272
FXUS65 KPIH 291004
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
404 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for thunderstorms today.

- Drier and gradually warmer this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Main concern for today is the question of thunderstorm coverage as a
weak upper level trough arrives from the northwest. The HRRR is very
bullish on development off the central mountains into the Snake
Plain this afternoon. This can occur when the upper level flow is
from the northwest. The NAM just shows mainly cumulus buildup while
the HREF shows some modest returns that hold in the central
mountains. The GFS is dry and the NBM is similar to the HREF,
keeping some slight chances in the central mountains. Given the
number of models that aren`t as bullish with the convection, the NBM
forecast is probably the most likely solution. But there is probably
a 20 or 30 percent chance that the HRRR could verify and we have
storms roll across the Snake Plain this afternoon. If storms
develop, expect those to weaken early this evening. Highs today for
most communities look to be in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees and
outside thunderstorms winds will probably be relatively light.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A ridge of high pressure returns across the Great Basin this
weekend, ushering in a period of drier and warmer conditions through
Labor Day. Daytime high temperatures rebound into the mid 80s for
most lower elevations by Monday. Leading into the remainder of the
week post-holiday, ensemble clusters depict some different scenarios
regarding encroachment of the low off the coast inland. The result
in differences in amplitude of the upper ridge across the Great
Basin and East Idaho. The NBM means reintroduce weak thunderstorm
chances across higher elevations beginning Tuesday, and maintains
daytime highs in the 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 404 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Main concern is if storms develop. The HRRR and WRF
continues to show storms developing off the central mountains this
afternoon and drifting into the Snake Plain. Potentially this would
impact SUN, IDA, and PIH. Most other models are not as aggressive
with the convection. Will continue to mention a PROB 30 at these
sites for this afternoon. Otherwise, vfr conditions with light winds
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Drier weather will work into the area today. There
continues to be a slight chance of a thunderstorm today. Otherwise
winds are expected to be light. Dry weather is likely for Saturday.
Once again a stray storm may be possible, but the chances are
probably less than 10 percent.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13