105
FXUS65 KPIH 071745
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1045 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow in the mountains this afternoon and tonight. Rain
  in some of the lower elevations

- Even warmer temperatures on Tuesday, approaching record
  warmth.

- Moderate to heavy snow for high elevations in the mountains
  and highlands Tuesday-Tuesday night. Windy Tuesday night
  through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Coastal upper level ridging continues to keep the forecast area
on the edge of the storm track, a little farther north than
during the latest winter storm. This means slightly warmer
temperatures which will push snow levels higher. The next short
wave moving through this mean northwesterly flow arrives during
the afternoon and continues overnight. Light precipitation
continues on Mon/Mon evening, with snow level remaining fairly
high. Then Mon late night/Tue/Tue night an impulse with much
more moisture pushes in through and leaves moderate to heavy
snow in the mountains and light rainfall at lower elevations.

Temperatures are still forecasted to be very mild for the time
of year. Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley will range
from 35 to 45 deg F for today. Even Stanley is in the upper
30s. On Mon, afternoon highs are up another 2 to 4 deg F with
eastern Magic Valley surpassing 50 deg F. The 50 deg highs
nearly reach Idaho Falls on Tue. And Stanley on that day exceeds
40 deg. Cloud cover at night also means mild overnight lows,
with few places below 6000ft elevation getting below freezing.

Being so near the storm track aloft, some of that momentum can
be seen at the surface, but on the order of 15 to 25 mph wind at
a maximum.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cluster analysis was not available at forecast time. The good
news is that the deterministic NBM indicates that Wed is the
last period for significant precipitation for the entire
forecast area. The upper level ridge has been expected to
amplify, and this time it looks like it will be sunny and dry
conditions, with high temperatures in the lower 50s for the
lower Snake River plain and Magic Valley, with overnight lows
getting colder with less cloud cover, eventually dropping below
freezing Thu night or Fri night. With the feature that passes
through at the end of the near term forecast, there will be some
post frontal wind that continues Wed and Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Worst flying conditions likely at DIJ this afternoon and
overnight with the potential for MVFR to IFR conditions after
22Z with snow and low ceilings. Have VFR at all other sites
through 18Z Monday. Winds will likely increase overnight tonight
and Monday morning to sustained 10 to 20 knots at PIH, IDA and
BYI with gusts approaching 20 to 30 knots as well.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...GK