507
FXUS65 KPIH 132320
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
520 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk of thunderstorms continues tonight for the central Idaho
  mountains and eastern highlands.

- Thunderstorms limited to the Montana border Saturday afternoon
  and evening.

- Afternoon highs continue in the 80s for the Snake River plain
  and southern valleys, 70s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A weak impulse moving through NE OR and the ID panhandle will
trigger some isolated thunderstorms in the central Idaho
mountains and the upper Snake River highlands. Instability on
Sat will bring convective build ups, but the thunderstorm
activity will be very limited and, if it happens, will be along
the ID-MT border. Another impulse will trigger weak showers and
thunderstorms again on Sun in the mountains and highlands of the
northern half of the forecast area. A stronger trough finally
arrives on Mon, bringing back a threat of showers and
thunderstorms for the nearly the whole area, save the southwest
corner and eastern Magic Valley.

Temperatures will warm slightly and level off on Sun and Mon.
Wind should be breezy and gusty in the Arco Desert and Craters
of the Moon region on Mon afternoon, but otherwise expect wind
to stay at or less than 15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Models try to push shortwave through the region Tuesday, for what is
probably the best chance of the week for thunderstorm development.
This appears to be a fast moving shallow feature, so not a lot of
moisture associated with it, most of which stays north. For right
now, the chances for thunder from this feature look confined to
northern areas along/near the MT border and Yellowstone regions.
Elsewhere, expect gusty afternoon winds Tuesday. The remainder of
the period looks to be dry with temperatures rebounding to near or
slightly above 90 degrees for lower elevation areas, remaining above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Following the departure of a shortwave trough this evening,
expect a return to clear skies and light winds overnight. For
Saturday, increasing upper-level clouds will build in through
the day as predominant VFR and dry conditions continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms today, mainly over our
northern areas and the Southeast Highlands.  Gusty outflow winds of
around 30 to 40 mph are likely with any thunderstorms. Small hail is
also likely with thunderstorms. High temperatures today will be in
the 70s and 80s across the area. The area begins to dry out again by
Friday and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s
and 90s by Sunday. Models continue to show a weak wave moving over
the area early next week bringing very low precipitation chances,
but looks to drop temperatures slightly bringing back 70s and
80s.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...TW