Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
599 FXZS60 NSTU 040042 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 142 PM SST Fri Oct 3 2025 .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite imageries show the trough axis positioned over the islands as passing showers move across the territory throughout the day. Gentle to moderate easterlies with embedded showers will continue for tonight through at least Sunday night. Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (04/00Z) supports these conditionally stable atmospheric criteria. Even more supportive of these conditions is a mid-level high pressure system anchoring over the area. As shown in the last couple of RAOBs including this afternoon, a dry mid to upper level atmospheric profile indicates cloud suppression, keeping moisture contents concentrated at the surface level. This phenomena will remain through at least early Monday. By Monday afternoon, model data is showing another high pressure system to the southwest migrating east and pushing a boundary layer eastward. This boundary layer is expected to keep moisture over the area, also increasing the potential for showers. As this high pressure system migrates east, winds will increase to a fresh breeze as it turns southeast. Therefore, expect scattered to numerous showers with a gentle to fresh easterly breeze before turning southeast on Tuesday. Showers will likely be heavy at times with possible thunderstorms through at least Sunday night. There is no threat of flash flooding and strong winds expected for this forecast period. && .Marine... No significant swell is expected for this forecast period. The latest observations from the PacIOOS buoys show heights remaining below advisory thresholds for the last 12 to 16 hours. These observations indicate easterlies easing off as the aforementioned trough still lingers over the islands. Easterlies have also been gentle in the morning hours of the day and are slowly increasing to a moderate breeze this afternoon. Although winds will slightly increase tonight, seas are to remain at favorable conditions throughout the forecast period. By the end of the forecast period, seas will slightly elevate. Thus, the advisory for small crafts will remain in effect through at least Saturday night as winds will likely peak at a fresh east breeze for this time frame. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen