
system impacts the area, with southerly winds increasing and
ocean waves building back solidly above 5 feet. Rain showers
likely during this period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage, gusty northwest winds
and lowering humidity will take place on Thursday. Winds likely
gust as high as 25-35 mph with MinRH values in the 30-40% range
during the afternoon. As such, a Special Weather Statement may
be warranted, depending on how low fuel moistures are. May need
to reach out to our fire weather partners and evaluate as
needed.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...RCM/Staarmann
LONG TERM...RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...DeSilva