071
AXPQ20 PGUM 220007
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1007 AM ChST Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The NET extends from 5N130E to 4N142E, where it turns southeast
and exits Guam`s AOR at EQ155E. Convergence along the NET
continues to produce widely scattered showers and an occasional
thunderstorm near it. This NET is expected to remain in place the
next few days with a circulation probably developing along it
south or southeast of Yap.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough is weakening as it stretches from southeast of
Chuuk near 5N154E, extending through Chuuk before ending northwest
of there near 10N149E. Widespread clouds and showers with isolated
thunderstorms have been persistent with this feature the last
couple of days, and this looks to continue the next 24 hours as
the trough gets absorbed by the nearby NET just to the south and
west.

Another surface trough stretches from west of Makin in the
southern RMI, with this trough extending northeast from 3N169E to
10N180. Widely scattered showers are developing along this
feature, although moisture depth and surface convergence is
somewhat modest for this time of year. This feature denotes the
leading edge of an ITCZ that`s trying to strengthen and build
west. This trough will continue moving west the next few days with
similar convective coverage expected.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
Today the trade-wind surge has weakened as expected, based on
scatterometry analysis and model trends as the pressure gradient
begins to relax. The surge has expanded west though, now centered
from 140E to the Date Line and beyond, between 8N and 22N. It
remains in an east-northeast to west-southwest orientation.
However, the area of 20+ knot winds has decreased as the surge
elongates. Still, 15 to 25 knot winds with seas of 7 to 10 feet
remain common with this surge, with the stronger winds confined to
east of 160E, due to closer proximity to the high pressure to the
north. This has allowed the gradient to be a little stronger
here, thus the wind increase. With that said, this feature (the
trade-wind surge) is expected to continue gradually weakening
through the weekend.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ continues to struggle making westward progress while
strengthening, as a good streamline convergence is observed east
of the Date Line, similar to the past few days. Convective
coverage is also much better there. The models do show a "push" of
moisture getting shoved west with the Majuro trough, with the
center axis of convergence lifting north as evident in model wind
fields and the latest GFS GDI forecasts. This would favor the
better coverage of convection to be found from 7N through 12N if
the models forecasts verify, with this taking shape over the next
several days. However, the models have really struggled to
accurately portray convective influences of the ITCZ and if it`ll
remain fragmented, similar to the past few days, or consolidate
like it`s trying to do now. Time will tell. Stay tuned.

$$

Doll