723
FXUS65 KPIH 261800
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1200 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will persist across central and eastern Idaho
  with a HEAT ADVISORY in effect today

- Monsoon moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms going
  although chances will gradually diminish

- Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions expected for
  the next several days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Big picture pattern for the first half of the week is a ridge
of high pressure centered over the southern Rockies which is
sending monsoon moisture our way. Meanwhile, an upper level
trough is pressing into the Pacific Northwest. We`re in the
middle between these two features. This keeps a threat for
afternoon and evening storms going through the first half of the
week with the southeast highlands with the better chances for
isolated to scattered storms. We also remain mild if not hot
with temps in the mid 90s and possibly approaching to 100 as the
NBM has been underperforming on highs the past few days. So the
heat advisory continues through today at least. Expect breezy
conditions across the central mountains into the upper Snake
River Plain with the upper trough trying to press into the
ridge. We are watching smoke potential from the Oregon
wildfires. HRRR smoke model shows some smoke moving back into
the Magic Valley this morning and retreating for the afternoon.
Potentially, a bigger surge of near surface smoke for Monday
which could extend into the Snake Plain.

Looks like the trough passes through Thursday and the monsoonal flow
diminishes. We still remain under the influence of the ridge for
late week into the weekend. But it looks drier with fewer clouds so
that may allow our temps to rise back towards 100, assuming they
back off some early to mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Latest indications are that TSRA activity will be limited to the
early evening at KIDA and KPIH, and afternoon to early evening
for KDIJ. Strong gusty outflow would be the main problem other
than lightning, with nothing impactful expected to CIG or VSBY.
Cloud bases are at 600mb or above. Cirriform clouds increase
during the overnight hours, and after midnight should constitute
a CIG for KDIJ, KBYI, and KPIH. By 27/12Z the CIG will have
reached KIDA and KSUN as well. Still at mid-level elevations and
higher, there should be some -SHRA during the morning, starting
as early as 27/11Z. The TSRA threat is low in the morning, but
may have to be monitored. The extensive mid- and high level
cloudiness will cool temperatures but without increasing the
risk of TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Isolated storms will continue this afternoon mainly across the
central mountains and southeast highlands. Gusty outflow winds
are possible once again with storms. Near critical winds/rh
exist this afternoon across the central mountains into the Snake
River Plain. Could be near critical conditions for wind and rh
once again on Monday for the same areas.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>059.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ475-476.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...13