660
FXZS60 NSTU 160100
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
200 PM SST Sat Nov 15 2025

.Short term [tonight through Monday night]...
Two distinct sruface troughs have been observed via satellite in
the surrounding area througout the day. One is located to the
north of the territory near the Tokelau island chain, and a
considerably stronger trough to the south and west near the Fiji
island chain. The increased moisture in the area resulting from
the nearby troughs is bringing numerous passing showers with
isolated thunderstorm activity to the area. Showers are likely to
further increase to widespread tomorrow afternoon as the trough
over the Fiji region moves closer and winds turn out of the
northeast. The most widespread heavy rainfall activity is
expected to remain to the south of the territory. However,
localized heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are still possible.

.Long term...
By Tuesday, the surface convergence and primary trough should
move further southward from the territory. However, it is expected
to remain close enough to provide sufficient remnant moisture to
support numerous passing showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. Winds will likely become light and variable over
this midweek time frame. By late week into the weekend, the trough
is expected to move back north and over the territory, increasing
the potential for flash flooding and thunderstorms. Convergent
easterly winds are likely to build over the territory for this
time frame.

The past three runs of the operational GFS model depict a
tropical low developing near American Samoa as the trough moves
back over the territory by late week. The chance of this scenario
occurring remains very low at this time (10% potential tropical
formation chance according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
as the GFS is only one model out of the large suite of available
model data, and forecast accuracy is much lower beyond three
days. However, the run-to-run consistency of this GFS trend is
still concerning enough that it will need to be closely monitored
going forward.

&&

.Marine...
Seas have been increasing throughout the day, with combined seas
now observed in the 6 to 8 foot range at Aunu`u buoy. Given peak
period times around 15 seconds associated with a north swell,
critieria is met for High Surf Advisory. Therefore, Advisories
for High Surfs and Small Crafts are now both in effect. Seas will
remain rough throughout the week, likely peaking Monday in the 7
to 9 feet range as a fresh breeze to the southeast of the
territory generates a strong short period swell across the
territorial waters. Seas could increase 7 to 9 feet again late
week as easterly winds build across the territorial waters.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

Barton