432
FXUS65 KPIH 300557
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1157 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon thunderstorm chances continue to dwindle

- Increasing HeatRisk issues Friday and Saturday as highs push
  to around 100

- Critical to near-critical fire conditions possible the next
  few days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger this morning, before
we see some resurgence this afternoon. Higher chances are
similar locations as Wednesday. There is a 30-70% chance for
gusts over 35 mph, potentially peaking at 45-50 mph. The deeper
push of monsoon moisture is moving away, but some decent
downpours are possible again through this evening. One last gasp
for thunderstorms is expected Friday with isolated storms
across the central mountains, eastern and southeastern
highlands, and across the Snake Plain. Storms will be dry,
although the chance for outflow gusts over 35 mph is down to
10-40%. Temperatures should be warmer both days, with some spots
pushing 100 Friday afternoon.

A prolonged stretch of dry weather begins this weekend, as high
pressure is strongest on Saturday, then giving way next week to
a dry and breezy westerly flow. We will likely see some low to
mid 100s Saturday. HeatRisk impacts will peak Saturday, and we
may need at least a HEAT ADVISORY for Saturday...if not both
Friday and Saturday. With the ridge breaking down and
transitioning to westerly flow, winds will likely be strongest
Saturday and Sunday. We MAY be approaching thresholds for Lake
Wind conditions on American Falls Reservoir and a Wind Advisory
across portions of the Snake Plain. Initially highs will drop
back into the 80s and low 90s early next week, which is actually
AVERAGE for the first week of August. It does appear though we
push back into the low/mid 90s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 927 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Storms expected to diminish overnight with light winds in most
places. Models suggest another round of storms around PIH, IDA
and DIJ tomorrow afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and reduced
visibilities are possible near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Monsoon moisture continues to be tough to fully push out of
here, as it now appears we may even see a few storms on Friday.
The overall chance is dwindling though as deeper moisture is on
its way out of here. The pattern today looks similar, spatially,
as the best chance of storms will be across higher terrain.
There will likely be some spillover into the Snake Plain along
outflow boundaries and stronger storms holding together. There
is some potential for some decent downpours, but it doesn`t
appear as widespread and likely as Wednesday. There is a 30-70%
chance for gusts over 35 mph today, peaking at 45-50 mph. Those
chances are even lower tomorrow, at 10-40% as coverage becomes
more isolated.

Temperatures will continue to warm up, with highs peaking
Saturday. Valley temperatures will push 95-105, with mountain
temperatures in the 80s. Very dry air moves as the monsoon
moisture shifts away from us. We are expecting a classic
breakdown of the ridge after a prolonged period of southwest
flow and monsoon driven thunderstorms. This takes place Sunday,
with strong westerly flow developing and locking into place for
next week. This will drop temperatures initially early next
week, BUT dry air remains in place. Winds will be increasing for
the Saturday-Monday timeframe, but remain elevated beyond that.
Looking at the potential for Red Flag conditions, we will
pushing that today with borderline scattered thunderstorms
across Zones 413 and 427. Coverage will be isolated tomorrow, so
no issues expected other than maybe holdovers. We will likely
see critical fire weather conditions across the central
mountains, much of the Snake Plain and across Zone 411 on
Saturday. The potential spreads south into the Magic Valley and
pockets of Zones 413 and 427 on Sunday due to strong winds and
very low humidity. Critical to near-critical conditions are
possible almost daily next week.


&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Air quality alerts were re-issued for Blaine, Lincoln, Minidoka,
and Cassia Counties for the next 24 hours due to proximity and
ideal trajectory of smoke from wildfires.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT Thursday for IDZ051-055>057-
073>075.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes
AIR QUALITY...Messick