824
FXZS60 NSTU 130108
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
208 PM SST Wed Nov 12 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to numerous showers continues
throughout the day as an active trough lingers nearby. Single cell
convections building over and near the islands has kept passing
showers with relatively humid conditions in the area. These
conditions are expected to remain through at least Saturdy night
as a high pressure system to the south holds the trough in the
area. Instability remains in the area as shown in the upper air
observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (12/00Z). Light winds
continue with a conditionally unstable atmospheric profile, with
possible brief heavy showers. Therefore, expect scattered to
numerous showers with possible thunderstorms and light winds to
remain for tonight through at least Saturday.

Model data shows a low pressure system developing over the Fiji
Islands on Sunday, then move south as it dissipates. Model data
also shows the aforementioned high pressure system strengthening
as it continues to hold a trough in the area. Expect numerous
showers with gentle to moderate southeast winds for the end of the
long term forecast period. Nevertheless, with model uncertainty
increasing after 3 days, the model trends help guide forecasts for
decision making as the time progresses.

Thus, there is a low probability of any tropical system to
develop or move into the area of responsibility (300 nm from
Tutuila) within the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas (swell and wind-driven) of 4 to 6 feet with periods
around 12 to 14 seconds long remains across the American Samoa
coastal waters, especially the southwest shorelines. Also
consistent with the light and variable breeze over the area. Model
data shows two sets of swells slightly impacting the area from
the south-southwest and west-northwest. The current swell from the
southwest will remain through tonight. However, the long period
northwest swell that model data was showing throughout the week
will reach shores by Thursday, likely impacting the west to
northwest shorelines. Model data also show seas gradually
building through the new week. With seas building to near advisory
thresholds (10 feet) on Sunday night, coupled with the long
periods peaking around 18 seconds, strong rip currents and higher
surfs will likely be the main threats for this time frame. Will
continue to monitor conditions and issue alerts as prompted.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen