417
FXUS65 KPIH 240544
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1044 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory Noon to 8 PM Monday for west winds 20 to 30 MPH
  gusting 50 MPH eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain corridor;
  difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles.

- Quick round of mountain snow tonight through Monday thanks to
  the same cold front bringing Monday`s wind.

- Unsettled pattern ahead and the potential for much colder
  temperatures late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

This morning`s patchy dense fog has finally eroded and many of
us are enjoying some afternoon sunshine. As we soak it up,
highs will return to the mid and upper 40s for most with a few
low 50s here and there. Late tonight, a cold front begins to
work its way into our CWA and it will bring some mountain snow
and gusty winds with it along with cooler air, but the chill
won`t reach most of us until Tuesday. Since this is a quick
moving front on Monday, we`re not expecting too much
precipitation with it. In fact, most of us in the eastern Magic
Valley and Snake River Plain will stay totally dry with most of
the snow confined to our mountains once again. There`s about a
10 percent chance for at least an inch of snow up near Stanley,
about a 30 percent chance of the same for Victor and Island
Park, and about a 40 percent chance of at least an inch for Pine
Creek Pass and Emigration Summit. It will be above 8000 feet or
so where we see the bulk of our snow and that will be closer to
2 to 7 inches for our mountains by the time snow ends late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

What more of us will notice on Monday will be the wind. As the cold
front moves through, expect winds to increase quite a bit from the
"light" winds we`ve been enjoying for most of this last week and
weekend. Sustained winds will generally range from 20 to 30 mph with
gusts up to 50 mph. Have gone ahead and issued a Wind Advisory
for the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain for Monday
from noon to 8 PM. The NBM is showing about a 40 percent chance
of 50 mph gusts and a 60 to 80 percent chance of gusts greater
than 45 mph from Carey across the Arco desert/Craters of the
Moon area to Atomic City. It`s about a 20 to 40 percent chance
of 45 mph gusts from American Falls up to Idaho Falls and about
a 15 percent chance of 50 mph gusts. As noted by the advisory
ending at 8 PM, winds will diminish in the evening and will be
much lighter on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Shallow upper ridge is in place for Tuesday through Thanksgiving
Day, There is still some expectation for weak energy to overtop the
ridge especially Wednesday and Thanksgiving for light precipitation
mainly higher elevations. Travel impacts should be minimal, if any
for these days. Ensembles diverge on details for the remainder of
the forecast period, but the general tone remains similar to
previous days. Incoming PacNW shortwave dives south through the
western states Friday into Saturday, developing a deep trough across
the Intermountain West for the weekend.  Showers become more
widespread Friday and Saturday, with potential for light snowfall to
reach valley floors by late Saturday. What could be the coldest air
mass of the season so far looks possible for Sunday into early next
week. There is still a lot of spread in the ensembles, and
significant differences in the depth of the trough via the ensemble
clusters. Thus there is still a lot of potential for change this far
out in the forecast. As of now, the probabilistic chance of forecast
highs BELOW freezing for lower elevations Sunday and Monday are
roughly 15-35% for most lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

A variety of minor tweaks were made to the TAFs for the 06z package,
but no drastic trends or shifts. An approaching shortwave trough
will bring thickening mid-level clouds tonight, with high confidence
in any cigs remaining solidly VFR through late morning Monday at
KBYI/KIDA/KPIH, and through at least sunrise at KSUN/KDIJ. We then
advertise a period of VCSH at all terminals...CAMs continue to
support the best chance of rain/snow showers near KSUN and
(especially) KDIJ, but confidence is still too low to upgrade beyond
VCSH at this time for precip. Cigs may be close to the MVFR
threshold with these showers at KSUN/KDIJ. Elsewhere, expect winds
to increase as VCSH potential decreases and ends, with a cold front
crossing the region during the afternoon. Strongest winds start 16-
18z/9-11am Monday depending on location. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for the eastern Magic Valley/Snake Plain corridor including
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA, translating into a solid 20g30kts locally at
KPIH/KIDA and still breezy at all other terminals. Still watching
KSUN and KDIJ for the potential to get close to LLWS criteria for a
time Monday afternoon...after reviewing the latest forecast VWPs,
went ahead and added a very borderline LLWS remark to KDIJ starting
at 18z/11am emphasizing winds will be quite strong aloft even with
some mixing to the surface. Winds should drop off quickly everywhere
Monday evening with skies trending toward clear or perhaps FEW high-
level clouds drifting through.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MST Monday for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...01