126
FXUS65 KPIH 120313
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
913 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record highs possible through Wednesday with
  afternoon temperatures 20-25 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE

- A few showers or storms possible today and Tuesday, with
  better chances for midweek

- Breezy conditions expected today and Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Warmer temperatures are expected through Wednesday ahead of the
next main storm crossing the state. The race is still on to see
who indeed hits 90 degrees tomorrow or Wednesday. The low
potential for hitting 95 is almost gone now, but still a high
potential of most areas hitting 90 either or both days. With a
weak system passing to our north today, we are looking a few
storms, more likely just virga though, across Island Park into
western Wyoming. For tomorrow, limited moisture surges north
across the area ahead of that midweek low. It should be just
enough for a thunderstorm or two, but like today it should be
mostly virga. Any real potential for that will extend from the
South Hills across the Magic Valley and into the central
mountains. A better chance arrives on Wednesday especially
across the central mountains. There is some concern that these
storms, while producing some light rain, may end up producing
strong downburst winds. Looking at the overall wind pattern and
forecast, the breezy conditions today will subside later this
evening. However, Wednesday is POSSIBLY looking fairly windy out
there. The latest Blend of Models is hitting WIND ADVISORY
thresholds and trying to push to HIGH WIND WARNING levels in
some places. There are two concerns here. This is a huge jump in
the past 24 hours, and it is possible the forecast is too high.
The other possibility is that the higher resolution models that
go into the Blend are picking up on strong outflow winds and
contaminating the forecast. We are content to leave it alone and
see what happens with later runs of the Blend before jumping
onboard fully with any major shift like this. Even if the Blend
is way off base, it will still be breezy out there.

The chance of showers and isolated storms will continue into
Thursday. All of the models have trended faster with swinging
that low across the state and into Montana. The latest Blend
forecast does reflect that and keeps precipitation, especially
up north until the low clears later Thursday. In typical May
fashion, we are going from record/near record highs back into
the 50s and 60s, potentially just below average on Thursday.
This does include the potential for some light snow on the
highest ridgetops and peaks. We warm up briefly back into the
70s on Friday, but right back into the 50s and 60s over the
weekend as overall low pressure settles in for a bit across the
western states.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 908 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the period. There are some
lingering light showers just north of DIJ currently from a
passing weak wave. Clouds will clear out in the next couple of
hours for DIJ. Winds have dropped off significantly for DIJ,
IDA and PIH the last couple of hours with wind speeds of 7 to 11
kts currently. Winds will drop off even more overnight.

High pressure builds in overnight into Tuesday and will bring
clear skies and overall light winds tonight through most of
Tuesday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...TW