203
FXUS65 KPIH 252311
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
411 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional mainly mountain rain and snow showers throughout
  most of the week

- Extremely mild temperatures Wednesday through Friday

- Significantly colder temperatures over the weekend through
  early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1228 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Minimal impacts expected through Wednesday night as we head into
Thanksgiving morning. Will have a few upper level short waves
pushing over upper lever ridge to west with some showers late
tonight in the Sawtooths, Central mountains and Upper Snake
Highlands with most likely amounts under 0.1 inches and the same
occurs Wednesday night with very light precipiation amounts once
again. Will be warmer tonight with increasing cloud cover with
lows mainly teens mountains and 20s lower elevations. Highs
Wednesday will be above normal once again with mid 30s to around
40 mountains and 40s to near 50 lower elevations. Lows Wednesday
night in the 20s and 30s. Wind impacts not expected in the short
term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Not much has changed much in the extended portion of the compared to
yesterday. Thanksgiving Day looks to be a rather mild day for
eastern Idaho with temps expected to top out in the upper 40s to mid
50s for most locales. Slightly cooler of course in the higher
elevations and around Island Park but still unusually mild for late
November. Things start to change on Friday as upper level troughing
digs into the area bringing some much colder air to the area for the
weekend and into early next week. Friday temps will run around
seasonal norms but things take a downward turn starting on Saturday.
Models still having some disagreements on the depth and intrusion
of the cold air and a large spread amongst various ensembles still
remains. As such, still seeing a rather large spread within the NBM
itself although things are slowly trending warmer over the last few
runs. That being said, it will still be MUCH colder than what we`ve
seen for much of the month of November with highs likely staying
mostly in the 30s for much of eastern Idaho. Depending on how things
play out with the models, these numbers could get nudged up or down
over the days ahead given the continued uncertainty. On the precip
front, things look to be trending a bit drier with this push of
colder air as well. Nevertheless, still have at least some mention
of PoPs for most of the region Saturday and Sunday with the better
chances focused across the higher terrain in the eastern highlands
but still not looking like any high impact snowfall at the present
time. Again, this can still change this far out and some light snow
at the valley floors is still possible over the weekend. Should have
a bit more clarity on this by the time we get closer to Thanksgiving
Day and some higher resolution model data becomes available. Stay
tuned over the days ahead!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions continue this evening with increasing cloud cover
heading to all terminals tonight through most of Wednesday.
Continued with VCSH at KSUN, though confidence there remains low and
showers may stay a bit farther north and west of the terminal, but
will watch that this evening/tonight. Chance of showers at KPIH and
KIDA is closer to 10-20 percent, so will hold off on any showers in
the TAF for now, but that may be a change with later TAF issuance
depending on forecast trends over the next 12 hours or so and
would not be surprised to see a few flurries at KIDA. KBYI is
expected to remain dry and the best chance for light snow will
be at KDIJ where MVFR CIGs and VIS are in the forecast starting
around 10Z early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...AMM