668
FXUS65 KPIH 261058 CCA
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
358 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional mainly mountain rain and snow showers throughout
  most of the week

- Extremely mild temperatures through Friday

- Significantly colder temperatures over the weekend through
  early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 103 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

We are looking at one or more rounds of light rain and snow
through Thanksgiving. As with the past couple of days, the bulk
of this falls in the central mountains and eastern highlands.
For 48 hour amounts, look for most areas to see MAYBE a tenth in
higher elevations. A lot of people will not see even a sprinkle
or flurry falling. Up to 0.20" COULD fall in the highest
elevations of the central mountains (Sawtooths and Lost River
Range), as well as along the Wyoming border and around Sawtelle
Peak/Targhee Pass. There is a 20-60% chance of exceeding that
for those locations, and MAYBE a 10-20% chance of eeking out
over 0.40"...but those numbers seem way overdone based on the
type of pattern setting up. Temperatures will be warmer than
average, with warmer temperatures tomorrow...topping out in the
upper 40s through mid 50s for lower elevations. That puts us
10-15 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE for our official climate sites.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Things start to change on Friday as upper level troughing
digs into the area bringing some much colder air to the area for the
weekend and into early next week. Friday temps will run around
seasonal norms but things take a downward turn starting on Saturday.
Models still having some disagreements on the depth and intrusion
of the cold air and a large spread amongst various ensembles still
remains. As such, still seeing a rather large spread within the NBM
itself although things are slowly trending warmer over the last few
runs. That being said, it will still be MUCH colder than what we`ve
seen for much of the month of November with highs likely staying
mostly in the 30s for much of eastern Idaho. Depending on how things
play out with the models, these numbers could get nudged up or down
over the days ahead given the continued uncertainty. On the precip
front, things look to be trending a bit drier with this push of
colder air as well. Nevertheless, still have at least some mention
of PoPs for most of the region Saturday and Sunday with the better
chances focused across the higher terrain in the eastern highlands
but still not looking like any high impact snowfall at the present
time. Again, this can still change this far out and some light snow
at the valley floors is still possible over the weekend. Should have
a bit more clarity on this by the time we get closer to Thanksgiving
Day and some higher resolution model data becomes available. Stay
tuned over the days ahead!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

One or more rounds of showers will scoot across central and
eastern Idaho in the next 24 hours. We should mostly see VFR
weather even with increasing clouds and chance of precipitation.
Trends indicate backing off today with VCSH early on. For
tonight, we see another band developing and shifting northeast
across the entire area. We removed VCSH and threw in PROB30 for
this evening for MVFR conditions in case we can get some snow to
fall. At DIJ, we also backed off from more persistent snow
showers and MVFR this morning and went with VCSH and a TEMPO
indicating that chance is still there. It is too dry with a
weak downslope component in the Teton Valley, so that might even
a bit pushy with the forecast. Expect conditions to improve
slightly overall during the day and return to MVFR, maybe IFR,
tonight.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes