802
FXUS65 KPIH 171805
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1105 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory for South Hills, eastern Magic Valley, and Snake
  River Plain through this morning.

- Winter Weather Advisory for Central Mountains and Eastern
  Highlands tonight through this morning.

- Winter Storm Warning for Bear River Range through early
  Thursday morning.

- More snow Tuesday night into Wednesday for many.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

First storm is moving through the region this morning.
High elevation snow is falling ahead of a cold front which is
pushing through east Idaho during the early morning hours. We have
seen gusty conditions in many parts of south Idaho with several
reports in the 40s and 50s. Expect the winds to weaken below
advisory levels by afternoon. We could see some light snow down to
the valley floors for a couple hours this morning after the cold
front passes. However accumulations look light as drier air will
quickly work into the region. Current headlines still look
reasonable with a storm total of up to 8 inches below 7000 feet and
up to a foot above 7000 feet.

Almost as soon as the first storm exits, the second storm moves into
the area. We`ll see showers ahead of this second system arrive late
this afternoon. Snow levels will be down to valley floors so
anything that falls will stick. However, the better accumulations
will likely hold off until late tonight into Wednesday morning when
the low pressure system works through the region. Like the first
system, we will see some southerly winds ahead of a cold front which
will limit our precipitation totals. Am very concerned about
forecast snow totals with this second system. Have the highest
confidence in the snow totals across the eastern highlands where
nearly all models show widespread snow for several hours late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The lower elevations will likely see
3 to 8 inches with up to a foot on upper slopes and ridges. Forecast
snow amounts in the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley range from
1 to 3 inches. But the best probabilities are generally under 2
inches. The GFS qpf seems to be the real driver for snowfall in the
Snake Plain while many of the other high resolution models show
lesser amounts, perhaps accounting for some downslope effects. As
with the current system. Best chances for snow in the Snake Plain
and Magic Valley seem to be for a few hours along and behind the
front when the downslope effects are lessened. It looks like there`s
a greater than 50% chance that some areas in the Snake Plain and
eastern Magic Valley could reach wind advisory levels for a brief
time Wednesday afternoon.

Chances for light snow continue through the end of the week as the
upper trough swings through the region. However, snow amounts look
light with little or no impacts expected. Still looks like mainly
dry weather for the weekend with a ridge amplifying overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1051 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Will have gusty winds at PIH, IDA and DIJ this afternoon in the
20 to 30 knot range with sustained speeds 10 to 20 knots. Will
die down after sunset. Expect mainly VFR conditions through this
afternoon and early evening but with the next storm system
dropped all sites to the MVFR to IFR level between 08Z and 18Z
Wednesday with low ceilings and reduced visibility. Will be less
than 20 percent chance for LIFR at all sites with the highest
chance at DIJ. Main feature of forecast is the potential for
some widespread snow tonight into Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for IDZ052>054.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for IDZ060.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
IDZ061>064-066-067-071>074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMM/13
AVIATION...GK