720
FXUS65 KPIH 121148
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
548 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon.

- Isolated showers and storms in the central mountains and
  Montana Divide region on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures through the duration of the
  forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Upper level trough situated along the West coast will keep
moisture streaming into Southeast Idaho in southwest flow aloft
for Thursday and Friday, supporting another round of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today. HREF shows
convective initiation around 2 PM across central Idaho, with
storms and showers lifting northeastward throughout the
afternoon and early evening. Models indicate a widespread 15% to
30% thunder risk today with the entirety of Southeast Idaho in
the Storm Prediction Center`s general thunder risk. Storms will
be capable of producing gusty outflow winds 40 to 50 mph and
small hail. Precipitation amounts look to be very modest, with
only a few hundredths expected out of most of these showers,
although a stronger storm or training storms could result in a
tenth or more in isolated areas. Looking ahead to Friday, the
bulk of activity will be to our north, with the northern half of
the CWA in a general thunder risk outlook on Friday. Temperatures
will continue to run around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest will mean warming
temperatures and mostly dry conditions across Southeast Idaho over
the weekend. Daytime highs will reach up to 15 degrees above
climatological norms, with 80s and potentially even low 90s across
the valleys with 60s and 70s in the mountains. 500mb ensemble
clusters suggest the breakdown of the ridge Monday into Tuesday as a
trough swings through, although long-range models show the bulk of
moisture confined to the northeastern mountains and further north.
This system will bring breezy winds and cool temperatures by several
degrees early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be
light overall today outside of thunderstorms. There will be
another round of showers and thunderstorms across the area by
mid to late afternoon into the early evening. Have added a
PROB30 for thunderstorms for all sites except KSUN, though
models show showers and thunderstorms in the Shoshone area just
south of the KSUN airport. PROB30 may need to be added for KSUN
as well. Outflow winds for thunderstorms will be around 30 to
40 mph. Only a shower/thunderstorm directly on station would
drop a site briefly out of VFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
early evening with moisture moving into the area in southwest flow
aloft. Gusty outflow winds of around 30 to 40 mph are likely with
any thunderstorms. Small hail is also likely with thunderstorms.
High temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s across the area.
The area begins to dry out again by Friday and into the weekend with
temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...TW