402
FXUS65 KPIH 030938
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
238 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light showers in the next 24 hours, then another weak
  storm arrives Thursday morning. Much heavier mountain snow for
  Friday and Friday night.

- Highs and lows after tonight will be on an unsteady warming
  trend and staying very mild for the time of year.

- Windy to very windy conditions develop in the Snake River
  plain and on mountain ridges starting Friday and continuing
  through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Something of a breather for the next 24 hours, with some
flurries winding up in Cassia county this morning and then late
tonight some flurries developing in the upper Snake River
highlands. The mean northwesterly flow continues, with the next
impulse moving in from northwest to southeast starting Thu
morning. This is another weak storm that doesn`t generate much
precipitation; once again, it looks to be less than Winter
Weather Advisory criteria even in the eastern highlands and the
northwest side of the central Idaho mountains. Once again there
is a precipitation shadow for all the Wood and Lost River
basins. With a let up either Thu night or Fri morning, another
trough should move through this mean northwesterly flow. This
event will be bringing much more moisture than the two previous
snow events. It will also be warmer, so it will be mostly rain
at the Snake River plain elevations, but above the all snow
level the accumulation will rate a Winter Storm Warning.

This will couple with some very windy conditions to actually
use the lower thresholds for Winter Storm criteria. At the lower
elevations, it may need a Wind Advisory or a High Wind Warning
for the Snake River plain on Fri afternoon.

Temperatures will be near normal today and tonight with it
taking a while for the wind to shift from the north to south.
Warming starts Wednesday, and a gradual warming in this
southerly flow means low elevation temperatures will warm into
the lower to middle 40s in portions of the eastern Magic Valley
, lower Snake River plain, and southern hills.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Sat/Sat night continues to have this northwest upper level flow
that keeps up the threat of precipitation. On Sun/Sun night the
upper level ridge is building and shifting the storm track
farther north, with about 75 percent of the solutions indicating
this, while the remainder keep it about the same as Sat. By
Mon, the west coast ridge is dominating strongly. the flow is
still northwest, and the light precipitation threat out there
barely rises above 25 percent risk, few clouds and just breezy
to windy conditions means Mon is the warmest day in the next
week. This upper level ridge de-amplifies for Mon night and all
of Tue, besides shifting, possibly, to either overhead or to the
east. This would open up the risk of some precipitation with
another shortwave impulse moving through the flatter flow.

This makes Sun and Mon the driest days. Every period appears to
be windy to very windy in the Snake River plain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Snowfall is in the process of ending over the next 1-2 hours at KDIJ
and KBYI, with most sites trending back toward VFR cigs/vsbys
thereafter. The exception will be KBYI where guidance continues to
indicate they will be socked in with IFR low stratus overnight into
Wednesday morning along with potentially some nearby fog/mist. We
continue to tweak anticipated timing on this. KPIH and KSUN will be
right on the edge of the favored area for fog/stratus at times, with
some hints of this included in their TAFs but low confidence on
introducing any predominant impacts at this time. Clouds trend
toward FEW as Wednesday progresses.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...01