661
FXUS65 KPIH 131134
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
534 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daytime temperatures today will warm to around 20 degrees
  above climatological norms ahead of cold front

- Wind Advisory for much of Southeast Idaho today for gusts to
  55 mph

- Scattered, mostly dry thunderstorms today with the potential
  for gusts 65 mph or greater

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

A fast moving shortwave trough will move through today, bringing
substantial wind impacts, scattered thunderstorms, and cooler
temperatures behind the cold front. Ahead of the front, temperatures
should manage to warm to around 20 degrees above climatological
normals today with our low elevation areas reaching the mid- to
upper 80s. While cloud cover could inhibit heating ahead of the
front, southerly winds should rapidly warm temperatures.

Mostly dry thunderstorms will be capable of severe wind gusts over
60 mph. CAMs all generally show a line of showers/thunderstorms
shift through late morning with a more robust round of convection
working through the region early afternoon. HREF probability of
thunder ranges 30 to 60 percent across much of Southeast Idaho,
generally east of the central mountains. The Storm Prediction Center
has upgraded most of our CWA to a SLIGHT RISK of severe
thunderstorms with a CIG1 indicating the potential for severe wind
gusts 65 mph or greater. Surface winds will already be strong across
the region as 55 (+/-) kt 500 mb winds mix down to the surface and
so convective winds will have a much easier time exceeding 60 mph. A
Wind Advisory remains in effect for a good portion of Southeast
Idaho from Noon to 10 PM this evening for sustained West/Southwest
winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Temperatures will run cooler on Thursday behind the departing
system, with daytime temps 15 or so degrees cooler. We will remain
in a breezy zonal regime with generally quiet conditions until the
next trough brings more chances for showers and thunderstorms during
the weekend and cools temperatures into the 50s and 60s through
early next week. This will mean temperatures conducive for frost as
early as Friday or Saturday morning with freezing temperatures
beginning Sunday morning and even hard freeze for some of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Shortwave trough will quickly move through today, bringing scattered
convection and strong winds. Of greatest impact today will be the
wind, with gusts to around 45 kts and the potential for convective
wind gusts to reach or exceed 60 kts. Strong winds will subside
heading into the late evening but remain breezy.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ051>057-067>070-075.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp