374
FXUS65 KPIH 172128
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
228 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery weather continues throughout the week with low
  confidence in timing and amount for any location.

- Cooler temperatures but still above climatic normals for the
  time of year through the period.

- Threat of precipitation will generally be less starting
  Tuesday and remain lower for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows continued widespread low to mid
clouds in place throughout eastern Idaho. Radar returns have mostly
diminished throughout the region but still expecting to see some
very light high elevations showers continue into the overnight hours
around the Island Park region and into parts of the central
mountains. Any additional QPF would be very light and snow levels
are running about 7000-7500 ft so below these levels, rain is most
likely. Expecting clouds to linger for much of the overnight and
into the first part of the day on Tuesday. This will keep overnight
lows well above seasonal norms with 30s expected in most valley
locations with 20s across the high country, about 10-15 degrees
above normal. Should start to see some breaks in clouds after
daybreak tomorrow and temps will warm into the low to mid 50s across
the Snake Plain and Magic Valley with precip chances generally below
20 percent. A stray shower again around Island Park and/or the
central mountains will remain possible but of very low impact.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

The extended portion of the forecast remains unsettled but also
fairly low-impact as the upper flow aloft looks to remain split
across our part of the country. Models show a couple of cutoff lows
moving into California from mid week and into the weekend while most
moisture stays clear of eastern Idaho. Still could see some isolated
high elevation showers at some point but models seem to be going
back and forth with this. Temperatures will remain on the
warmer side of normal by around 5 degrees. This equates to upper
40s and low 50s for highs in the valleys but there is still a
decent spread within the model guidance so things could still
fluctuate a bit over the days ahead. Either way, not seeing any
high impact systems between now and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1018 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Rain and snow continues to diminish as the main low is shifting
toward the Plains. We do expect some slow improvement across
the area. We should eventually go VFR with mid clouds remaining
at BYI, IDA, PIH. The bigger question marks are at SUN and DIJ.
At DIJ, there a lot of moisture showing up now and forecast to
remain in place across the Teton Valley. We continued the trend
of MVFR/high end IFR ceilings at that TAF site through tomorrow
morning. Confidence at SUN is really not there for a ton of
improvement ceiling-wise. That have IFR/LIFR this morning with
light winds. The wind is now trying to do the usual upvalley
wind direction, which seems to be scouring out the really low
cloud deck...along with seeing some breaks in the low and mid
level decks overall. We slowly improve ceilings to VFR by mid
evening, but that may be way too optimistic. There is a lot of
moisture around the valley AND there is no clear switch to a
decent Northwest wind tonight. We did keep broken mid level
clouds in there that are "VFR" through tomorrow afternoon. We
wouldn`t be surprised to see things end up more pessimistic
until closer to sunrise tomorrow morning. Stay tuned.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes