002
FXUS65 KPIH 230716
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
116 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch for Local Burn Scars: A Flash Flood Watch is
  in effect for the Wapiti, Ohio, and Big Rock burn scars Today,
  where precipitation could trigger debris flows and rapid
  runoff.

- Widespread showers through most of Today.

- Much colder Today.

- Dry weather returns Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Rain has arrived across central and east Idaho. Low pressure
will move through our area today. We should see that circulation
in the radar reflectivity fields today. Storm total rainfall
amounts remain all over the board. Models just having a tough
time figuring out the amount of dry air in the system verses the
rain intensity. The NBM 10th percentile ranges from 0.10 to
0.25 inches with slightly higher amounts across the central
mountains into the Island Park region. The 50th percentile is
roughly around 0.75 to 1.00 inches with higher amounts across
the central mountains into Island Park where the wrap around
moisture is expected to be more persistent. This is roughly
where the official forecast is. The 90th percentile is very high
still, well over an inch in most places and closer to 1.50 to
2.00 inches. So what this tells us is there is a lot of
uncertainty with this system. Amounts will most likely range
from roughly 0.50 to 1.25 inches with the highest amounts over
the mountains into Island Park, but it could still end up a lot
higher if the models have overdone the amount of dry air or it
could end up a lot lower if the models have not accounted for
the dry air enough. It will be much colder today, that we know
for sure! Most areas will struggle to reach 50 today. Some high
level snow remains possible, mainly across the central mountains
but it shouldn`t create too many impacts to roads, if any at
all.

This system should exit the area by Saturday with dry weather
settling in for the weekend into Monday. Another low pressure system
arrives Tuesday, but qpf amounts look much less, probably less than
0.25 inches for most of us. Temperatures will remain slightly below
average for most of the week, we could approach seasonable values on
Monday ahead of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Expect worsening conditions today with ceilings falling to MVFR
and possibly IFR by afternoon for many locations. Winds will
pick up this afternoon with gusts to 30 kts certainly possible
at many sites as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Wetting rains are likely across much of the area today. Winds
look lighter across the central mountains, but gusts of 30 to 40
mph are likely across much of southern and eastern Idaho today.
Drier weather with lighter winds returns for Saturday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13