205
FXUS65 KPIH 250518
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1018 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds and lingering rain and snow showers are ending
  this evening as a cold front clears the region.

- Unsettled pattern ahead and the potential for much colder
  temperatures late this weekend into early next week. High
  uncertainty for where, when, and amounts of snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1227 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

UPDATE...Wind has subsided below Advisory conditions, so the
Advisory was canceled early. Light snow showers continue in the
Caribou highlands, but should end by 24/2100 MST. Sustained wind
should stay 10 to 15 mph somewhere in the Snake River plain
until around 0300 to 0400 MST.

Main impact will be very strong winds through early
this evening behind the cold frontal passage with the wind
advisory for the Eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain
ending at 8 pm. Other impact will be continuing rain and snow
showers in the eastern mountains which will end by midnight.
Lows tonight single digits and teens mountains with teens and
20s in valleys. Highs Tuesday near seasonal normals with 20s and
30s mountains and mid 30s to lower 40s Snake River Plain and
Eastern Magic Valley. Winds will be light on Tuesday. A weak
wave pushing east over upper level ridge to west Tuesday night
will bring a slight chance of showers into the Sawtooths and
central mountains and eastern highlands as well. 90 percent
chance QPF under 0.10 Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday night warmer
in the teens mountains and 20s valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

The extended portion of the forecast looks generally uneventful
through Thanksgiving Day. Will likely see some high elevation
showers Wed-Fri across the higher terrain of the central mountains
and eastern Highlands but the lack of any meaningful moisture would
keep any impacts limited to just some very light snowfall. We`re
talking an inch, at best, during this time period with the Island
Park area mostly likely to see any along with the higher peaks near
the Tetons and the Sawtooths but most areas will be dry during this
period. Additionally, temperatures look to remain at or on the
warmer side of normal with Thanksgiving Day likely the warmest day.
Temps will likely top 50 degrees during the afternoon hours across
parts of the Snake Plain and into the Magic Valley.

Things take a sharp turn colder as we look to head into the weekend
and early next week with models showing an upper level trough
swinging through the area over the weekend. Where they disagree
though is with respect to the depth of this colder air intrusion
just how much moisture, if any, will be present when it occurs. That
being said, confidence is increasing in a significant cooldown for
the weekend where high temps areawide may struggle to get above the
freezing mark. There is much less confidence however when it comes
to the precip side of the forecast. As such, felt it best to
continue to run with the NBM which is a general broadbrushed
approach to PoPs indicating at least some chance for snow throughout
the area, even in the valleys, but confidence on the precip side of
the forecast is low. Bottom line, stay tuned - as it appears that
our relatively mild November is going to come to an abrupt end as we
near the last day or two of the month and push into December. Things
on the precip front can and likely will change over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1018 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Strong winds and snow showers have ended as the cold front clears
the region and modest ridging starts to build in. Expect low-impact
VFR conditions tonight and Tuesday. Tuesday night, mid-level clouds
will increase from the west as some moisture tries to spill over the
ridge. No notable impacts are expected at least into the first half
of Tuesday night...thickening clouds and at least some VCSH for
mountain valley terminals may be needed near the end of or just
beyond the current TAF period.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...01