343
FXUS65 KPIH 141915
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
115 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warming into Sunday afternoon, turning cooler for
  the first half of the upcoming week. Hotter by Thursday.

- Risk of thunderstorms each afternoon/evening Sunday through
  Tuesday in the Idaho-Montana border region.

- Breezy to windy Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure will remain in place during this time, although a
weak shortwave will push through southern Canada and trigger a
low chance of thunderstorms in the ID-MT border portion of the
forecast area for Sun afternoon. Little to no wind, and mostly
terrain-driven by slope-valley wind effect.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Dry and warm conditions should be in place for the majority of the
extended period. Trough oriented along the coast for Monday should
allow for increased moisture, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development mainly across higher elevations. Better
chances occur on Tuesday as the shortwave lifts through the region.
Slightly cooler temperatures occur early in the period, but warmer
temperatures redevelop for the remainder of the work week as a weak
ridge reestablishes itself. By the weekend, models introduce a
deeper low into the PacNW, which progresses across the region for
the weekend. There is a very wide range in temperature outcomes by
Saturday, with 10th percentile as low as mid 60s and 90th percentile
staying near 90. Interestingly, the NBM does not yet develop
significant precipitation coverage for the weekend, held by both the
GFS and ECMWF maintaining dry south flow across the region. Changes
possible? We`ll see how this plays out over the next several days.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High clouds will continue across the region into Sunday morning.
Afternoon gusts around 20kts should dissipate by or around sunset,
leaving light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak system passing
to the north on Sunday will create afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 25
mph in many areas through the weekend. Minimum humidities Saturday
and Sunday afternoon will generally be in the teens to low 20s.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...13