845
FXUS65 KPIH 291943
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
143 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow showers, including a few thunderstorms, will
  wind down this evening

- Gradual warming trend still expected with a daily chance of
  showers and thunderstorms

- Dry and warm conditions expected for the Fourth of July
  weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Showers and isolated storms associated with this slow moving low
will come to end this evening. Snow has been observed down to
7000ft, if not a bit lower, today. Given the colder
temperatures at the surface and aloft, we could easily small
hail or graupel with heavier showers or storms today. As we are
seeing clearing behind the main area of showers, winds have
picked up especially across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and
adjacent bench areas. Gusts up to 50 mph are still possible
until sunset, but that may be a bit of stretch given we may not
see the maximum amount of sun and mixing to hit that. That said,
it still is breezy enough for a WIND ADVISORY for the Snake
Plain and Magic Valley. A few lingering showers are likely late
tonight and Tuesday morning around Island Park, otherwise
another round of showers and storms are expected across the
central mountains, eastern highlands, and South Hills/Albion
Mountains. With amount of moisture in place after all of the
precipitation this weekend, we will likely see a better chance
of measurable/appreciable rainfall especially across the
central mountains...even with a slightly drier airmass trying to
move in. In fact, while in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow
morning, with lighter winds...we may need to look at including
pockets of stratus and fog to the forecast. Also for tonight, we
will see pockets of frost/freeze conditions for our mid and
higher elevation valleys. It appears the potential is minimal
for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.

For the rest of this week, there are multiple weak "waves"
crossing the state. Although the forecast calls for a gradual
warming trend and drier air overall in place, we are expecting
some showers and thunderstorms around through Friday. Not
everyone will see that potential pop up, but the chance is still
going to be there. For the latter half of this week,
temperatures will be back closer to AVERAGE with highs in the
mid 70s to mid 80s. We should see a dry and warmer Fourth of
July weekend coming our way. By Sunday, highs will push lower
90s across portions of the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and lower
elevations south of the Plain into northern Utah. It will be
interesting to see if this forecast holds, as models have been
struggling trying to build stronger ridges across the West
several days, when the pattern just isn`t that conducive as the
main storm track is over us or across southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

SCT/OVC CIGs in place across eastern Idaho this morning as we
still feel the influence from the area of low pressure. Still
have some SHRA potential with a low, but non-zero, TSRA risk at
KIDA and KDIJ but the rest of the area is likely just limited to
showers at this point. We should begin to see some clearing from
west to east later this afternoon and evening with VFR
conditions likely to prevail regionwide by the time we reach the
overnight. Until then, some intermittent MVFR or even IFR CIGs
will be possible, especially KIDA and KDIJ. Winds will be breezy
until the evening across the valley terminals with gusts upwards
of 25-30 kts possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

RHs remain high today with unusually cold temperatures in place
along with isolated to scattered showers. The showers will continue
to diminish in coverage throughout the afternoon but expecting
showers and storms to ramp up in coverage again Tuesday primarily
across the central mountains with fire weather zones 475, 476 and
the northern half of 422 the primary areas of focus for
showers/storms tomorrow. Winds remain elevated in valley areas today
with gusts 30-40 mph possible in the lower elevations but will
become more relaxed as we move into Tuesday and throughout the
upcoming week. Temperatures will slowly moderate through late week
allowing RHs to get a bit closer to critical levels but should
remain above. It`ll likely won`t be until the weekend when temps
start to warm above seasonal levels that we see critical RHs. There
will be enough moisture in place Wed - Fri to at least support some
isolated virga/dry showers and storms on those days.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan