579
FXZS60 NSTU 160038
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
138 PM SST Sun Jun 15 2025

.Discussion...
The trough mentioned in previous forecasts has shifted over the
Islands today, bringing an uptick in showers, as seen in recent
surface observations. Meanwhile, the latest upper-air sounding
indicates that the strong inversion present in recent days has
weakened, allowing for increased moisture associated with the
trough.

Model guidance suggests the trough will remain over the Samoa
region through Tuesday. However, the risk of flash flooding
remains low, as this is a shallow surface trough rather than a
deep one. Any showers that do develop are expected to be brief.
Forecast updates will be made as new data becomes available.

By midweek, a high pressure system is forecast to build near New
Zealand. This will gradually push the trough northward and user in
strong southeast trade winds expected to persist through Saturday.
Despite the shift, the trough`s proximity will continue to support
showers embedded within the trade wind flow trough the remainder
of the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
A downward trend in sea conditions was expected this morning as
winds subsided. However, seas remain elevated at 6 to 8 feet due
to a strong south swell. This is supported by the latest Aunu`u
PacIOOS buoy data, showing peak wave periods of up to 16 seconds.
Despite light and variable winds, high surf and strong rip
currents are still expected due to these swells.

Model data indicates that seas will gradually diminish through
tonight and remain relatively calm through Tuesday. The incoming
south swell that was anticipated yesterday only arrived this
morning, which has delayed the expected decrease in wave heights.
As a result, swells are now projected to subside by Tuesday,
instead of Monday. However, building trade winds beginning
Tuesday night will likely lead to hazardous ocean conditions as
winds are estimated around 25 knots (about 30 mph).

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM