951
FXUS65 KPIH 241107
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
407 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stronger winds this afternoon especially across higher
  elevations of the central mountains and Snake Plain/Magic
  Valley

- Quick round of showers through this evening with mostly light
  snow in the mountains

- Unsettled pattern ahead and the potential for much colder
  temperatures late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 102 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

We have a quick hitter swinging through this evening, bringing
more wind than anything else. There will be some light
precipitation coming with this, mainly in the form of snow
showers across the mountains. We COULD see a few light showers
across lower elevations, but chances are low especially for
anything measurable. The bulk of the moisture is across the
Sawtooths and surrounding mountains, and the Tetons/Big
Holes/Sawtell Peak area. There is a 30-60% chance of exceeding
0.20" across the Sawtooths and 35-65% chance of exceeding that
across mainly areas adjacent to the Tetons and Yellowstone. That
equates to just a couple of inches of snow with locally higher
amounts. Snow levels peak at 5000-6500 ft ahead of the colder
air arriving. The low end of the snow level range does indicate
we could see a mix or some snowflakes at lowest elevations...but
nothing significant or at pass level. Now, getting to the
wind...we should see that pick later this morning and last
through mid evening before things quickly shut down. Many areas
will see gusts 25-35 mph. We will see gusts hitting 35-50 mph
across portions of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, especially
if we can get stronger mixing going this afternoon. We currently
have a WIND ADVISORY in place for the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley, and will leave it alone. The wind forecast overall did
come down a bit since Sunday, but not enough to make any
changes. We are dry most of Tuesday, with the next round quickly
moving into the central mountains and eastern highlands
tomorrow night. Before cooler air filters in later today, highs
will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across valley locations.
Tomorrow will see highs 5-10 degrees cooler with low 40s only
forecast across the Magic Valley and south toward the Utah
border.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Shallow upper ridge is in place for through Thanksgiving Day,
There is still some expectation for weak energy to overtop the
ridge especially Wednesday and Thanksgiving for light
precipitation mainly higher elevations. Travel impacts should be
minimal, if any for these days. Ensembles diverge on details
for the remainder of the forecast period, but the general tone
remains similar to previous days. Incoming PacNW shortwave dives
south through the western states Friday into Saturday,
developing a deep trough across the Intermountain West for the
weekend. Showers become more widespread Friday and Saturday,
with potential for light snowfall to reach valley floors by late
Saturday. What could be the coldest air mass of the season so
far looks possible for Sunday into early next week. There is
still a lot of spread in the ensembles, and significant
differences in the depth of the trough via the ensemble
clusters. Thus there is still a lot of potential for change this
far out in the forecast. As of now, the probabilistic chance of
forecast highs BELOW freezing for lower elevations Sunday and
Monday are roughly 15-35% for most lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

We do expect some showers around through this evening but the
bigger story for many will be the stronger winds. For all TAF
sites except SUN, look for southwest winds at 20-30kts sustained
with gusts 35-45kt possible by late morning through just after
sunset. At SUN, we are likely looking a brief period of upvalley
wind...quickly going back west-northwest at 15-25kts before
going more northwest toward sunset and backing off in speed.
Clouds will be lowering with the uptick is shower chances
throughout the day, but keep things at VFR. We COULD be
flirting with MVFR/high end IFR especially at SUN and DIJ with
showers. DIJ will be the last site seeing showers/VCSH ending
this evening, with everyone else ending during the afternoon
from west to east. Right now, we don`t have low clouds or fog in
for Tuesday morning...but that is something to watch out for. It
will be very cold in the morning which MAY allow us to get close
enough to full saturation. Stay tuned.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening for
IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Keyes