


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
720 FXUS65 KPIH 121148 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 548 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon. - Isolated showers and storms in the central mountains and Montana Divide region on Friday. - Above normal temperatures through the duration of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Upper level trough situated along the West coast will keep moisture streaming into Southeast Idaho in southwest flow aloft for Thursday and Friday, supporting another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. HREF shows convective initiation around 2 PM across central Idaho, with storms and showers lifting northeastward throughout the afternoon and early evening. Models indicate a widespread 15% to 30% thunder risk today with the entirety of Southeast Idaho in the Storm Prediction Center`s general thunder risk. Storms will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds 40 to 50 mph and small hail. Precipitation amounts look to be very modest, with only a few hundredths expected out of most of these showers, although a stronger storm or training storms could result in a tenth or more in isolated areas. Looking ahead to Friday, the bulk of activity will be to our north, with the northern half of the CWA in a general thunder risk outlook on Friday. Temperatures will continue to run around 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest will mean warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions across Southeast Idaho over the weekend. Daytime highs will reach up to 15 degrees above climatological norms, with 80s and potentially even low 90s across the valleys with 60s and 70s in the mountains. 500mb ensemble clusters suggest the breakdown of the ridge Monday into Tuesday as a trough swings through, although long-range models show the bulk of moisture confined to the northeastern mountains and further north. This system will bring breezy winds and cool temperatures by several degrees early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 537 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be light overall today outside of thunderstorms. There will be another round of showers and thunderstorms across the area by mid to late afternoon into the early evening. Have added a PROB30 for thunderstorms for all sites except KSUN, though models show showers and thunderstorms in the Shoshone area just south of the KSUN airport. PROB30 may need to be added for KSUN as well. Outflow winds for thunderstorms will be around 30 to 40 mph. Only a shower/thunderstorm directly on station would drop a site briefly out of VFR conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with moisture moving into the area in southwest flow aloft. Gusty outflow winds of around 30 to 40 mph are likely with any thunderstorms. Small hail is also likely with thunderstorms. High temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s across the area. The area begins to dry out again by Friday and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cropp LONG TERM...Cropp AVIATION...TW FIRE WEATHER...TW