707
FXUS65 KPIH 170520
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1020 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery weather with low confidence of timing and amount for
  any location tonight into Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures, but still above climatic normals for the
  time of year through the period.

- Threat of precipitation is less, generally, starting Tuesday,
  and continuing low for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

WV satellite imagery shows upper low centered near central
Nevada shifting northeast, with pair of amplified troughs in the
Pacific. Broad area of showers is moving north through East
Idaho early this afternoon. As upper low approaches Idaho later
today, expect main focus for precipitation to shift to eastern
highlands for the evening and overnight. Temperatures remain
mild as cold front pushes northeast across the area. Snow levels
stay elevated above 7000 feet during the night, but could see a
bit of snow mix with the rain as low as 6500 feet by early
Monday morning. Thus even at pass level accumulations should
only be 1-3". Upper trough should be east of Idaho by early
Monday but next split system is already along the coast. There
is a weak 5H ridge in place for Monday, but showers will remain
possible across the region, mostly focused over higher
elevations. Temperatures are slightly colder than today with
snow accumulations remaining above 7000 ft. The incoming system
continues to split, leading to a decrease in precipitation
through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Recent troubles with model consistency and agreement in the
longer term continue today. The next system fully splits during
the day Tuesday with the southern low closing over southern
California, and the northern stream ejecting a small shortwave
through the PacNW for a continued chance of showers. There are
already significant model differences in how the systems evolve
through the remainder of the forecast, and quite a bit of model
spread for both precipitation and temperatures. The long range
ensemble means continue the trend of developing a deep split
flow across the western half of the US through the end of the
week. Clusters portray the northern stream north of the
US/Canada border with either a closed low or open trough near
the Four Corners and Southern Rockies or off the California
coast. In general both of these solutions should produce drier
conditions for East Idaho, but the NBM maintains weak
precipitation each period through Saturday. Additionally, NBM
means support daytime high temperatures remaining in the 40s
for the extended, but a stronger ridge could nudge highs back
into the lower to mid 50s based on the probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Only a few minor tweaks made to impacts and timing in the 06z TAF
package. One more round of organized precipitation is approaching
southeast Idaho from the south, and is forecast to transition across
KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ tonight into Monday morning. Cigs are still
expected to drop to MVFR at all three terminals (possibly borderline
IFR at KDIJ) which will linger into Monday afternoon after rain
ends. Temperature profiles will be VERY marginal for rain vs. snow
at KDIJ, and while most guidance holds dewpoints at or above 35
degrees supporting rain, evaporative cooling and melting processes
may be just enough to at least mix in snow, thus we carry -RASN with
a vsby hit to 3SM from 09-19z/2am-noon Monday. Even without snow,
upstream observations from Utah and Wyoming support vsbys dropping
to at least 4 SM under the steadier rainfall, while conditions may
hold a bit better at KPIH and KIDA as both terminals will be along
the western edge of the precip shield. Meanwhile, VCSH will end
tonight at KSUN and KBYI with generally VFR conditions. The region
will be quite moist tonight...hard to rule out patchy fog or mist
especially where there has been recent rainfall, but confidence is
too low to latch onto any additional impacts in the forecast at this
time. The HRRR favors KIDA, but winds potentially 10+kts casts doubt
on the efficacy of any fog formation, with perhaps low stratus
favored.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...01