350
FXZS60 NSTU 300049
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
149 PM SST Tue Sep 29 2026

.DISCUSSION
Upper air observations (RAOB) and the latest precipitable water
(PWAT) model data show dry conditions across the area. This is due
mainly to moisture being pushed west and north of the area by a
moderate to strong trade wind flow, as it holds fair weather
patterns across the islands. These features are likely to remain
over the territory tonight through the weekend. Brief isolated to
scattered showers embedded within the wind flow may move across
the islands from time to time for this time frame. The strong and
elongated high pressure system producing the aforementioned
trades will continue to migrate east. Once the high pressure
system exits the region, trade winds will weaken and the trough
to the north with an embedded low pressure system is expected to
move closer to the islands, incresing the potential for showers.
However, models also show another strong high pressure system
from the southwest migrating east, pushing the trough again
northward.

Thus, expect isolated to scattered showers with breezy conditions
for the rest of the week, increasing showers to numerous and
decreasing winds to a moderate flow for the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.Marine...
Hazardous and breezy conditions remain across the coastal waters,
especially for the south to southeast to east facing shorelines.
The fresh to strong trades will continue to hold choppy seas,
higher surfs and strong rip currents for the rest of the forecast
period. Model data show seas and winds building and increasing,
respectively, on Wednesday night through at least Thursday night,
likely peaking at warning level. By Saturday through the end of
the period, models are showing winds slightly subsiding to a
moderate east flow, and therefore, seas will also subside. In the
meantime, the threat of hazardous seas, high surfs, and strong
rip currents remain for tonight through at least Friday.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen