521
FXUS65 KPIH 290015
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
615 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decreasing chances for rain through Friday.

- Drier and gradually warmer this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Satellite imagery shows that the main low that brought the precip
over the past few days has shifted into Wyoming early this
afternoon. Light rainfall still occurring along the Divide near
Island Park per radar imagery, and a few thunderstorms beginning to
fire elsewhere. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon with the best concentration across the northeast. Locally
heavy rainfall remains possible this afternoon, but the threat
diminishes moving through the evening and early overnight. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms repeat across higher elevations on Friday
afternoon/evening, otherwise the trend is for drier conditions as
PWATs continue to fall over the next 36 hours. Only other short term
concern is smoke concentrations. Smoke is apparent on satellite
imagery today moving in from the west. HRRR smoke fields keeps most
of the smoke integrated throughout the airmass overnight and into
Friday, but there is just enough concentration at the surface to
support carrying patchy smoke in places. Highest potential will be
in valleys where overnight inversions set up well tonight, generally
south of US-26 but also sneaking northwest through the Lost River
and Pahsimeroi valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A ridge of high pressure returns across the Great Basin this
weekend, ushering in a period of drier and warmer conditions through
Labor Day. Daytime high temperatures rebound into the mid 80s for
most lower elevations by Monday. Leading into the remainder of the
week post-holiday, ensemble clusters depict some different scenarios
regarding encroachment of the low off the coast inland. The result
in differences in amplitude of the upper ridge across the Great
Basin and East Idaho. The NBM means reintroduce weak thunderstorm
chances across higher elevations beginning Tuesday, and maintains
daytime highs in the 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Risk of TS in the first four hours at KDIJ comes out to 59 to
68 percent chance, so have put in a TEMPO group for that period.
KIDA barely qualifies for a PROB30 group for the first three
hours. Otherwise, expect very little activity at KPIH, KBYI, and
KSUN tonight. Any CIG of impact should be with TS tonight, then
a cirrus shield over KSUN late tonight. Wind is weaker during
the day Fri. Only KSUN has a mentionable chance for TS on Fri
afternoon, but will see after the 29/00Z data dump if that
changes. Operational HRRR favors KSUN and possibly KPIH, but the
placement of thunderstorms is fairly mercurial in nature,
especially 20+ hours out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

After a few days of widespread clouds and rain throughout the
region, we`re beginning to transition back to a warmer, drier
pattern as we move into the holiday weekend. Still expecting to see
some isolated showers and storms today, mainly across the
easternmost portions of the region while clouds continue to clear
out into the day tomorrow. Precip chances look very sparse, but not
zero, for Friday before they become non-existent for the weekend and
into Labor Day. Temperatures will continue to warm through the
period but stay around seasonal levels for late August and early
September thus keeping RHs above any critical levels with no strong
wind concerns either into at least the middle of next week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan