


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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385 FXUS65 KPSR 140026 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 526 PM MST Mon Oct 13 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect for south-central Arizona through Monday evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect south-central Arizona through early this evening with the heaviest rainfall potential and greatest flood threat over the foothills and higher terrain areas north and east of Phoenix. - Below normal temperatures will be common throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... Early afternoon Water Vapor satellite imagery shows a large upper- level trough centered off the northern CA coastline with cyclonic flow encompassing most of the western CONUS with an upper-level jet streak downstream, providing large scale ascent across most of central and southern AZ. This ascent will combine with the the remnant energy from what was once Tropical Storm Raymond to result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across much of south- central AZ, mainly from the Phoenix area and points eastward through this afternoon. Even though the thunderstorm activity will be quick moving, they will be very efficient rain producers, capable of producing rainfall in excess of one inch in less than a hour. Given the very saturated grounds in place as a result of the heavy rainfall over the weekend, it will not take that much rainfall to produce flash flooding where in some areas it could just take a half an inch in less than one hour. A Flood Watch remains in effect across south-central AZ through early this evening. In addition to the flood threat, there will also be a risk of strong to locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail (1"+ diameter) given that there is currently 40+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear supporting the potential for some organized storm clusters. Heading into this evening through Tuesday, the strong southwesterly flow aloft out ahead of the upper-level trough will eventually scour out most of the boundary layer moisture with PWATs plummeting well below one inch. This should essentially end all rain chances across the region, with some lingering isolated light showers possible across the higher terrain areas later this evening through early Tuesday morning. With the height falls associated with the incoming trough, strong gusty winds are likely across western Imperial County this evening with widespread gusts of 30-40 mph and in excess of 40 mph across the southwest corner of Imperial County where a Wind Advisory is in effect. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Deep negative height anomalies will be lifting and filling into the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the middle of the week bringing pronounced, dry westerly flow into the forecast area. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer moisture rapidly deteriorating during the middle of the week with mixing ratios falling to 5-6 g/kg as early as Wednesday, then never recovering thereafter. Ensemble membership remains in excellent agreement that energy lifting north will leave a trailing, weak trough axis over the SW Conus with H5 heights stuck mostly in a 572-578dm range. Ensemble numerical spread has widened slightly during this period, however still indicates temperatures hovering 4F-8F below normal for much of the latter half of the week. By the weekend, there is good model agreement that some form of shortwave ridging will build into the SW Conus with H5 heights spiking closer to 585dm and temperatures rebounding into a near normal range. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0026Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: A few vicinity showers/storms will continue through the next hour with activity mostly clearing out going forward through the rest of this evening. Expect SCT-BKN CIGs mostly aoa 5 kft to improve through this evening. FEW-SCT decks are expected to redevelop around 3-5 kft tomorrow morning before improving by midday. Winds will vary between the SSE-SSW this evening before switching around to the E tonight. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds will be the main weather issue through Tuesday afternoon under clear skies. West winds will be preferred at KIPL while a S/SW component should be more common at KBLH. Gusts upwards of 25-30 kts will continue this evening with a few gusts upwards of 30-35 kts at KIPL. Blowing dust may continue to result in reduced surface/slantwise visibilities at KIPL. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wetting rain chances will continue today over eastern districts with locally heavy amounts and flooding possible. Drier air across western districts will begin sweeping through the entire region Tuesday. Elevated moisture levels will keep humidity levels in eastern districts above 50% today, then minimum values falling closer to a 40-50% range during the middle of the week and drying further to 25-35% by the weekend. Western districts will generally experience afternoon humidity values 25-35% early this week, then closer to 15-25% late in the week. Erratic and locally gusty winds will common around showers and thunderstorms with more widespread gusty winds affecting the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. Very tranquil conditions will be common late in the week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Flood Watch until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ534-537>563. CA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ562. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...18 AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...18