911
FXUS65 KPSR 181906
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1206 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into next week, but
  will be favored in and near the Arizona higher terrain.

- Thunderstorm chances might be more favored again for the lower
  deserts Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures will climb into the week ahead, closer to normal
  levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
The morning showers in the Phoenix valley and into the higher
terrain north and east of Phoenix have been slowly decreasing
midday. A band of heavier rain was noted from NE Maricopa County,
southeast toward Globe/San Carlos with localized 2-3 inches this
morning. The clouds and rain have kept midday temperatures in
these areas in the 70s and 80s so far, but clouds are breaking up
quickly. As this area of showers decreases, areas of northern and
eastern AZ seeing storms quickly develop in higher instability.
Meanwhile, west central and southwest AZ/SE CA remain dry and
stable.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis showing good instability pooling just
northeast of the dry/stable conditions across southwest AZ.
CAPES of 1500-2500 noted with no inhibition in areas outside of
central AZ (including Phoenix)that got rain this morning. So, for
our area, not expecting much more rain/storms as current rains
continue to disipate and the area should remain capped. The only
area seeing a little more destabilization would be far NW Maricopa
County and Northern La Paz County. Later tonight, just like early
this morning, don`t see much of a different scenario with showers
and storms redeveloping after about 2-3 am, impacted much of
central AZ again as the latest Hi-Res is hinting at. This may
once again inhibit late day convection for Sunday for central AZ.
A lot of uncertainty in all this with subtle waves helping to
generate convection. Temperatures should nudge up several degrees
from today, but still remaining below normal, except for the
dry/stable areas of southwest Arizona and southeast CA, keeping
temperatures closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
By early next week, ensemble members and deterministic guidance
suggest the 500 mb ridge axis over the Southern Rockies will
expand ewd into the Southern Plains as the aforementioned easterly
wave is likely to move into southeastern Arizona by Tuesday. This
will foster increasing southeasterly flow and bring additional
moisture into the lower deserts. High terrain storms are more
likely on Monday, with convection expanding in coverage to include
the lower deserts of south- central AZ on Tuesday. NBM PoPs are
on board with this scenario unfolding with chances increasing from
15-30% late Monday to around 30-50% late Tuesday. If Tuesday ends
up being the bigger day, then Wednesday may be a down day
convective wise. This will all depend on the progression of the
mid-lvl easterly wave and convection from the previous day. Model
guidance shows the disturbance eventually moving to our west by
Thursday as the subtropical high is favored to become more
established over New Mexico and West Texas. If the high does
expand wwd and strengthens to around 594-596 dam, we could be in
for a hotter and slightly drier period of weather through the end
of next week.

NBM temperatures are forecast to gradually creep upward by the
latter half of next week, but locations across south-central and
eastern Arizona are expected to remain near normal through at
least Friday. If the ridge does eventually expand further west, we
may eventually have to deal with highs topping 110 degrees again
by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1744Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Early morning SHRA activity is beginning to dissipate, however
lingering SHRA and VCSH is likely to continue for a couple more
hours, with periods of gusts between 15-25kts. Afterwards, by
20-21Z most of the activity is expected to be lifted from around
the terminals as drier conditions will move in during the
afternoon hours. During this time the typical westerly shift is
expected then back out of the east as early as 03Z this evening.
Outside of the lingering SHRA, SCT-BKN clouds aoa 10 kft will be
common throughout much of the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected throughout the TAF
period. At KBLH, winds will generally remain out of the south to
southeast. At KIPL, winds will generally remain out of the
southeast through the afternoon afternoon with a westerly shift
during the evening hours, then returning out of the SE by Sunday
morning. Overall speeds will remain generally under 12 kts. FEW
to SCT clouds aoa 10 kft will be common throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Recent wetting rainfall has resulted in drastic improvements in fuel
moisture across south-central AZ where ERC values have fallen below
the 25th percentile. Additional rounds of beneficial rainfall will
be possible each day through early next week, especially over the
foothills and high terrain of the eastern districts. Winds will
remain light, mostly below 15 mph this weekend and follow typical
diurnal upslope and downvalley patterns. Elevated moisture levels
will keep minimum afternoon humidity above 20% across the western
districts and between 30-40% over the eastern districts.
Overnight recovery will range from fair to good across the western
districts and very good to excellent for the eastern districts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frieders
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno