Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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072
FXUS65 KPIH 041941
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1241 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thu afternoon. Complicated low has a
boundary crossing through this afternoon, raising wind speeds,
mostly. But a second stronger cold front is still on track to
bring snow and low elevation rain and snow as early as late this
afternoon in the central Idaho mountains, but most will not see
precipitation until after 05/00Z this early evening. The amounts
are still light to moderate, with the focus being in eastern Idaho
between Interstate 15 and the entire WY-ID border. Moderate snow
is staying above 7000ft elevation. So the Winter Weather Advisory
still looks appropriate at this time, and have continued the
headlines. Snow actually peaks during Tue morning and afternoon
for this region.

The front is very strong, and wind will be even stronger with the
second feature. Expect close to Wind Advisory for the mountains,
with gusts above 50 mph, and gusts to 40 mph in the Snake River
plain, with the lone exception the Mud Lake to Dubois region which
will be sheltered at first. Gusts drop off strongly by Tue
afternoon, except for Cassia County.

With the kind of wind this storm is bringing, it would be logical
to assume a large temperature difference behind this front, and it
appears that way, with temperatures in the teens in the mountains
and 20s in the Snake River plain, to mostly single digits in the
mountains and teens in the Snake River plain for Tue night.
Temperatures Tue will struggle to reach 40 deg F at the lower
elevations, and same for Wed with the surge of cold air, despite
mostly sunny conditions on Wed.

The rest of this period is sunny days and clear nights. It will
take until the extended period for temperatures to modify to
warmer conditions. The sunshine is due to high pressure, which
means light wind for the remainder of this period after Tue
afternoon. The slow warming is due to a northerly airflow the
keeps bringing in cold air from Montana and Canada. Messick

.LONG TERM...Fri through next Mon night. Fri and most of Sat
appeared to have a strong ridge dominating. This is the point at
which the model clusters start showing sharp differences in the
handling of the next low. The NBM now brings in slight chance to
chance of snow everywhere by Sat night. This is due to the
retreating high and more zonal flow with most guidance, but about
40 percent of the solutions indicate another, weak, trough moving
into the region. Things are a little more sure for Mon, so would
not be surprised to see some wild shifting around for Sat night
and Sun the next couple of days. Messick

&&

.AVIATION...Winds will be breezy for the rest of today and will
continue to increase in magnitude ahead of and along the front,
peaking between Midnight and sunrise tomorrow morning. Sustained
winds will generally range 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 35 kts at
KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI and remain under 20 kts at KSUN and KDIJ.
Precipitation will enter the central mountains near sunset and is
expected to be in the vicinity of the remaining terminals between
02z and 04z. Rain/snow mix will be likely below 5,000 feet
elevation late tonight before snow levels drop behind the front.
Snow will likely then become the sole precipitation type beginning
around sunrise Tuesday. Total snow accumulation through Tuesday
night will be much lighter further west, with only an inch of snow
forecast at KSUN, zero to a few tenths in our valleys, and around
3" at KDIJ. VFR to MVFR CIGs and VIS are forecast with IFR or
LIFR VIS possible under more organized/moderate snow at KSUN and
KDIJ. Cropp


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST
Tuesday for IDZ060>066.

&&

$$