059
FXUS66 KPQR 142132
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
232 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow will maintain seasonable temperatures
through much of the coming week. Chances for light rain return
to the coast Monday night into Tuesday and inland Tuesday night
into Wednesday, with minimal amounts expected. Better rain
chances look to return to the area Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Little change in the upper level pattern today as
a deep low centered near Haida Gwaii maintains broad upper level
troughing over the NE Pacific and robust onshore flow across the
Pacific Northwest. Marine stratus has once again been stubborn
to erode and has held temperatures down around 60 degrees thus
far today north and west of a Portland to Tillamook line. Other
parts of the area are under mostly clear skies, with
temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and looking to top out
in the low 70s today from Salem to Eugene as a result.
Remaining stratus is showing signs of dissipating on visible
satellite as of 2 PM Saturday, which should allow highs to reach
at least into the mid to upper 60s in the Portland area through
early this evening.

Expect temperatures to run a little warmer across the area on
Sunday in response to modest 500 mb height rises and 850 mb
temps climbing to around 10-12 C. This will correspond to highs
closer to the upper 70s through the interior valleys. Locations
in the Willamette Valley currently show around a 25% chance to
reach 80 degrees from Portland to Salem, with lower
probabilities toward Eugene. Onshore flow maintains similar
conditions across the area through Tuesday as highs reach the
upper 70s each day in the interior valleys and stay closer to
the low 60s along the coast. Models continue to keep the area
dry through Monday as energy associated with an embedded
shortwave trough now passes mostly south of the area into
California. Light rain chances are present along the coast
Monday night into Tuesday, but QPF amounts remain minimal at
this time. The better chance of rain still looks to come Tuesday
night into Wednesday as another shortwave and associated surface
front cross the area. However, still do not expect much rainfall
across the area as the probability to receive a tenth of an inch
remains around 10% in the Portland area and below 5% across the
rest of the Willamette Valley, with a 25-40% chance for a tenth
of an inch along northern coastal areas and parts of southwest
WA.

Thursday will feature a return of dry conditions with
temperatures running a few degrees cooler in the low to mid 70s
behind the mid week system. Not much change in thinking from
Friday into next weekend as medium range ensembles continue to
advertise better rain chances with the arrival of deeper upper
level troughing over the Pacific Northwest. Rainfall amounts
still do not look overly impressive, but the chance for a
wetting rain of a quarter inch ranges from 30-40% along the
coast to 20-30% over the interior valleys, with nearly all
ensemble members depicting at least some measurable rain the
interior valley locations from Friday into Saturday of next
week. /CB

&&

.AVIATION...A broad upper level trough remains over the region,
continuing north to northwesterly winds at the surface through the
TAF period. Inland winds will remain around 5-10 kt through the
period, highest during the afternoon. Along the coast from now
until 06Z Sunday, winds will range between 10-15 kt with gusts up
to 25 kt, then decrease to 5-10 kt thereafter.

Conditions will stay VFR through most of today, with CIGs
around FL035 to FL050 scattering out through the afternoon. By
06-08Z Sunday, MVFR conditions will likely return to the coast
(mostly KTMK and northward). There is a 30-50% chance of MVFR
conditions for KAST, while only a 10-20% chance at KONP.

*KTTD ASOS is currently INOP except for altimeter and will be AMD
 NOT SKED.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions to persist through the
TAF period. Low end VFR CIGs around FL045 will continue to clear
out through the afternoon. North to northwesterly winds 5-10 kt,
highest in the afternoon.
~Hall

&&

.MARINE...North/northwesterly flow continues, with diurnally
driven peaks in the afternoon. Winds 15-20 kt expected with gusts
to around 25 kt south of Cape Falcon to Florence this afternoon
and evening. A short, low end Small Craft has been issued and is
in effect until 2 AM tomorrow (Sunday). Seas are generally wind
driven at 3 to 5 ft. This pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend.

A weak disturbance is expected to cross the region on Monday,
supporting southerly winds. A westerly swell is also expected to
move into the waters late Monday, generally around 5 ft at 10
seconds. Combined seas still look to remain 7 ft or less through
next week.
~Hall/Batz

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-253-272-
     273.
&&

$$

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