385
FXUS65 KPSR 030031
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
531 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with mostly sunny skies can be expected today,
  but flooding of area creeks, streams, and rivers will continue
  through least tonight, following runoff from significant
  rainfall over the past few days.

- Flooding in some of the major waterways like the Salt River may
  persist through the week.

- Dry and seasonal weather conditions are expected over the next
  several days, with lower desert highs gradually rising from the
  mid 70s to upper 70s by the end of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Latest 3-day gauge measured rainfall and radar estimates show a
large area east and northeast of Phoenix, in the foothills and
higher terrain, received 5-7 inches and a few spots reached 8
inches. Even though the rain has ended, there is still a significant
amount of runoff moving through the water systems across central AZ.
Several USGS and flood control streamflow gauges are still above
designated action/alarm stages and some are currently in minor to
moderate flood stage. Many areal and river flood warnings will
remain in effect through the rest of today. Unlike winter and spring
snowmelt runoff following a rain event, should subside more quickly.
However, some of the major waterways and watersheds, like the Salt
and Verde systems, will take longer to subside. Possibly through
even most of the week. Salt River Project will continue releasing a
very high volume (over 60000 cfs) of water from Bartlett Dam into
the Verde River, and from Granite Reef Dam into the Salt River.
Impacts on the Salt River downstream of Tempe Town Lake can be
expected as high flows continue. Recreating in the Verde and Salt
rivers will be very dangerous and is strongly discouraged. There
have been multiple fatalities from recreation with similar flows in
the past. Continue to heed all road closures as will and do not
attempt to cross flooded roads.

Latest mid-lvl wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals
the trough of low pressure that passed through our region
yesterday is now entering the Midwestern U.S. while a shortwave
ridge builds in behind this feature over the West Coast. Winds
will be somewhat breezy this afternoon on the backside of the
departing trough, mainly along the lower Colorado River Valley
where gusts could reach 20-25 mph at times. However much of the
region will experience light winds and clear skies through the
rest of this afternoon with highs reaching the mid 60s to low 70s
across the lower deserts. Winds will greatly diminish tonight
after sunset, becoming very light and calm across the area. With
clear skies and light winds along with residual sfc moisture left
over from yesterday`s rain event, there is a chance that patchy
fog could develop in low lying elevations early Tuesday morning.
The most likely location for fog development will be N Pinal
County and the Imperial Valley.

The aforementioned shortwave ridge will pass over the forecast
area tomorrow between the departing upper level trough and another
Pacific low. Model guidance keeps this next Pacific low on a
west- east trajectory through UT and CO on Wednesday. Just about
all this transient low will do to the local area is suppress
heights and keep temperatures from warming more quickly. High
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will rise by a few degrees
area-wide, but still remain around 5 degrees below normal, with
lower desert communities reaching the middle low to mid 70s.
Morning temperatures the next few days will be seasonally cool,
mostly in the 50s across the lower deserts and 40s in higher
elevation communities and some of the typically cooler lower
desert valley spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The long term forecast remains dry and seasonal. There is now
much better confidence in the late week and weekend forecast,
which favors ridging building in across the West and a weak cutoff
low forming over the Pacific west of Baja California. Weak
troughing looks to drag across the local area Friday into Saturday
ahead of the building ridge. Previous forecasts supported slight
rain chances with this trough, but this trough now looks
completely dry and latest NBM PoPs are 5% or less across the
region. These are also the only PoPs in the 7-day forecast. Plenty
of time to dry out fallowing all the rain. Temperatures during
the second half of the week will remain steady near to slightly
below normal and then heading into the weekend temperatures are
likely to trend warmer as the ridging builds into the west. Most
lower deserts may see high temperatures return to the low and
possibly even mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0030Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
No aviation weather issues are expected throughout the TAF
period. The overall wind pattern will follow the more typical
diurnal tendencies with westerly winds persisting through this
evening before shifting out of the east during the late evening
hours with speeds generally aob 6 kts. Extended periods of light
and variable to even calm conditions can be expected. Skies will
be mostly clear with some high cirrus cloud decks moving in
during the overnight period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather issues are expected throughout the TAF period.
Winds at KBLH, will be out of the NW with speeds around 8kt into
the overnight hours, then winds will go light and variable and may
even be calm at times. Winds at KIPL will be light and variable to
calm throughout the period. Clear skies will prevail before some
high cirrus cloud decks move in this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lingering floodwater runoff in area creeks, streams, and rivers
is likely to continue through tonight. Otherwise, rain has ended
and dry seasonal conditions can be expected through the next 7
days. Saturated grounds will help keep surface humidity levels
somewhat elevated. Afternoon minimum RHs today will be around
50-60% across AZ and 25-35% across southeast CA. Despite gradual
drying through the week, the minimum RHs will only fall to around
35-45% across AZ and 20-30% across southeast CA. Overnight
recoveries will remain good through the week, with around 60-80%
max RHs most nights. Winds through the next 7 days will mostly
follow typical diurnal trends with light speeds and modest
afternoon upslope gusts. Some breezier north winds may develop
along the lower Colorado River Valley at times, but with only
minor gusts up to 20-25 mph forecast at this time.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno/Benedict
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...Lojero/Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict