255
FXUS65 KPIH 040457
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
957 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm watch in effect for eastern mountain and valley
  zones Thursday night through Friday night. Heavy snow and
  strong winds likely with highly impacted travel.

- Widespread snow likely all locations Thursday night and Friday
  morning. Turning warmer Friday with many lower elevations
  below 5500 feet turning to rain.

- Windy to very windy conditions develop in the Snake River
  plain and on mountain ridges starting Friday and continuing
  through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Main impact will be significant Pacific moisture moving into
southeast Idaho late Thursday through Saturday. A winter storm
watch has been issued for the eastern and southeastern zones
both mountain and valley locations. Current probabilities have a
90 percent chance of greater than 2 inches in valley locations
in watch areas and above 6 inches above 7 thousand feet and a
10 percent chance of over 6 inches an valley locations and above
a foot in higher elevations. The Sawtooths and Sun Valley and
central mountain locations not expected to get as heavy a
snowfall but above 7 thousand feet 4 to 9 inches still possible
with up to 2 inches in the Snake River Plain Thursday night and
Friday morning. Expected to see significant warming Friday and
that could cut snowfall amounts significantly if it occurs
faster than expected in the far eastern mountains. Wind speeds
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will be widespread Friday
and Friday night which could cause extensive blowing snow in the
watch areas as well. Lows tonight teens and 20s with patchy fog
expected once again in valleys and especially parts of the Snake
River Plain. Highs Thursday again 20s mountains and 30s valleys.
Lows Thursday night mainly 20s into lower 30s low elevations and
highs Friday mainly 30s mountains and mid 30s to lower 40s
valleys. Much milder conditions Friday night with lows 20s to
lower 30s mountains and 30s valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

The extended portion of the forecast remains active into the
weekend and early next week, especially across the higher terrain.
Upper level flow aloft will remain active bringing surges of
moisture through the region off and on that will allow for daily
PoPs to remain in the forecast for much of next week. Still a bit of
uncertainty though where the deepest moisture will ultimately reside
over this period. What does seem a bit more certain is the
seasonally mild airmass that will be in place across the area with
daytime highs likely in the 40s and maybe even 50s across the Magic
Valley and Snake Plain, especially as we get into the upcoming work
week. Most of the precip throughout the period will be focused
across the eastern highlands however and these areas will likely
remain just cold enough to keep at least a rain/snow mix in the
forecast during the daylight hours with snow expected during the
overnight periods with some light accumulations expected into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 957 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Stratus deck around SUN this evening overachieved, but
the downvalley wind has kicked in so expect conditions to improve
there soon. DIJ is another place where fog has developed, however, a
4000ft deck exists there so think temps may warm slightly and help
bust up the fog there as well. Starting to see MVFR deck fill in at
PIH and should continue through the night. IDA is flirting with IFR
conditions and all indications are that they will slip into IFR at
some point during the overnight hours. Expect most low clouds to
break up Thursday afternoon although latest guidance is very
pessimistic at IDA. If we struggle to mix out Thursday, we could see
snow and reduced ceilings and visibilities in many places Thursday
evening.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Friday
night for IDZ058>066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...13