239
FXUS61 KPHI 141947
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
247 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate through the first half of
Saturday. A warm front lifts through the area on Saturday night,
ahead of a cold front that will cross through on Sunday. A weak area
of high pressure is in place on Monday ahead of a weak disturbance
that skirts by to the south on Tuesday. High pressure briefly
returns mid-week before another disturbance arrives by the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the surface, high pressure dominates, but is centered well to
our southwest near the central Gulf Coast. One strong surface
low is well to our northeast over the Canadian maritimes with
another well to the northwest over the Canadian prairie
provinces. The pressure gradient is slowly relaxing across the
region as high pressure becomes more dominant, so winds are not
nearly as much of a factor today. Aloft, we remain in the fast
northwesterly flow between the closed low to the northeast and
the upper ridge over the western Gulf.

A potent shortwave moving southeastward through the
aforementioned fast northwest flow will bring a lot of clouds
back to the region thru tonight, with even some virga noted on
radar, but not expecting any precip given dry low levels. This
should help keep lows a little milder that it might otherwise
get tonight despite winds becoming light and variable and low
dew points, so forecast lows are mostly in the 30s, 20s coldest
spots north and 40s warmest spots south.

Should see some breaks in the clouds late tonight into Saturday
morning, but clouds then return by afternoon as warm advection
gets underway ahead of the next system, which is a warm front
moving ahead of the aforementioned surface and upper-level lows
in south-central Canada. Some guidance races the precip into the
region quickly late in the day Saturday, but for now kept POPs
mostly slight chance to chance and mainly from Philly north and
west. Highs will range from near 50 Poconos to low 60s far south
Jersey and the Delmarva. Winds will turn southerly as the day
wears on, but remain fairly light thru the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The next upper trough approaches the Mid-Atlantic region come
Saturday night and will remain situated overhead through Monday
before lifting out. At the surface, a clipper system will be
tracking across the northern Great Lakes and northern New England
Saturday night into Sunday. Its associated warm front will lift
through the region Saturday night, followed by a cold front Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon. Broad high pressure will begin to
build back in by Sunday night but remain positioned to the west
through Monday.

As a result, forcing for ascent will overspread the region through
Sunday morning. This will lead to light showers overspreading the
remainder of the region by late evening and continue through the
overnight hours. Shower activity should come to an end before
daybreak on Sunday once the warm front lifts north of the area. PoPs
have further increased to 70-90% across northern areas, while
remaining steady in the 40-70% range for southern areas. Rainfall
amounts will vary, but largely expect up to a quarter of an inch,
locally higher. Warm air advection will be ramping up in wake of the
front, so lows will mainly be in the 40s/50s.

The warm air advection will be short-lived, however, as a cold front
quickly approaches and crosses through the region by early
afternoon. Highs will likely top out in the mid 50s to low 60s
(cooler in higher terrain) by mid-day Sunday, before crashing in the
afternoon as cold air advection pours in. It`ll also become
increasingly breezy in wake of the front as the pressure gradient
between departing low to the east and building high to the west
tightens. Northwest winds around 15-25 mph sustained with gusts in
the 30-40 mph range are likely. Skies will clear from west to east
behind the front, although wouldn`t be surprised to see a strato-cu
cloud deck develop in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
fall into Sunday night, with lows in the 20s/30s. Temps on Monday
will struggle to rise with the cool, northwest flow persisting where
highs are only expected to be in the low 40s to low 50s. Winds will
continue to remain gusty as well up to 35-40 mph. This will result
in feel-like temperatures in the 30s/40s.

While not currently in the forecast, guidance is in fairly good
agreement that this northwesterly post-frontal regime should lead to
lake-effect snow off of the Great Lakes. With such strong flow in
place, it is not entirely out of the question that a few snow
showers could reach our higher terrain areas for Sunday night and
Monday. This will continue to be monitored in future forecast
cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Monday night, the upper trough finally departs the Mid-Atlantic
region allowing heights to rise. Winds will diminish as the pressure
gradient laxes under mostly clear skies. This should support a
decent opportunity for radiational cooling, so low temperatures are
likely to be below freezing for most locales, outside of urban heat
islands and along the immediate coast.

On Tuesday, a weak impulse aloft will track eastward out of the Ohio
Valley, passing south of the region by Tuesday night. This impulse
will likely cause another opportunity for some rain showers across
much of the region, greatest likelihood across southern areas (20-
40%). Cannot rule out an isolated snow shower in the higher terrain,
as temperatures will be within a few degrees of freezing. Regardless,
any precipitation looks to be rather late in nature.

For Wednesday and through the end of the week, conditions generally
look to remain mostly dry through Thursday as broad high pressure
largely looks to be in control. By Thursday night and Friday, shower
chances increase as another low pressure begins to approach from the
south and west. For now, temperatures do appear to be quite warm, so
any precipitation should fall in the form of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 0Z...VFR. Winds NW 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts,
diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after 21Z. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming light and variable
by 03Z or so. High confidence.

Saturday...Mostly VFR, though some lower cigs possible
especially western terminals late. Chance (around 30%) of light
rain late for the westernmost terminals. Winds becoming S to
SSW 5 to 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Sub-VFR conditions probable with periods of rain
showers.

Sunday through Monday...Primarily VFR conditions, with a slight
chance of sub-VFR ceilings possible each day. Gusty northwest winds
likely each afternoon up to 30-35 kt.

Monday night through Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Aside for a chance
of showers late on Tuesday, no significant weather is expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters
from Cape Henlopen DE north to Sandy Hook NJ rest of today.
West to northwest winds will average 15 to 20 kt with gusts up
to 25 kt. Winds diminish toward sunset, with sub-SCA conditions
tonight and Saturday. Winds become southerly and start to ramp
up later on Saturday, but still below SCA levels.

Outlook...

Saturday night...SCA conditions likely with wind gusts up to 30 kt
and seas up to 5 feet. Showers likely.

Sunday through Monday...A Gale Watch has been issued for both the
Atlantic Coastal Waters and Delaware Bay beginning Sunday morning
through Monday afternoon. Northwest winds of 20-30 kt sustained,
with gusts in excess of 35 kt likely through Monday.

Monday night...Lingering SCA conditions probable for Monday night
with winds up to 25 kt and abating seas.

Tuesday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected at this
time.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>454.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/DeSilva
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Cooper/DeSilva
LONG TERM...Cooper/DeSilva
AVIATION...DeSilva/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/RCM