247
FXZS60 NSTU 120036
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
136 PM SST Wed Jun 11 2025

.Short term [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

The past several RAOB observations depict a persistent, deep and
strong mid-level inversion associated with a very dry mid-level
air mass. These conditions are unfavorable for cloud growth and
robust rainfall activity. If rainfall occurs, it should be light
and brief given the unfavorable environment for convective
activity. Model proximity soundings for American Samoa suggest
that this strong inversion will remain over the region through the
short term period, keeping rainfall chances low (20 to 40%).

Persistent high pressure to the south and lower pressure to the
north of the territory are leading to gusty trade winds across the
islands. Winds out of the east are currently observed at 15 to 20
mph with higher gusts, and these winds are forecast to persist
throughout the short term period.


.Long term [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

The high pressure to the south will begin to weaken this weekend,
leading to trade winds decreasing 10 to 15 mph by Sunday and
becoming variable on Monday. During this pattern change, moisture
convergence will help to weaken the strong inversion and increase
rainfall chances across the area. Flash flooding is not expected.

&&

.Marine...

Gusty easterly trade winds are maintaining rough seas of 7 to 9
feet across the coastal waters of American Samoa. The combination
of these trade winds and south swells will contribute to surfs of
9 to 12 feet and strong rip currents for south and east facing
shores through at least Friday night. As winds decrease this
weekend, seas will subside to below advisory threshold Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$


JTAllen/Barton