271
FXUS65 KPIH 140839
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
139 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet through Monday afternoon with a few mountain flurries,
  night and morning low cloudiness, and patchy fog.

- Warming trend starts today, continues Sunday, then levels off
  on Monday.

- Next winter storm arrives Monday night, potential moderate to
  heavy snow producer in elevations above 7500 feet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today through Mon night...Satellite images show areas of
fog/stratus are more limited tonight, although much of it is
obscured from cirriform clouds due to a weak trough passing
through Montana. Most METAR locations indicate no stratus or at
best some SCT035 or so. That trough should bring some partly
sunny to mostly cloud conditions later this morning. The trough
could trigger some light showers in the central Idaho mountains,
mainly northwest of the divides and over the Island Park region,
closest to the trough. Accumulations are expected to be
negligible, staying below 0.5 of an inch of snow over the next
48 hours. Mon should be dry even in these locations with
increasing cloud cover. Then the skies open up with moderate to
heavy precipitation developing after midnight just about
everywhere, but especially in the northern half of the forecast
area. Guidance is very consistent with the precipitation
starting between 5PM and 11PM Mon night and increasing after
11PM Mon night.

Overnight lows will be at their coldest this morning, then some
strong warming today will begin a warming trend for both highs
and lows. High temperatures will level off on Mon as clouds
increase, then mild overnight lows Mon night as precipitation.

Wind remains light today through Sun morning, then a slight
increase occurs for Sun afternoon. By Mon afternoon wind should
be at 10-20 mph with higher gusts over much of the forecast
area, save for some sheltered valleys in the eastern highlands.
A slight let up except along the ID-NV and ID-UT borders for Mon
night. And should be a moderate southerly wind, which will make
for some very mild conditions in downslope wind event for places
from Pocatello west to Burley.

Tue through Fri...The main trough stays west of the forecast
area, pumping in warm moist air through at least Wed. Then some
clusters push the trough through on Thu, putting the forecast
area on the colder side. Troughing continues through Fri. This
should mean some catching up on the precipitation defecit this
winter will occur during this period. Temperatures even at low
elevations will struggle to reach freezing by Thu, so the
heavily populated areas will see the mostly rain event
previously turn over to nearly all snow by Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals currently with generally less than
50% probability of MVFR CIGs through morning. Model guidance
continues to indicate very little chance of BR/FG during the morning
hours. HREF is carrying less than 15% chance of IFR CIGs returning
early morning to KIDA and/or KDIJ through 12z. Otherwise, expect
light winds under 8 kts for the most part, variable at times.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Messick
AVIATION...Cropp