963
FXZS60 NSTU 070047
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
147 PM SST Sat Dec 6 2025

.Short term [tonight through Monday night]...
A low pressure system developing over Fiji has turned surface
winds out of the northeast, this low will move southward and
meander between Fiji and New Zealand through the short term
forecast period, holding the northeastly flow across the area.
These northeasterly surface winds will begin increasing in speed
tonight. Wind speeds may reach as high as 20 mph at times through
the short term forecast period. As low-level winds have turned
northeasterly, a general increase in atmospheric moisture and
instability has been observed on the past few RAOB upper-air
soundings. The low-level northeasterly flow will continue to pull
equatorial moisture over the territory, which is expected to
increase showers to numerous by late Sunday. Numerous showers
should then remain over the territory through Monday night. Minor
isolated flooding will likely be possible. However, the threat for
widespread flash flooding appears low at this time, as the
heaviest rainfall activity is forecast to remain west of the
territory.

.Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]...
The low pressure system will continue to move southward, closer
to New Zealand with time. As the low pressure moves further away
from the area, its impact on the wind field over American Samoa
will decrease. This is forecast to lead winds to turn out of the
east and slightly weaken by Tuesday, with showers decreasing to
scattered Tuesday afternoon.

By late Thursday into Friday, a surface convergence (trough) is
expected to develop over the islands. This is forecast to bring
numerous to widespread showers over American Samoa by late week
into next weekend. It is too early to determine if there will be
potential for flash flooding at this time.

Tropical development is not expected within 300 nautical miles of
American Samoa over the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
Seas have not begun to build as quickly as models projected, and
currently remain around 5 feet at Aunu`u and Poloa buoys. Still,
as winds increase, seas are still likely to build to Small Craft
Advisory levels (6 to 8 feet) tomorrow. With peak period times
remaining in the 10 to 15 second range, High Surf Advisory
criteria may be met as well tomorrow. These rough conditions
should remain through Tuesday night, by Wednesday seas will
subside due to decreased winds across the area.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Barton