177
AXPQ20 PGUM 220114
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1114 AM ChST Sat Aug 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
Typhoon Saudel (17W) continues it`s approach to the far northern
CNMI, with it currently located 50 miles east-southeast of Pagan
near 18N156E. Recent visible imagery showing an eye becoming
better defined with a CDO (central Dense Overcast) becoming more
apparent. Saudel is moving northwest at 15 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course and speed through Sunday. This
general forecast track will take Typhoon Saudel close to Agrihan
this evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 mph.
Saudel is forecast to intensify the next few days, with a general
west-northwest track continuing.

Most of the heavier convection has been consistently located
across the western semicircle of the typhoon, as it appears to be
fighting a bit of wind shear. Seas are estimated to be around 30
feet, per the JTWC analysis. These seas will continue to increase
somewhat as Saudel strengthens more, potentially becoming more
symmetric with time.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...
Invest 97W, which is currently rated as "Low" from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is located west-northwest of Yap
near 10N136E. The low rating implies that a tropical cyclone is
not expected to form within the next 24 hours, as it slowly drifts
west-northwest. After that, we expect the tropical disturbance to
lift north-northeast based on pattern recognition and model
forecasts, with the overall pattern conducive for another
tropical cyclone to potentially form sometime next week, as it
tracks generally northward across the open Philippine Sea.
However, 97W looks to get absorbed into Saudel`s circulation
towards the middle to end of next week, possibly a little sooner.

Then, much further to the southeast, we have an area of disturbed
weather with a LLCC (Low Level Circulation Center) present
northeast of Majuro near 8N172E. This disturbance is located along
the monsoon trough, as is 97W. Here as well, we expect the
disturbance to lift generally north (more so north-northwest with
time), also with the potential to become labeled as an invest
over the next 48 hours or so.

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough enters Guam`s AOR at 8N130E and extends
northeast through 97W to Saudel. It then dives southeast, as it
narrowly bypasses Pohnpei and Kosrae (the trough is located just
northeast of them), before curling east, then northeast to link up
with the Majuro disturbance. It then continues northeast to
12N180, leaving Guam`s AOR. The greatest concentration of
convection, some of which is locally intense, is located near 97W,
Saudel, and the Majuro disturbance, as one would expect. Along
the remainder of the trough, convection of a scattered to locally
numerous variety, is tied to the immediate north side of the
trough east/southeast of Saudel, and north/northwest of the trough
axis west of Saudel, as surface convergence and moisture pooling
(higher PWATs) are co-located.

This trough is expected to lift northward for a short period of
time, as the tropical systems augment its orientation. With that
said, an active west to southwesterly flow will continue well into
next week. This will be most pronounced Sunday through Tuesday
from Koror and Yap through the Marianas, as the southwesterly
monsoon flow strengthens, with increasing shower and thunderstorm
development likely, in addition to locally heavy rainfall.

$$

Doll