807
FXUS65 KPIH 102034
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
134 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect warmer temperatures to remain through at least the
  weekend

- Minimal chance of rain or snow closer to the Montana border
  and Lemhi County until early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1149 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

The main storm track continues to rapidly push north of our
area, although some lingering light showers remain possible
mainly over the eastern highlands. That doesn`t mean elsewhere
we won`t see a brief shower or some sprinkle/flurries, but the
potential is VERY LOW. The only caveat to that is with stratus
developing across the north end of the Snake Plain, Teton
Valley, Island Park and Stanley Basin. We could see some seeder
feeder action (high level moisture "feed" the low clouds with
enough to produce sprinkles or flurries) tonight and Thursday
morning. We also included some patchy fog in those areas. What
wind is out there today will continue to dwindle at least for
today. For later tomorrow and tomorrow night, the next surge
drops southeast and clips our part of the central mountains and
around Island Park. Minimal precipitation is expected with
perhaps a small uptick toward 0.10" or so around the higher
elevations surrounding Island Park. It will be breezy again
especially for the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and ridgetops, but
still lower than today. The bigger story overall remains well
above average temperatures. Highs 15-25 degrees warmer than
usual are forecast, with our official climate sites (especially
Idaho Falls, Stanley and Challis) flirting with records today
and tomorrow. Expect a similar trend to continue into the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

The extremely mild December looks to continue through the extended
with temperatures continue to run 15-20 degrees above normal into
the middle part of next week. Friday looks dry just about everywhere
aside from some isolated rain/snow shower potential around the
Island Park area. High pressure ridge builds over the area through
the weekend keeping everyone dry with the unusually warm airmass
remaining in place. Daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s are
expected in the lower valleys. To put this into perspective just a
bit, our normal highs should be within a few degrees of freezing at
Pocatello and Idaho Falls that goes to show you just how warm it`ll
be for this time of year! The ridge does look to get suppressed as
we move into the work week with the upper flow becoming more zonal
in nature. This will likely allow a bit more moisture to move into
the area from the Pacific which will lead to increased cloud cover
and perhaps the introduction of some precip chances once again. Still
a bit of model variability however with respect to the latter
however. Either way, the moisture source remains very mild in nature
so snow levels are still 6500-7000 ft so most areas outside of the
high country would still see a December rain event with any precip
that does fall during the period. Things may cool down ever so
slightly as we move into the middle part of the week which could
lower levels to around 6000 ft by Wednesday. A tight pressure
gradient looks to set up in the Tue-Wed timeframe which would allow
for some breezy days, especially in the Snake Plain. It really does
seem more like October throughout the extended period as opposed to
December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Breezy conditions continue this morning at KPIH, KIDA and KDIJ
and this is expected to remain in place for the duration of the
TAF period. Winds 15-20 kts are likely in these areas with
higher gusts, perhaps lessening slightly overnight. KSUN and
KBYI will see winds more around 10 kts or so. Expect BKN
mid/level CIGs to continue through the period with some
occasional SCT/BKN lower clouds in the 2-4kft range that could
cause some brief reductions to MVFR but generally expecting VFR
to prevail through the period. KDIJ could see some occasional
showers but otherwise, terminals are expected to be dry.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan