443
FXUS61 KPHI 160511
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
111 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Section for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mainly quiet this week with high pressure in control.

2. Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible at times late
this week and next weekend as multiple systems move through.
However at this point significant impacts due not appear likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and tranquil weather will persist through at
least Thursday with a gradual warming trend.

An expansive area of high pressure will remain in control through
Thursday resulting in a stretch of nice mid-September days.

For tonight, with the surface high lingering near the area it will
result in another night of mainly clear skies and light winds
leading to good radiational cooling conditions. It won`t be quite as
cool as last night in most places but generally expecting most areas
to get down into the 50s with some upper 40s possible in the
Poconos.

Wednesday through Thursday will feature a gradual warming trend as
high pressure slips off to our south as a weak system moves in north
of the region by Thursday. This will result in a SW flow developing
with warm air advection. Generally expect highs in the 80s with dew
points also creeping up through this period as well. Both days
should be largely free of any precipitation though by late day
Thursday an approaching cold front from the north could result
in a few showers affecting the Lehigh Valley into the southern
Poconos. POPs though are only around 20-30 percent.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible at
times late this week and next weekend as multiple systems move
through. However at this point significant impacts due not
appear likely.

A cold front still looks to move southward through the area Thursday
night into Friday and this could result in some showers. Guidance
had been backing off on precipitation with this but some of our
latest guidance is a bit more robust once again with showers moving
through. The bottom line though is that with the timing mainly at
night and mostly just showers expected (probability for thunder is
low) this should not be an impactful system.

A couple showers could linger into Friday over our southern zones
but otherwise it should be a partly to mostly sunny day with
temperatures cooling slightly compared to Thursday in the wake of
the front.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the aformentioned front looks to
eventually move back to the north as a warm front late Saturday into
Saturday night. The front may then linger near the area Sunday. As
this occurs, moisture looks to surge back northward towards the area
ahead of a tough moving through the Great Plains. This will bring
increasing chances for showers and perhaps a few storms by late
Saturday night and especially on Sunday which looks to be the wetter
of the two weekend days. POPs for Sunday range from around 30% south
up to 60% north.

Medium range guidance shows the unsettled period potentially
continuing into early next week with multiple waves of low pressure
moving through. Still over 5 days out, so things could change with
the forecast and it is a bit early to get into specific impacts.
However, there is no real overwhelming signal in both deterministic
and ensembles of any major impacts at this time with these systems.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR/SKC. Light/variable to calm winds around 5 kt
or less, favoring a south/southeast direction. High confidence.

Today...VFR. South/southwest winds around 5 to 10 kt. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Increasing cloud cover and perhaps a few light
showers around KRDG/KABE but nothing of concern. Light winds 5
kt or less favoring a south/southwest direction. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...Primarily VFR. Cannot rule out a few afternoon
showers and thunderstorms around KRDG/KABE but chances remain
low (15-25%).

Thursday Night...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers move through
as a cold front passes though restrictions appear unlikely (less
than 10%).

Friday through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely
(60-70%) especially on Sunday as more widespread rain and
scattered thunderstorms move into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through Thursday with winds out of the
south/southwest around 5 to 15 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected at
this time.

Rip Currents...

Today...Breaking waves in the surf zone of 1-2 feet are
forecast with a light southerly wind and a 6-8 second period.
These conditions will result in the continuation of a LOW risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents at all New Jersey
and Delaware Beaches.

Thursday...Southerly flow increases some, however similar
breaking wave heights and wave period are forecast. Therefore, a
LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents are
forecast at all New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich
MARINE...Gorse/Hoeflich