779
FXUS61 KPHI 040527
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1227 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front has moved offshore. High pressure returns for
Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front moves through
Wednesday night. High pressure builds back in for Thursday and
Friday ahead of a sequence of quick-moving low pressure systems
impact the region over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The cold front has pushed offshore as of midnight. Cooler and
drier air will advect in across the region on a gusty West
wind. Mostly clear skies overnight aside for a few passing
clouds. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph possible
at times. Low temperatures will drop into the upper 30s across
the N/W areas while other areas will see readings in the low
40s.

For Tuesday, large high pressure across the Tennessee Valley
early on will slide towards the Southeast US coast by evening.
Our region will remain in the dry northern periphery of this
high, so dry weather and a sunny day is expected. Temperatures
will be around normal for early November with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s most spots and some low 50s for the far NW
areas, Winds will be a bit breezy for the first part of the day
with West winds 10 to 15 mph and gusts around 20 mph at times.
The winds will subside by sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be in control through Tuesday night
before shifting off the coast on Wednesday. This results in
mostly tranquil weather expected with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies. Lows will range from the mid 30s to low 40s on
Tuesday night. By Wednesday, southerly flow returns as the high
shifts offshore. This will lead to a weak WAA regime to set-up
across the region. As a result, highs on Wednesday will be quite
mild, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s.

For Wednesday night, a clipper system will be tracking across
northern New England with its associated cold front trailing
back to the southwest. This front will cross through the Mid-
Atlantic region at night, where a few showers are possible. Any
shower will be light in nature, but the greatest likelihood will
be north of the PA Turnpike/I-195 corridor. Lows will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Weak ridging returns on Thursday as surface high pressure
builds in from the west during the day, settling overhead at
night. With mostly clear skies and light/calm winds, this should
result in an efficient night for radiational cooling. Opted to
blend in some cooler guidance, where lows bottom out in the
upper 20s to upper 30s. This likely will result in at least
frost (and potentially some freeze) headlines for areas where
the growing season remains active.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Friday, the pattern will become more active and progressive
as a mid-level trough sets up over the central CONUS, slowly
shifting east through the weekend and into early next week. As a
result, a series of quick-moving systems are expected to impact
the region over the weekend into early next week. As of now,
the greatest opportunities for shower activity will be Friday
night (60-80% chance) and on Sunday (30-50% chance). Conditions
should then begin to dry out early next week as the Mid-Atlantic
region will be nestled within the deep upper trough.

In terms of temperatures, expect rather seasonable temperatures
for the Friday through Sunday period, with well below-normal
temperatures come next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR. A few clouds possible, but mostly SKC. WNW
winds around 10 kts with some occasional gusts up to 20 kts
possible. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Few clouds expected. WNW winds 10-15 kts with
gusts near 20-25 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Friday...Primarily VFR. A slight chance
of showers Wednesday night. Gusty winds on Wednesday and
Thursday in excess of 20 kt possible.

Friday night through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible
with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front has pushed offshore as of midnight. WNW winds will
remain near 20-25 kts overnight with gusts up to 30 kts. Seas
4-6 feet. Winds and seas will gradually lessen through the
daytime Tuesday to below 25 kts and below 5 feet. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect through today for all coastal waters.
Fair weather.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected.

Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions likely, with
potential Gale Force conditions possible Wednesday night. Wind
gusts between 25-35 kt with seas building up to 8 feet.

Thursday night...No marine headlines expected.

Friday through Saturday...SCA conditions likely. Wind gusts up
to 30 kt with seas up to 6-8 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva
NEAR TERM...MJL/OHara/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...DeSilva
LONG TERM...DeSilva
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/OHara/Staarmann